Thread: Yes I'm "stoking the fire"

Originally Posted by woodbe

Rod, did you even look at the graphic?

De Nile ain't just a river in Egypt.

woodbe.

Firstly, the graphic is published becuase its interesting in that post hoc it shows something that we already know about. Its important to realise this.

Secondly, why that particular start date and end date, and why that partciluar choice for the part of the year?

If i produced a graph starting at 2003 for instance, centred it on permanent winter ice pack, and included the latest up to date data, it would clearly show a pack trend of increasing coverage - ipso facto the arctic is getting cooler, and by extension the globe is getting cooler!!!

see how easy it is. If you dont understand how, where, why and the aim of the author, any graphic is simply a means to communicate the writers opinion. "managing" statistics is an easy art - more surprising is how many people are swayed by it without critical thought.

For an excellant insight into stats and how they can misinform, read Bjorn Lombords "the skeptical environmentalist" - especially has a great section on cancer rates to demonstrate - can be read for free on google books.

Originally Posted by pharmaboy2

Firstly, the graphic is published becuase its interesting in that post hoc it shows something that we already know about. Its important to realise this.

It also demonstrates something that our correspondent, Rod has implicitly denied has been happening.

Thank you for confirming that.

You can play with stats all you like, and manage them to deny or support what you like. What cannot be denied is that we have been going through a period of reducing arctic summer ice coverage, to the point that the NW passage has been open.

I don't care for the to and fro argument, but I fail to see how a cooling planet you refer to results in less summer ice, unless you have found a way that ice melts by cooling it?

woodbe.

Global cooling not polar cooling??

I remember as a kid in the 60's that the Jehovah Witnesses thought that Armageddon was coming to decimate the entire planet, not being of the JW faith or nothing my parents had some friends/acquaintances who were.

These JW people sold up and went and said goodbye to all their relos overseas then came back to await the final end..............I wonder where they are now? Prolly sitting in the foetal position waiting, waiting......

Originally Posted by woodbe

It also demonstrates something that our correspondent, Rod has implicitly denied has been happening.

Thank you for confirming that.

You can play with stats all you like, and manage them to deny or support what you like. What cannot be denied is that we have been going through a period of reducing arctic summer ice coverage, to the point that the NW passage has been open.

I don't care for the to and fro argument, but I fail to see how a cooling planet you refer to results in less summer ice, unless you have found a way that ice melts by cooling it?

woodbe.

What you fail to realize is that this is a natural event dependent of prevailing winds not warm air.

Of course I recognize the fact that the ice sheet reduced in size. Just I dont believe for a second your reasoning for it.

Originally Posted by woodbe

I don't care for the to and fro argument, but I fail to see how a cooling planet you refer to results in less summer ice, unless you have found a way that ice melts by cooling it?

woodbe.

the example I gave you was purely that - an example. It illustrates that depending on the time period chosen and the method - the result changes.

Where Rod is correct, is on the upto the minute data. the northern hemisphere winter has been extreme, and the ice addition has also been extreme - therefore its highly likely that this coming NH summer, that the trend of the last 10 years will reverse as the top of the sine wave.

Anecdotal examples to demonstrate a belief are not science - they are journalism - the polar bear example for instance is journalism, as is glacial retreat, and in this case arctic ice retreat - the major factor in each isnt increased average air temperature.

Originally Posted by rod@plasterbrok

Ice caps Melting?

Nope stike that one out this year too.

That is what I responded to.

Pharmaboy, the only way of measuring summer ice is to measure it in the summer. If you tried it in the winter, it wouldn't be a measure of summer ice now, would it?

There has been a one year change to a trend that has been going for some years, and you two are trumpeting it as a revolution. Isn't that the sort of thing you accuse the other side of?

Extremes on both sides of the GW debate are not helpful. Characterising anything you don't agree with as 'journalism' is not helpful. The debate on GW is so fractured that anyone can find lots of supporting references for their own point of view.

My view is that western society has become so disconnected from the planet that we wouldn't know or truly care about a problem if we fell over it. We drive our cars, watch TV, run our airconditioners, etc etc. We isolate ourselves in a blinkered cocoon and are quite happy to carry on that way with little or no consideration of the effects of that existence on the planet and the future generations that will occupy it. If AGW is happening or happens in the future, the chances of being able to agree about it or decide to do anything about it before it is too late are very slim.

Personally I take one of the kids out as often as I can to see and walk gently on the land, as I think an appreciation of nature is something earned by being in it. It's really quite enlightening to see the joy in their faces and the skip in their walk return after only an hour or so away from the computer games and associated dross. 12km today: Google Earth Track

woodbe.

You bring a lot of sense to this debate Pharmaboy.

Woodboy I grew up on a farm and spent a lot of time in the bush etc over the years and appreciate nature as much as anyone. But this does not change my attitude to AGW. I call a spade a spade how I see it. More and more people a comming to understand tha AGW is at the very best only a remote possibility and at the worst blatant fraud.

I believe the truth is somewhere in the middle. Scientists and Pollies have backed themselves into a corner on AGW and they desperatly need an escape where they can save face.

Read what this guy has to say if you dare! http://www.davidrhenderson.com/artic...alwarning.html

Originally Posted by rod@plasterbrok

Of course I recognize the fact that the ice sheet reduced in size. Just I dont believe for a second your reasoning for it.

Interesting admission. Can you please enlighten me what my reasoning is?

I think you are assuming some stuff here. Please go back and read what I said.

woodbe.

This is not an admission it is simply a fact.

You may not say it directly woodbe, but the inference in your posts are that it is due to global warming therby melting because the temperature has increaced. And further to that that Global Warming is caused by humans.

If this is not the case then enlighten me!

You may not say it directly woodbe

Thanks for that Rod.

Rod, I've given up debating GW. Like I say, the debate is poisoned and polluted from both sides.

I was not offering any reasoning, just that the facts certainly don't seem to support what you were saying while you were dumping on Len. After all, he has an opinion too, and it's just as valid as yours or mine.

So the arctic ice has been melting, and you agree that is is a fact. I think you might mention that to Len next time you're talking to him.

woodbe.

Woodbe the loss of Artic ice had nothing to do with AGW this has been proven already. To keep brining it up to support a debate on AGW is just wrong. Yet it keeps comming up as one of the "main" indicators in support of AGW.

Real science.com even went as far as saying that when the Artic ice reduced that it was "THE" tipping point that concluded that AGW was real.

Now the ice is back what do they say? Nothing.

There is so much at stake in this debate that it is crucial that the facts be told. How many times have scare campaigns like this turned out to be false? This one will destroy economies if left un challanged.

There is a huge onus on those peddeling the AGW theory to 100% right before committing the world to sensless carbon trading schemes etc. There is an even bigger onus on the scientists that have diss-proved the theory to stick to their guns and not be bullied by there peers who have too much to loose.

My tip is that the USA will be the first to officially "down play" the risk of AGW and do nothing.

Rod, I haven't been debating Arctic Ice and AGW.

Please read what I said.

woodbe.

Oh, and while you are forcing the AGW folk to bear an onus of 100% correctness, in the sake of the fairness you have been espousing, can you please require the same standard for the anti-AGW crowd?

That will absolutely guarantee inaction.

woodbe.