Its the end of the world as we know it. (USPS glory days are gone) [Archive]

Anorak Bob

6th September 2011, 03:37 PM

So we end up shopping elsewhere. My most recent purchases have been on English and French Ebay. I bought some ESX collets and a Clarkson chuck from the UK and had both purchases in just over a week courtesy Royal Mail. I can't see the French being as quick to the draw as the Poms but their delivery times have to be better than the seven week USPS wait I just had. My brother in New Jersey said the USPS had dramatically cut back services. Maybe the end is nigh.

BT

RayG

6th September 2011, 04:12 PM

Hi GQ, BT,

Similar experiences here, I get stuff from UK and EU in a week, from USPS it's 3-4 weeks+, last one from Germany was just over a week... (mini gloat.. I got 6 boxes (total of 60 inserts) of carbide inserts for 14 euro, postage included)

I recently had a lengthy email exchange with a supplier, who refused point blank to use USPS, I really couldn't get a clear answer why not, all I could get was "We use Fedex, and no-one else"... so maybe it's a fond goodbye to flat rate boxes indeed...:~

Maybe they are all going to go "postal"

Regards
Ray

eskimo

6th September 2011, 05:00 PM

(mini gloat.. I got 6 boxes (total of 60 inserts) of carbide inserts for 14 euro, postage included)

probably all used Ray..hahaha

Greg Q

6th September 2011, 06:03 PM

Going over my ebay purchases recently I see that I've bought from the US just over half the time, but half of those times were for European things undervalued there. I am having a hard time getting enthused about much on U.S. ebay any more anyway...all my fun things have come from the UK or Germany. Or the Ukraine. Or Israel.

I think that all of my future purchases I'll just run through shipito.com anyway...a minor savings but at least FedEx still gives same-week service.

It is a shame about USPS...and I wonder which US icon is next. :(

RayG

6th September 2011, 06:03 PM

probably all used Ray..hahaha

Hi Eskimo, you'd be excused for thinking that, based on the price... there were a couple of larger lots that went cheap from the same seller.. but what would I do with 500-600 inserts?

eBay Australia: Buy new & used fashion, electronics & home d (http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/110725130030?ssPageName=STRK:MEWNX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1439.l2649)

Regards
Ray

Jekyll and Hyde

6th September 2011, 08:17 PM

The US gets mail delivered on Saturdays??!!

I really had to laugh at this quote:

As any computer user knows, the Internet revolution has led to people and businesses sending far less conventional mail.

How much mail gets sent just to Australia via USPS because of the internet, and I'm sure a lot of internal mail is created by the internet as well... Would seem to me that whatever loss in the form of letters and so forth, would be in some part compensated by the sheer volume of internet shopping that now occurs...

And I may well get flamed for this comment, but I note that unions are the same in other countries - refusing to allow job cuts, somehow thinking that its a better idea that EVERYONE lose their jobs when the company/entity goes bankrupt.

Greg Q

6th September 2011, 08:40 PM

I was speaking of this with my local postie just today. He said he works extra hours all the time delivering parcels, and they had to get another driver just to service our small post code.

The USPS has other difficulties arising from some crazy levy imposed on it by Congress a few years ago. It makes money but not enough to pay its internal dividend to general revenue.

I used to sometimes envy my American friends years ago, now I just feel sorry for them.

19brendan81

7th September 2011, 01:14 PM

I'll cry if they go under...I use those 20lb boxes all the time.

Big Shed

7th September 2011, 01:55 PM

This makes interesting reading

US Postal Service seeks reprieve from Congress to avert 'default' - CSMonitor.com (http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/0906/US-Postal-Service-seeks-reprieve-from-Congress-to-avert-default)

Amazing that an organisation such as USPS is responsible for the health benefits of its' retired workers.

The article also states that wages account for 80% of the USPS budget, more than double UPS and FedEx.

They're talking about laying off 120,000 workers as well as not replacing another 100,000 they will lose through normal attrition.

