Thread: Future of the Australian Electricity Market

Originally Posted by Mr Brush

Remember that the "Pyramid of Responsibility" applies. The fewer decisions made, the further up the hierarchy you get. The guy at the top of most organisations only got there by being very careful not to make ANY decisions at all.........

Or in the case of Billy McMahon, because John Gorton voted against himself in a tied vote of no confidence.

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Or in the case of Billy McMahon, because John Gorton voted against himself in a tied vote of no confidence.

True. The record shows that John Gorton had no confidence in John Gorton, and voted accordingly.

A unique situation of political honesty. Wish more were as insightful.

Seems more and more likely that eraring coal fired station in NSW wont be closing in 2025 after all. Its almost like they where planning this from the start to get a bunch of government funding

I hadn't heard anything about this event at Yallourn in July (presumably those of you in the business might have heard about it?):
Yallourn Power Station safety concerns are bad news as Australia enters long, hot summer - ABC News


What situations like this highlight is how badly Australia has dropped the ball in the conversion away from fossil fuel power generation. We have all these power stations closing down in recent years, but because of government intransigence and head-in-the-sand attitudes we are not ready to seamlessly transition to renewables...as we so easily could have been, had we started proper preparation even as few as 10-12 years ago. It would have been better to start in the mid-90s of course, but now we seem to be in somewhat of a panic.

With what promises to be another hell summer coming it will be interesting to see how the grid copes with the air-conditioning demand during daylight hours. On the one hand we have far more solar panels in place in the last few years, but on the other we have lost Liddell 6 months ago (and another?) since the 2019-20 summer, and Yallourn could pack it in any old time, apparently, particularly if it is put under stress. (it's surprisingly difficult to find a list of "what power stations have closed down already")

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

What situations like this highlight is how badly Australia has dropped the ball in the conversion away from fossil fuel power generation.

I'm no longer convinced that Australia has dropped the ball any more than anyone else. I also believe there's an awful lot of creative accounting involved in the entire climate change and conversion to renewable energy "propaganda". For example, prior to the Ukraine situation I would have told you that Germany and most European countries were well on their way to converting to renewables, but that really doesn't align with the total panic caused by Russian threats to stop selling them natural gas! If they are so "renewable", then why does a shortage of natural gas create such a drama? Some countries may have indeed progressed, by I suspect the majority have just employed some statisticians!

The creative accounting doesn't stop there, of course. Everything that is "carbon neutral" is in fact based entirely on calculating some hypothetical relationship between the present and some imaginary future. For example, in the last month and a half, the monitoring system for my PV system tells me I have saved (i.e. avoided the release of) 2 tonnes of CO2. This is calculated as the equivalent of planting 42 trees. That statement, of course, relies on those 42 trees growing to full size, with no further intervention, watering, management etc., and then (presumably) either staying in the ground or being used in perpetuity as timber. So in reality, all those "carbon neutral" claims just means they planted some trees - it has almost zero impact on the current situation.

Where Australia does seem to have failed is the distribution grid, and energy storage. If we could easily shunt power from one place to another (a prerequisite for renewables) the actual conversion could be quite rapid - I have watched large wind and solar farms being built in very short order. Unfortunately, it seems that whilst the price we pay for the grid has jumped massively over the last 20 years or so, that money hasn't been used to improve anything. Renewables rely on "nature", and nature isn't constant, so a robust distribution system is required in order that power from one place can be used in the other side of the country when it's windy in one area but cloudy in another. Equally, on a smaller scale, power from rooftop systems can be used across the community - at present I have a 25kW PV installation that much of the time feeds 0.5kW to my house, exports at my 5kW limit, and has nearly 20kW of headroom that is simply throttled because the grid can't deal with it. Any excess energy, whether from rooftop systems or "commercial" generators, could be stored for later use, but only if the grid could transfer it.

I suspect that one of the biggest issues here is that the system, as has been discussed previously in this thread, needs to make a profit because it has been privatised. Sadly I don't think it would be any better if it were still publicly owned, because the government(s) don't have great track records themselves!

