Thread: beuro of meteorology

You try compressing a 1500 word meterology report down to 2 sentences

Me too.
I make a living making hay/fodder.
It seems to me the beuro are covering there butts just in case something might happen.
Ever since the severe storm at 'The Gap' in Brisbane where they were criticised for not forewarning, I have found they seem to follow 'computer models'.

It's not an exact science.
Nothing is in Nature, so give them a break.They get it right fairly often, and we only notice when things go wrong.

Originally Posted by weisyboy

i am getting sick of the weather beuro being constantly wrong.

when there not rong its because they used some explanation that onone can make any sence of like
"fine with a shouwer or two about tending to rain wiht a posabel afternoon thunderstorm"

the only job in the world where you can stuff up every day and still get a bonus at teh end of the year.

surly im not teh only one.

I was a professional user of the BoM for many years - I relied on their long- and short-term forcasts to do my work, and certainly didn't find them to be 'constantly wrong'. What's wrong with "fine with a shouwer or two about tending to rain wiht a posabel afternoon thunderstorm" apart from the spelling? I think you'll find that it would read "Mostly fine...", but most people understand the meaning of the terms 'fine', 'shower', & 'thunderstorm'. If you don't, they are defined on the BoM website and other places if you care to go looking. I suppose you'd like them to put out a more precise report, along the lines of 'At Carl's place, it will be fine until 11.03am, when there will be 4.3mm of rain. The sun will come out again at 11.17am, but there will be another 2.8mm between 11.45am and 11.59am. A thunderstorm cell will form over Carl's next door neighbour's place at 3.27pm and move over Carl's place at 3.36, dumping 47.2mm on him in 10 minutes, just as he's about to fire up his mill.
As far as getting a bonus at the end of the year, I can assure you that they don't. They are on a salary, often a pretty ordinary one considering their qualifications. Gratuitous shots like that don't do your argument any good at all.

Originally Posted by astrid

You try compressing a 1500 word meterology report down to 2 sentences

Persactly. If you want them, the longer forecasts are available on the bureau's website. You can also get the synoptic charts (see, they've done some of the work for you already) and do your own forecasts if you reckon you can do a better job.

Originally Posted by Buzzer

Me too.
I make a living making hay/fodder.
It seems to me the beuro are covering there butts just in case something might happen.
Ever since the severe storm at 'The Gap' in Brisbane where they were criticised for not forewarning, I have found they seem to follow 'computer models'.

Sure they use computer models. They're processing information coming in from thousands of weather and river stations in Australia, plus overseas and at sea. The bloke who used to do it with an abacus and slate retired last year.

i dont expect the to be exact but i would like to be able to look at theer site with some confidence. why dont tehy do like they do in america and say the is a 50% chance of rain or a 10 % changce of rain.

my work depends on the weather if i took notice of teh beauro i would spend a lot of nice fine days at home.

Well said, AlexS. I've tried forecasting over many years and claim greater accuracy the the BoM. I have a mini weather station and the benefit of local knowledge (there is a local BoM station). Accuracy has improved but MANY factors are considered and local area forecasts are what is most difficult. Years ago only State-wide forecasts (the size of Victoria) were published.

soth

It could be a 99% chance of rain and still not rain, don't you get that? Probability is not certainty. I think it's pretty amusing when people get upset about the weather forecast being wrong. It's as if you think they just have to look at a few readings and know what's going to happen in the next 24 hours. At best weather forecasting is an educated guess. The only thing they know for sure is what is happening right now and what happened yesterday.

Learn how to read the radar images, that might help a bit in the short term. My wife uses it all the time to work out if there's rain coming so she can ring me to bring in the washing.

thats what i do i lok at teh radar etc of a morning.

they dont know whats happening now. we can have a clear blue sky all day and tehy will still say rain clearign in the afternoon. when tehre was no rain to begin with.

Originally Posted by weisyboy

the only job in the world where you can stuff up every day and still get a bonus at teh end of the year.

surly im not teh only one.

weisyboy I'm with you 100% and please tell me the reason or benefit of telling us what the weather was in the day just past? If you where there you would know and if you weren't there's nothing you can do about it anyway.

Make it like other jobs where you get paid on performance and take responsibility for getting it wrong. Here's a thought divert all the money spent on expensive computers and equipment into something worth while and encourage people to look out of their windows in the morning.

By the way it's raining on the Coast (You can have that one for free)


Cheers

Steve

My concreter mate uses the radar too. His job relies very heavily on knowing if it will rain or not. He uses the radar and his own weather sense and he's usually pretty good - if he thinks it wont rain it doesn't, sometimes it doesn't rain when he thinks it will but he errs on the side of caution.

I think you are right, they don't know. It's just too big a job to examine all of the factors and be able to predict local weather - it's not possible. I can be standing in my front yard with rain falling on my head and see blue sky all around. It happens here a lot. I'm about half a click from town and it can be pissing down there and sunny here. How can they possibly predict that? The best they can say is possible showers.

I think the point is you shouldn't rely on them because there's not really much they can do. Even if you threw bucket loads of money at them. It's still only ever going to be a guess.

please tell me the reason or benefit of telling us what the weather was in the day just past?

Probably the same reason my mum and dad have got a rain gauge. Plus they can look at the weather on TV at night and say "bugger me, it was hot in Dubbo today, wasn't it?"

Why do they tell us what happened today on the news? I suppose you think they should be telling us what will happen tomorrow?

Why do they tell us what happened today on the news? I suppose you think they should be telling us what will happen tomorrow?

it would make things easyer.

Originally Posted by weisyboy

why dont tehy do like they do in america and say the is a 50% chance of rain or a 10 % changce of rain.

That I don't know. They do in ACT, but nowhere else in Australia AFIK. It makes sense, but it's pretty difficult to put a percentage on a forecast. For instance, it might probably rain, but that probablility may be somewhere between 51% and 99%.

As SilentC says, the statistics help you to make a decision, but they don't guarantee anything.

A bit like people talking about a 1 in 100 year storm. People assume that means there won't be another storm like it for 100 years. What it means is that the average recurrence interval for a storm of that duration and intensity over that area at that place is 100 years. You may have another next year or not for 300 years.

Originally Posted by toolbagsPLUS

... and please tell me the reason or benefit of telling us what the weather was in the day just past? If you where there you would know and if you weren't there's nothing you can do about it anyway.

So you have some data (as opposed to guesswork) to base your own forecast on.