Not a healthy business by the sound of it:no:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/0906/Crunch-time-at-US-Postal-Service-Five-questions-about-post-office-closings/Why-is-the-USPS-considering-these-closures

Greg Q

7th September 2011, 02:14 PM

That feature of the US no-health-care system is very common. Since uninsured people go bankrupt for medical problems having health insurance is a must..

Workers historically had medical coverage as part of their employment and need to belong to the same fund in retirement because no other fund would accept them at that age. So...one thing leads to another and workers eventually got lifetime coverage.

This is one of the legacy costs that almost bankrupted the US auto makers in 2008. The right wingnuts over their go rabid about such costs to business, but since they don't have universal health care the workers are caught between a rock and a hard place.

The USPS's problem is that Congress required them to pre-pay all their future health care costs, as well as their pension obligations unlike any other business or government branch. The congress is trying to kill the post office, but there is plenty of blame to go around apparently.

Greg

damian

7th September 2011, 04:37 PM

Amazing that an organisation such as USPS is responsible for the health benefits of its' retired workers.

It's a long held myth that the USA has no social security or free health care, it's just they do it in a very different way to us. It's a pretty insane system and I'm not at all sure I understand it, but the US has lots of "different" laws.

They always have the option of going bankrupt for example in several different ways and they just walk away from the debt, so if they slip into negative equity on a car or house they just wash their hands of it.

Then there is emminent domain, which basically means the government can take your house anytime it wants. Yeah they have to pay, but the yanks seem to have less rights than us to kick up a stink, "castle" style. They also levy rates based on the purchase price you paid, so if you've lived in the same house for 40 years your taxes are trivial....

As said it's quite common to package salary/wages with a whole load of ongoing benifits.

Greg Q

7th September 2011, 04:49 PM

...They always have the option of going bankrupt for example in several different ways and they just walk away from the debt, so if they slip into negative equity on a car or house they just wash their hands of it.

...They also levy rates based on the purchase price you paid, so if you've lived in the same house for 40 years your taxes are trivial....

As said it's quite common to package salary/wages with a whole load of ongoing benifits.

Home loans are generally non-recourse, so you can walk away leaving the bank to hold the bag. In fact, many people are trading up right now: getting a mortgage on a better house then defaulting on their original house. All you lose is a credit rating.

Home taxes are much higher there than here, and it depends on the municipality/state as to how they are calculated. Since everyone is hurting there right now most states/locales are trying to hike taxes.

They do have Social Security, may even have invented it, but that too is bankrupt and the Republicans are actually trying to cut it. The GOP seems to be hell-bent on setting the stage for the next revolution.:(:((

nihilism

7th September 2011, 09:30 PM

And I may well get flamed for this comment, but I note that unions are the same in other countries - refusing to allow job cuts, somehow thinking that its a better idea that EVERYONE lose their jobs when the company/entity goes bankrupt.

I can agree with you on that one. The last company I worked for went into liquidation partly due to the fact they didn't cut any jobs when things started to go downhill. In the end a lot more people lost thier jobs anyway.

Pete F

8th September 2011, 01:54 PM

And I may well get flamed for this comment, but I note that unions are the same in other countries - refusing to allow job cuts, somehow thinking that its a better idea that EVERYONE lose their jobs when the company/entity goes bankrupt.

Don't be too quick to blame the unions, some of the most successful companies in their relevant sectors are highly unionised. To give you an example, Southwest, the airline to which most "low cost" airlines model themselves, is almost 100% unionised. It's highly successful and the relationship between the employees and management is excellent. It is too simplistic to simply blame unions for the woes of an organisation when in fact the problem is almost always far more systemic. For what it's worth, I can assure you I am definitely NOT pro militant union, I dedicated almost a decade of my life studying to sit on the other side of the desk! I'm definitely not having a go at anyone here, but in general I'm getting a little tired of hearing that unions are somehow the work of the devil when the current trend is in fact quite the opposite, with executive remuneration having grown exponentially over the past 10 years despite a contraction in company performance. In general companies have far greater resources to promote their own interests and it's somewhat frustrating to see people getting sucked in by the one-sided spin.