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

With what promises to be another hell summer coming it will be interesting to see how the grid copes with the air-conditioning demand during daylight hours

Given that the price of power falls to negative due to over production of PV during the day, I'd assume there is nothing to worry about....... ROFL.....

The European gas problem is due to external politics (i.e. Russia). Our shortcomings are due to internal politics, when we should actually be leading the way, given the resources we have available. IIRC, we do have the highest per-capita take-up of solar panels but what you have highlighted in your 3rd para is the guts of the issue:

Originally Posted by Warb

Where Australia does seem to have failed is the distribution grid, and energy storage.

Decent energy storage is reliant on still-emerging technologies, so maybe we can't blame Govts for that, but our grid is like John Howard...sooo 1950s. It would have been obvious to any level of management 20 years ago that we needed to get cracking on preparing the grid for modern times.

The coming summer will stress test our system. Will it pass, or will we see multiple failures?

Originally Posted by Warb

I'm no longer convinced that Australia has dropped the ball any more than anyone else. I also believe there's an awful lot of creative accounting involved in the entire climate change and conversion to renewable energy "propaganda". For example, prior to the Ukraine situation I would have told you that Germany and most European countries were well on their way to converting to renewables, but that really doesn't align with the total panic caused by Russian threats to stop selling them natural gas! If they are so "renewable", then why does a shortage of natural gas create such a drama? Some countries may have indeed progressed, by I suspect the majority have just employed some statisticians!


Where Australia does seem to have failed is the distribution grid, and energy storage. If we could easily shunt power from one place to another (a prerequisite for renewables) the actual conversion could be quite rapid - I have watched large wind and solar farms being built in very short order. Unfortunately, it seems that whilst the price we pay for the grid has jumped massively over the last 20 years or so, that money hasn't been used to improve anything. Renewables rely on "nature", and nature isn't constant, so a robust distribution system is required in order that power from one place can be used in the other side of the country when it's windy in one area but cloudy in another. Equally, on a smaller scale, power from rooftop systems can be used across the community - at present I have a 25kW PV installation that much of the time feeds 0.5kW to my house, exports at my 5kW limit, and has nearly 20kW of headroom that is simply throttled because the grid can't deal with it. Any excess energy, whether from rooftop systems or "commercial" generators, could be stored for later use, but only if the grid could transfer it.

I suspect that one of the biggest issues here is that the system, as has been discussed previously in this thread, needs to make a profit because it has been privatised. Sadly I don't think it would be any better if it were still publicly owned, because the government(s) don't have great track records themselves!



Given that the price of power falls to negative due to over production of PV during the day, I'd assume there is nothing to worry about....... ROFL.....

Warb

Still the same issue of night and day in Europe. Renewables don't deliver at night or when the wind is in the doldrums. They are not 100% renewable even during the day (neither is Australia. Still a long way to go). Negative prices just point to an oversupply on the spot market. Contracts are still in place for the majority of power delivered.
As well as equipment needing replacement or upgrades, there is the issue of distribution, which is down to cable size in many instances. The greater the distance, the larger the cable required, so power from SA is not going to reach Cairns in QLD very satisfactorily.

Privatisation is a major worry for the distribution. It is hard to know even who owns what compared to the previous arrangements. At least then you knew who to blame: Not that it would have done much good.

Your issue with 20Kw that can't be delivered is more to do with all the other people in your vicinity. It is the total amount of power. I know you have looked at storage and that would be your best bet so that you could feed into the grid at night. Down the track I would guess (but certainly don't know) that a premium will be paid for power during the dark and windless hours.

The irony of all this was that back in the fifties (1950 for NSW) the state governments took over the electricity systems to provide continuity of power. That is what they should again, but I won't be betting any body parts on that happening.

There is nothing to worry about with power through the day. Correct. It is the other sixteen hours, on average, that should concern you.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

I hadn't heard anything about this event at Yallourn in July (presumably those of you in the business might have heard about it?):
Yallourn Power Station safety concerns are bad news as Australia enters long, hot summer - ABC News


What situations like this highlight is how badly Australia has dropped the ball in the conversion away from fossil fuel power generation. We have all these power stations closing down in recent years, but because of government intransigence and head-in-the-sand attitudes we are not ready to seamlessly transition to renewables...as we so easily could have been, had we started proper preparation even as few as 10-12 years ago. It would have been better to start in the mid-90s of course, but now we seem to be in somewhat of a panic.

