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Thread: Price for timber to drop?
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5th January 2021, 04:07 PM #31
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5th January 2021 04:07 PM # ADSGoogle Adsense Advertisement
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5th January 2021, 04:40 PM #32
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8th January 2021, 08:57 AM #33SENIOR MEMBER
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Good thought, but Kimbriki is closed at the moment (Big red sign out front saying, "Sorry, closed due to Covid")
I've never had much luck there with recycled timber. They don't seem to have much on hand at any one time. Usually just a few sticks of treated pine and maybe some Oregon occasionally.
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8th January 2021, 09:17 PM #34Woodworking mechanic
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Yep. As Ross said closed due to Covid - May have been caught up in the Northern Beaches lockdown?
I solved the problem by buying new laminated beams the exact size I was after. Good price too
Photos in the Shed section - storage shed thread.
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12th January 2021, 09:12 AM #35SENIOR MEMBER
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FYI - Kimbriki now open again.
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12th January 2021, 01:58 PM #36
Local tip shops tend to have much more hardwood than treated pine, almost always salvaged, often 100+ years old - square nails and all. But you never know what you will find. I have found it best to buy whatever looks useful for the future and the right project almost always comes along. Hard to shop for a specific project.
But their prices are usually less than 10% of BigChain, stuff has been air drying for many years, and the nail holes are free.
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14th January 2021, 08:15 AM #37Senior Member
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A lot of hardwood logs come from private property too
Particularly from gas fields in Qld where the landowner can generate extra income
It's not all plantation grown and not always for woodchip
The volumes being exported are eye watering!
Why in heaven we can't value add our own logs defies logic
Mr Fiddleback
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2nd March 2021, 05:53 PM #38GOLD MEMBER
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Talking to the owner of a local timber yard today and he was saying that the building boom in the USA is pushing up our pine prices/ availability. Most of our T2 pine comes from Europe and the yanks are offering 30% more than we have been paying for it so it is heading there instead of here.
The amount we produce locally is well short of our requirements as well.
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18th August 2021, 02:35 AM #39
Timber prices are... falling :)
Timber prices will soon return to normal.
I thought of this thread (and another which I cannot find) while doing some research for the next investment.
This correction is almost as bad as Bitcoin a while back
screenshot-finviz.com-2021.08.18-01_28_49.png
Prolly another 10% to slide, then it should stabilise, but I'd wager some of the commercial hedging companies (or slow supply chains!) have a LOT of expensive timber to clear....man are they going to get hosed.
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18th August 2021, 06:25 AM #40GOLD MEMBER
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Not sure how that works, you are struggling to buy timber let alone getting it cheaper. I am being told from multiple suppliers to expect double digit price increases
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18th August 2021, 07:33 AM #41GOLD MEMBER
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I do not believe that wood prices for spruce/fir/pine coming from British Columbia will be dropping any time soon.
Even the tourists are being warned to go home, stay home and stay off the water (for the bombers).
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18th August 2021, 09:01 AM #42Woodworking mechanic
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When I contacted the steel company for a quote for my deck, they said they couldn’t deliver for 6 to 8 weeks because they have been inundated due to the lack of timber.
I went to the steel route due to lack o f timber. Hopefully woodpixel’s graph is correct.
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18th August 2021, 10:25 AM #43GOLD MEMBER
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I bought my first house new, very nice. Wooden deck 6' x30'on the back. Ten years and it was too rotten to walk on.
Had it redone in steel with catwalk mesh and indoor/outdoor carpet. Much cheaper in the long run.
There's a new house going up a block down my street right now. Basement walls just about in (synthetic).
I wonder what they are going to use for wood money to do the top.
Just because I live less than 30 minutes from several mills means we pay like everybody else
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18th August 2021, 11:44 AM #44GOLD MEMBER
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IF local demand falls below supply. IF overseas demand falls below supply. IF production cost falls below the current cost. IF freight costs fall.
Then you may see a minor dip in timber prices.
These are all big IF's and require a lot of star alignment to make any sort of significant impact. I wouldn't hold my breath.
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18th August 2021, 03:07 PM #45
Futures pricing and the fun fun fun of the market!
The futures markets are what big traders pay for forward orders.
Last night it dropped another 3% from my chart above. It will drop a lot further (for reasons...).
There are a few core concepts (contango/backwardation... i.e. the price now and what it will be at some time in the future) and currency exchange things, but ultimately one can go onto the futures exchange and say "I'd like to order 40,000kg of pre-ripened hand-kneaded Bavarian cheese in March 2022" and get a price.
Well, maybe not cheese , but Pork Bellies, Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Coffee.... (excuse the movie reference to those who get it).... see here: Futures
The same info is on NASDAQ and simple past data is obtainable if interested.
The probability that these prices are wrong is low. They do of course change according to new-known-facts and wild speculation, that's the nature of trading (to find market pricing) but those are soon hammered out by the large commercial traders (scum), commodity buyers themselves and smaller speculators.
See here for a decent explanation of why/what the LBS is: Lumber Sep '21 Futures Contract Specifications - Barchart.com
This market is open to all. Anyone here can put in a futures order. The key is to SELL IT before one has to take delivery! After all, dealing with the actual product creates its own headaches (i.e. 40,000kg of cheese needs storage!).
These timber prices reflect the reality of what places such as the Big Box stores pay. Their buyers pay/buy these prices/contracts (there are transport, handing costs, storage, blah blah blah) but these are the prices..... explicitly for LBS it is:
"the delivery of 111,000 board feet (one 73-foot rail car) of random length 8 to 12-foot 2 x 4s, the type used in construction. The contract is priced in terms of dollars per thousand board feet."
So, this is what Builder Bob and Chippie Jack can expect to happen to prices! Even here in Oz.... Nice hey
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