With regards USPS, the US is essentially bankrupt. Around a month ago congress approved the increase of national debt but few hold much hope that will do anything other than delay the inevitable. As a Federal Agency the USPS is also in precisely the same position, with massive cutbacks in an attempt to sustain some form of service. Fortunately it's one of the few US agencies we need to deal with, but the same story can be seen across the whole Federal sector. It's generally regarded by economists that the US population is under-taxed (Federal revenue) however increasing taxation is always politically very difficult. Their "answer" is to reduce Federal services (costs) in an attempt to reign back the economic woes. It's a little like watching a train wreck in slow motion at the moment.

That's a very simplistic attempt at an explanation of both the union situation and the US economic woes. The latter is, unremarkably, very often a topic of discussion in The Economist magazine. For those interested they publish a free Podcast several times a week that's very interesting. Economics isn't always boring ;)

Pete

19brendan81

8th September 2011, 02:50 PM

"It is too simplistic to simply blame unions for the woes of an organisation when in fact the problem is almost always far more systemic"

I agree Pete.

America has for too long been at the mercy of the powerful rich lobbyists who essentially control governments. It was the changes demanded by these lobbyists that created the GFC (gross financial deregulation) and the same people are now hindering the governments efforts to get the country out of the mess they are in.

I agree tax hikes are a tough sell but realistically its what they need. Maybe we could send John Howard and Peter Costello over there as consultants, they somehow managed to sell the great big tax on everything to Australia 10 years ago.

The worst bit is that things in the US are going to get worse before they get better...and what effect that will have on our economy is anyones guess.

Pete F

8th September 2011, 03:18 PM

I'm happy to go on record as saying I believe the US is screwed. I know we have American members here, so just to make it clear from the outset, I'm not having a dig at Americans, simply the system. In my experience few Americans would disagree anyway! The political system simply doesn't work as a "democracy". Instead supposed representatives are bribed by wealthy individuals and organisations in order to obtain the outcomes they need. Of course "bribe" is a dirty word, so they call them "political donations". In addition the system allows the opposition political party to block any legislative changes they don't agree with (which by definition is almost all of them) by a process known as filibustering. This will block acts of Congress, resulting in no legislative changes, the swing voters become disenchanted with the political party in power and at the next election vote for the opposition, the then opposition proceeds with the same process and the cycle repeats again. Filibustering is disallowed under the Australian political system to prevent this cycle of events.

There's no need to guess what will happen to the world economy if the US does indeed default. The adage that if the US (economy) sneezes the world catches a cold is as true now as it ever was. While Asian (read Chinese) economies are rapidly catching up, the US is still the main economic player in this game. Not too many people are happy with what's going on, hence the price of gold!

With regards the GST, it was indeed a good sell. However it was also one of the most important change to the Australian taxation system in recent times. The previous sales tax system that existed was a shambles and a nightmare to administer.

Anyway, I guess this is all a long way from machining ... or even the USPS woes :U

Pete

RayG

8th September 2011, 03:54 PM

Hi All,

I'd like to turn the discussion slightly back towards engineering.. with a dumb question..

Here's the question, how many European, Japanese or American machine tool makers, can you name off the top of your head?

Good... now, how many Chinese machine tool makers can you name?

And yet the majority of machine tools made in the world today are made in China..?

Regards
Ray

Pete F

8th September 2011, 04:27 PM

What is your point Ray? The largest fast food manufacturer in the world is McDonalds. That's little more than a statistic; most people don't all eat McDonalds every day, nor is the product it produces any indicator of quality.

McDonalds produces a commodity. China tends to manufacture commodity type products differentiated only by price. By definition, commodities are almost always the largest selling product by volume. It is not, however, a precursor to profitability. China has a strategic advantage of a low cost base however, an essential requirement to compete on cost. Nevertheless if cost was the only criteria in purchasing, we would all be driving around in Kias and BMW, VW, Mercedes etc would not exist, never mind be as financially successful as they are. The point is people buy in terms of value. For some the best value will always be represented by the cheapest, but that is not the whole market. This is a fundamental point that is lost even on some very experienced business people. More on topic, why do you feel the likes of Metabo, Hilti, Festool, Compac, Stahwille etc etc etc still exist?