With what promises to be another hell summer coming it will be interesting to see how the grid copes with the air-conditioning demand during daylight hours. On the one hand we have far more solar panels in place in the last few years, but on the other we have lost Liddell 6 months ago (and another?) since the 2019-20 summer, and Yallourn could pack it in any old time, apparently, particularly if it is put under stress. (it's surprisingly difficult to find a list of "what power stations have closed down already")

FF

I had not seen anything about that. However, that hangar is a device that supports the large steam/water pipes. As things heat up, they expand so everything has to be able to move freely both longitudinally and vertically. I would expect that following that incident an inspection was made of every hanger in the plant for signs of structural failure. Not that big an issue unless you were under it when it fell. It is a sign that some checks that should be performed are being missed. The typical life of a thermal power station is fifty years and Yallourn is 47 years old. Not much incentive to plough wheelbarrow loads of cash into an ageing plant. I think WPHS would have been on to them.

Just out of the interest, the boilers in all these power stations are suspended on ginormous beams above the boiler. This is so that as the boiler heats up it expands ("grows") downwards. The beams at Bayswater were huge. Imagine a UB with a web 1.8m to 2m deep and flanges more than 50mm thick. I would expect the Yallourn boilers to be at least as big if not bigger, Although the units are smaller, the brown coal boilers are huge in comparison to black coal boilers.

Just on the "ball" aspect I saw that they are going to replace 1480MWs (24 hrs per day) with a 350MW battery (one or two hours?). What are these people thinking?

Regards
Paul

Power stations being phased out in the next ten years are (and this could change a bit):
2025 NSW Eraring (but will probably go full term to 2030 or so)
2028 VIC Yallourn
2028 QLD Callide B
2029 NSW Vales Pt B
2033 NSW Bayswater

And in the west:
2024 WA Muja 6
2027 WA Collie
2029 WA Muja 7

According to Wiki, the east has a total of 21,050 MW at max production, and by 2033 when those 5 above have closed we will have lost 9020 MW, or 43% of production.
If Eraring does close in 2025, and Yallourn hobbles through to 2028, we will have lost 5060 MW or 24% by 2028.


Hard to see how this is not absolutely spot on:

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Down the track I would guess (but certainly don't know) that a premium will be paid for power during the dark and windless hours.
There is nothing to worry about with power through the day. Correct. It is the other sixteen hours, on average, that should concern you.

That then makes me wonder if selling power to the grid, at what should become decent prices for FITs in dark hours, will make batteries far more viable, even at their current costs.

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Still the same issue of night and day in Europe. Renewables don't deliver at night or when the wind is in the doldrums. They are not 100% renewable even during the day (neither is Australia. Still a long way to go). Negative prices just point to an oversupply on the spot market. Contracts are still in place for the majority of power delivered.
As well as equipment needing replacement or upgrades, there is the issue of distribution, which is down to cable size in many instances. The greater the distance, the larger the cable required, so power from SA is not going to reach Cairns in QLD very satisfactorily.

All true, and a major issue for renewables. The grid needs to be oversized to allow for renewables, and that hasn't been done or even started (AFAIK). The distance issue is very real, but to some extent we just need to suck it up - the loses are part of the foundation of the dream! On the other hand, perhaps smaller scale local storage systems could provide a stepping stone solution, allowing shorter distance transport to top up reserves? Australia grows a lot of wheat, but it's not all stored in one place - large storage facilities at export ports are supplied by a network of medium sized storage facilities in turn fed by local facilities, right down individual farm silos. These are all linked by rail and truck networks. Interestingly this system also comprises a large number of different businesses, but they make it work.

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Your issue with 20Kw that can't be delivered is more to do with all the other people in your vicinity. It is the total amount of power. I know you have looked at storage and that would be your best bet so that you could feed into the grid at night. Down the track I would guess (but certainly don't know) that a premium will be paid for power during the dark and windless hours.

