Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Originally Posted by BobL

Because until 3500 people die deaths from COVID19 won't exceed the numbers of deaths per year from the flu.

Problem is when something can grow exponentially things can happen real fast.

In the case of the region of Italy (about the same population as Australia) where most of deaths have occurred., the numbers of dead have gone from new zero to 1800 in about 3 weeks.

The same for the main infection zone in china which has about double the pop of Australia. Here the deaths went from near zero to 3000 in about 4 weeks. They did implemented severe controls and now have near zero deaths per day for COVID19 - much less than the annual flu.

The hygiene measures and controls for COVID also put the dampers on the regular flu as well.

Ok so its just like the flu due to arbitrary comparison of figures....?

Right...

Originally Posted by Lappa

I’m a teacher and work in workshop with two other teachers and 36 students. We have small quiet rooms for the students for theory work. Most of our work is of a practical nature with students having to share tools, test equipment as we don’t have the luxury of 1 item per student.

This is the advice we got today

“INFORMATION FOR TEACHING STAFF​Some of our students might be feeling anxious about coming to classes, so we need to make sure that they have all the facts they need. It will be important to regularly remind our students of the importance of good hygiene and maintaining social distance to reduce the transmission of COVID 19.
Here are a few simple things that you can implement in each of your classes:
1.Ensure all students have washed their hands, if possible immediately before joining the class.
2.Ask students to maintain a social distance of at least 1.2 metres. If possible, organise your classroom seating to accommodate this.
3.Where there are practical activities, avoid sharing of equipment that is handled by more than one person, if that is possible.”

Impossible to enforce or achieve. I love the “if possible”. In other words, just get on with your job. We actually have students phoning/emailing in saying they won’t be attending because of the virus and this is supported fully by their employers.

You are expendable.

What do they do when the teachers and admins themselves are forced into lockdown.

I dont follow the logic of "you cant work, but kids can stay at school".

This is going to bring the WuFlu home to mum, dad, grandma faster than a million Typhoid Marys'

The NSW Dept. of School Education already has online courses available for students who have passed the selective high school entry exams but live in remote areas. They are available online via Aurora College. I know that the courses would have to be tailored a bit, but surely they set up quickly for general students, with supervision by their regular teachers. It seems like a software & hardware solution that wouldn't be too hard to implement.
Of course, NSW TAFE OTEN (Open Training and Education Network) was set up to run hundreds of different online courses, including high school courses, but successive state & commonwealth governments destroyed TAFE.

Originally Posted by AlexS

.
Of course, NSW TAFE OTEN (Open Training and Education Network) was set up to run hundreds of different online courses, including high school courses, but successive state & commonwealth governments destroyed TAFE.

Amen to that.

Originally Posted by ian

Hi Graeme
If you look carefully at what Canada's Deputy Prime Minister (Chrystia Freeland) said, ......

Europe might be tightly integrated, but trade in food is mostly a cross border operation that, as far as I know, the current country wide lock downs in Europe allow to continue.
......
So I would dispute your "profits before people" assertion.

Enjoying this exchange, Ian.

I rarely listen to what a politician says. Always look at what they do, or don't do.

Not sure of details. My understanding is the goods are flowing reasonably within EU but people are fairly restricted. Bob's Italian cousins might be able to confirm.

Not current on American theology, Ian, but is your last statement blasphemy or sacriledge?

Originally Posted by 44Ronin

Why are people still comparing it to the flu?

Really.....

Talk to a virologist or, as I have done, to a specialist in public health. There are very close similarities between the viruses and their impacts.

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Talk to a virologist or, as I have done, to a specialist in public health. There are very close similarities between the viruses and their impacts.

Yes

Corona Viruses are the flu. Covi19 is this particular outbreak.

There are however certain aspects that set this flu, Covid 19, apart from many of the foregoing. It is a little on the academic side of things to compare this latest flu with the predecessors as it is still in the relatively early stages before escalation. However history is a good teacher from which we can learn, although there are clearly a number of people not paying attention. To my mind, on a world wide basis, we should be referring to the potential to escalate. For the moment only a handful of countries are in the catastrophe zone.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Yes

Corona Viruses are the flu.

Not it is not, its not a strain of influenza.