Pete

Anorak Bob

8th September 2011, 04:34 PM

RayG

8th September 2011, 04:43 PM

Hi Pete,

What I'm leading into, is the accelerating trend toward "Globalization", that is large multi-national companies, simply go where the costs of doing business are more favourable, national boundaries cease to be relevant.**

You could make a list of brands, that have sent their manufacturing off shore, it would probably include some of those you listed.

The real value in a product, is still the intellectual property, the source of IP is another discussion, but I think I could make the case that a lot of Chinese made product is still designed in the west, or copied from western designs.

I'm trying not to make judgements on whether this is better or worse, it's simply the way things are going.

But,

I do like the high $A dollar, and the reasonably priced tooling (well some of it anyway) that we can get nowadays, where would we be without ebay for quality european and US made tooling, and places like ctctools for economy stuff.

In years to come, we might be looking back on these days as the "golden era" for hobby machinists.

Regards
Ray

** Jetconnect for example

Pete F

8th September 2011, 04:43 PM

That's very true Bob. It is because the Chinese (as a generalisation) sell a commodity product and not a brand. It's interesting to see companies take that same product, attach a brand to it, and then go on to sell it at a significant premium.

Pete

19brendan81

8th September 2011, 04:43 PM

"I'm happy to go on record as saying I believe the US is screwed."

Again I agree Pete. I have long resented the fact that many developing countries around the world aspire to the American model...its a poor example if you ask me.

Also would like to emphasise its not a dig at Americans or their culture...I have relatives in the states and have met many fine Americans over the years. Im just
p!ssed that the imminent world financial implosion is the result of some terrible policy makers and governments from that part of the world.

BobL

8th September 2011, 04:54 PM

We lived in the US for 2 and bit years in the late 80's early 90's. After my young son started developing an 'merican accent and calling SWMBO "mom" and bring home the same dreary patriotic worksheets from primary school, and an escalating series of felonies in our neighborhood we decided to return to Oz. Some of the locals could not understand why "Surely you life must be better in the states. One of our neighbors was a young doctor who once asked me what language we spoke in Australia because, " . . hey, you guys speak english really well".

We have many good American friends but . . . . . . . .

Since then I have been back 4 times for short visits - each time it seems to be a little worse. Sad really - beautiful country too.

Pete F

8th September 2011, 05:23 PM

Bob, I know that to be true as I have been asked the same question!

Ray, if a company is selling a commodity, the only way to differentiate it from its competitors is on price. Indeed this is what leads to the demise of most western companies, they try to cut costs in order to "compete" with a (Chinese) competitor, however in the process eliminate the very differentiation for which people were buying the product! To give an example, Mercedes tried to "go cheap" some years back, reliability dropped and the brand (much of the reason for people buying the product) was almost trashed. Fortunately they caught it in time and the concept of value was recognised.

The Jetconnect example you mentioned is an interesting one, as this is a classic case of leveraging on a brand name while substituting an inferior product. Most people would probably feel mighty peeved if they bought a quality brand name tool only to find it was in fact a cheap Chinese copy that had just been rebadged. However most people are not aware that when they board a Jetconnect flight they are not getting on a Qantas flight, after all, the aircraft says "Qantas" on the side, the crew are dressed like Qantas, and the passenger bought a Qantas ticket. Nevertheless it is in fact a completely different company that simply contracts to Qantas. They are registered in New Zealand and are not subjected to the same operational standards as the genuine Qantas product. An example of that is that the minimum regulatory requirement for pilot re-certification is 2 checks per year. Qantas pilots do double that requirement, 4 checks per year. Indeed when Qantas reduced the number of checks per year to 3, they noticed a reduction in standard so reintroduced 4 checks per year. In short, it's not a commodity, but few would appreciate that.

While globalisation is something with which I can't argue with you, it's not quite as simple as it may at first appear.

Pete

RayG

8th September 2011, 05:49 PM

Hi All,

I can't agree with the simplistic "America is Screwed" sentiment.

I spent many years commuting between Australia and California doing contract work for a California based company, between the early 1980's and early 2000's, I did travel a bit in the US on occasion, and worked for a while in Michigan at one stage.