It's not really to do with the people in my vicinity, it's because the grid can't deal with it. My previous property was very similar, as were the people in the vicinity, yet I could export without limit. The difference was that I had a large 3phase transformer connected to a "big cable" (and maybe higher voltage, just an assumption) section of the grid (the old irrigation pump had a 60kW motor!). My new property has a baby single phase transformer connected to a baby single phase (2 wire) arm of the grid. And the problems are going to get worse. We are being told to replace our fossil fuelled devices with electric ones. My induction cooktop can draw 11kW, and if I bought a Tesla that would be another 11kW. That's 22kW and my transformer is an old 100amp unit. Now imagine everybody on my grid arm doing the same thing. Yes, it's the people in my vicinity, but we're all trying to do the right thing (or at least what we're being told is the right thing!) and the grid simply can't cope!

I did actually get a pair of 10kWH batteries, and they're working very well. My first full month with the new system resulted in a bill with a $0.59 credit, even with the 5kW feed limit. At present the batteries last the entire night, even if I forget to run the "off-peak" water heater during the day, but cooking at night (all electric) plus water heating can run them close to flat (actually they keep a 10% reserve for grid failure events). I'm now looking at a heat pump water heater to reduce my water heating usage, and daylight saving should hopefully mean dinner is cooked with at least some direct solar usage!

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

The European gas problem is due to external politics (i.e. Russia). ...

Yes, but there is also some basic economic factors at play.

As Europe increased it supply of renewables it also increased instability in the network - the periods when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow - often largely unpredictable. It needed a source to fill in those gaps - batteries are not yet cost effective, pumped hydro has a 10+ year lead time, etc - and so they increased reliance on gas rather than coal fired power stations.

• Gas fired power stations can respond to changes in demand fairly quickly, but
• Coal fired power stations require Paul (or his equivalent) to go and tell someone to start shovelling coal and then we have to wait for the boilers to heat up.

But when you look at sourcing of gas, two big players emerge - OPEC and Russia. Frankly, I would never trust either. Europe did, but what was their alternative?

Originally Posted by Warb

I'm now looking at a heat pump water heater to reduce my water heating usage, and daylight saving should hopefully mean dinner is cooked with at least some direct solar usage!

Then you should research the NSW Govt ESS scheme for replacing old HWS with Heat Pumps for free - have to pay some installation costs, and not sure how that will work in your area. Here in Katoomba my total outlay for a 215 litre HP installed will be around $160.

Upgrade your hot water system | NSW Climate and Energy Action

Be warned that the have not organised this site at all well. You might expect that you could look for who does them in your area? Nope, got look at each website and get a minor clue, and then make numerous phone calls. Disgustingly poor organisation, done by a chimp.

Older aircon units can also be upgraded. Bon chance!

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

• Coal fired power stations require Paul (or his equivalent) to go and tell someone to start shovelling coal and then we have to wait for the boilers to heat up.

But when you look at sourcing of gas, two big players emerge - OPEC and Russia. Frankly, I would never trust either. Europe did, but what was their alternative?

Graeme

Actually we have some pretty impressive "coal shovelers", although they can turn up their toes during prolonged wet weather events. However, the response time of coal fired units is dictated by the boiler capability. All units have ramp rates, although they will be very variable from station to station. Typically, they will be between 3MW/min and 5MW/min in the raise direction and likely a little faster in the lower direction. Unfortunately, coal fired units are better suited to more consistent loading hence part of the reason why they have traditionally been regarded as "base load" power plants, but not solely, as base load relies heavily on economics first and foremost, particularly in today's competitive market. Conversely, Gas and Hydro have very fast response times in times of crisis.

It may be a very long time before anybody can count on Russia. As for OPEC, I am guessing that their aim is to make a few shekels before they become a total pariah so no economic relief there.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

... but our grid is like John Howard...sooo 1950s. It would have been obvious to any level of management 20 years ago that we needed to get cracking on preparing the grid for modern times.

Well, yes the powers that be DID see that. That's why it was all privatised. Not their problem any more.