My understanding is that Corona virus is a generic name for a wide range of bugs. The usual seasonal flu(S) are and COVID19 are examples. They will both mutate and change around over time and it takes som smarts to keep track and develop vaccines for each which is why you need anew flu shot every year. COVID in one form or other could be with us for many years.

Interesting read

Coronavirus crisis sees a volunteer army of thousands offer help to healthcare workers and the elderly - ABC News

I'm now writing the #312 post in this thread ...

This paper from the Imperial College (in London?) https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf suggests that, in the UK and US context, school closures, if implemented, would need to be maintained till a effective vaccine becomes available in 12 to 18 months time. In the Australian context that would mean schools remaining closed for the rest of 2020 and probably the first half of 2021. So delaying year 12 completion (and hence potential university admission) to the end of the 2022 academic year. I'm not sure that the educational institutions (universities) could sustain a 3 year break in their pipeline of new student admissions.


To quote from the paper's conclusion -- "... school closure is predicted to be insufficient to mitigate (never mind suppress) an epidemic in isolation; this contrasts with the situation in seasonal influenza epidemics,where children are the key drivers of transmission due to adults having higher immunity levels." [My emphasis.]


If you get beyond the first couple of pages, the paper contains a series of charts that predict
1. in the unlikely scenario of no effective control measures 2.2 million people on the US will die, in the UK the number of deaths is predicted to be 510,000.
2. in the case where school and university closures are implemented, the virus will likely result in a second peak of mortality in November/December 2020.

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Enjoying this exchange, Ian.

I rarely listen to what a politician says. Always look at what they do, or don't do.

Not sure of details. My understanding is the goods are flowing reasonably within EU but people are fairly restricted. Bob's Italian cousins might be able to confirm.

Not current on American theology, Ian, but is your last statement blasphemy or sacriledge?

I intended it to be more a reflection of reality.

of course people should come before profit,

but when the logistics supply chain for essentials relies entirely on the person driving the delivery truck -- in the case of my local Safeway store, dry goods picking and palletting is largely automated at the distribution warehouse -- it's the truck driver who is perhaps more essential to the community surviving this epidemic than individual health care workers.
Just one truck driver can deliver 4,200 cubic feet, say 120 cu.m, (US/Canadian trailers are up to 53' long), that's a whole lot of "stuff" going to a single store.

"but when the logistics supply chain for essentials relies entirely on the person driving the delivery truck"

Where's Elon Musk when you need him? Surely a few hundred of those autonomous trucks he's been spruiking should make a big dent in the problem?

Originally Posted by ian

I'm now writing the #312 post in this thread ...

This paper from the Imperial College (in London?) https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf suggests that, in the UK and US context, school closures, if implemented, would need to be maintained till a effective vaccine becomes available in 12 to 18 months time. In the Australian context that would mean schools remaining closed for the rest of 2020 and probably the first half of 2021. So delaying year 12 completion (and hence potential university admission) to the end of the 2022 academic year. I'm not sure that the educational institutions (universities) could sustain a 3 year break in their pipeline of new student admissions.

It wouldn't be a complete break as my understanding is, on average, the number of new students that come direct from school only represent about half of the intake (it differs markedly for each course). The other half would be overseas students, and deferring and mature age entries. A few years back WA universities has to cope with a shift of 6 months of the entry into primary schools which fed through 12 years later to an intake with only half the usual "direct out of school" first year uni intake and although it was not easy they managed. The Unis of course had to carry that through the 3-6 years of courses but with numerous course transfers and more deferred/returning students etc by the final year of course there was not much of a difference in year numbers in most courses.

I've been following the pros and cons about closing down schools. I don't buy the herd immunity concept but there is some research that suggests that unlike the flu kids are not cross infecting each other as rapidly as first thought. What is more likely is infected kids infecting adults so eventually schools will have to close when too many teachers get infected or leave. One of my sisters is a teacher but having just recovered from cancer she's immune compromised so has taken sick leave and is self isolating. If/when the sick leave runs out she is resigning. While enough teachers are still standing it appears the authorities will keep the schools open.

Teachers are therefore being treated as sacrificial to keep the kids, who's parents are in vital service employment (trucks, nurses, grocers, doctors, food producers), at school. I don't like it but when I though about this it's not too far removed from some decisions made even when there is no pandemic eg ramping of ambos at hospital emergency facilities. Perhaps teachers could think of the risks being taken by medical staff on the front line of this problem?