The US is a patchwork quilt of different cultures and attitudes, it's not possible to generalize. Perhaps one universal is the huge contrast between the have's and have nots, which we don't have in Australia. Even in small communities, there is a vast gulf in prosperity between "one side of the tracks" and the other.

The exporting of US manufacturing jobs to Mexico and China, is paralled by the exporting of European manufacturing jobs to eastern europe, In German hardware stores you don't find cheap chinese goods, you find cheap Ukrainian or Romanian goods.

In the US, it's companies like Wal-Mart and Home Depot that are driving manufacturers off shore..

Companies like Apple manufacture mostly in China, but the profits stay in the US

Not a simple picture.

Regards
Ray

.RC.

8th September 2011, 06:15 PM

More on topic, why do you feel the likes of Metabo, Hilti, Festool, Compac, Stahwille etc etc etc still exist?

Pete

I just ordered a Speed Queen washing machine today..... $1600 for a washing machine... versus $900 for a Simpson, or Fisher and Paykel, etc

There is a reason we went with the Speed Queen...And it is nothing to do with Sydney..

.RC.

8th September 2011, 06:21 PM

An example of that is that the minimum regulatory requirement for pilot re-certification is 2 checks per year. Qantas pilots do double that requirement, 4 checks per year. Indeed when Qantas reduced the number of checks per year to 3, they noticed a reduction in standard so reintroduced 4 checks per year. In short, it's not a commodity, but few would appreciate that.

While globalisation is something with which I can't argue with you, it's not quite as simple as it may at first appear.

Pete

A similar sort of story I heard quite a number of years ago now...

A chap was growing his own crayfish (redclaws) he looked into setting up a small processing plant to process then..... Was a total nightmare to do, everything had to be certified and registered...

So he got all his redclaw product, shipped them over to a close island nation, there all the people grabbed a basket of redclaws and down to the beach they went where they processed them on the sand.... The processed redclaws then got shipped back to Australia where they were sold..

I often wonder why nations do not force imported goods to be made to the same standards local products must be made to...

Pete F

8th September 2011, 07:17 PM

Ray you're perfectly entitled to your opinion and that's fine. I hope you're right. However I can tell you that it is in contrast to the majority of economists today. Already the US came within a few days of defaulting on its debt and at least one rating agency has now downgraded the credit rating of the US. The only reason it didn't default was because its debt ceiling was raised. That in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing; debt is good if it's being used to finance capital works that improve productivity. However the debt is not being used for that purpose, that's the problem. In this case it IS possible to generalise because we're talking sovereign debt and the ability of the country as a whole to repay its loans. One part of the country may be going gangbusters for all it matters, it doesn't matter, the country as a nation is broke! The previous solution was to print money, a dangerous alternative that I won't go in to here, but in any event it didn't work. I still go to the US and was there twice last week as a matter of fact. The mood isn't great from the people I spoke to, but as I said that's immaterial as we're talking about sovereign debt*, not what is happening at the community level.

Pete

*Google "US sovereign debt crisis" for more info and some sober reading!

RayG

8th September 2011, 08:31 PM

Hi Pete,

Let me say it a bit more clearly, I believe in the resilience of the American spirit of inventiveness, creativity and the enormous capacity of the US economy. It's a complex equation, and all the jokes about economists opinions could well be relevant. I don't think quantitative easing is the answer to debt, and Goldman Sachs should be called to account for their role in the European debt crisis, (they were the architect of some of the Greek financial problems).
I like Warren Buffet's views, he seems to have a good handle on what's real and what's important.

What all that economic and financial analysis ultimately comes down to is individual creativity, and enterprise, and the US still leads the world in that area (I'm parochial enough to think we do pretty well in those stakes in Australia as well). While we might despair at the seeming decline of manufacturing in the US, that decline has generally been accompanied by a rise in other industries, Apple, Microsoft, Google, All of Hollywood, and not to forget Aerospace, lots of world leading firms in Military Technology, and many others..

Apologies if this is sounding like a "State of the Union Address" but in the long run it's the individual freedoms that count. ( and drive prosperity)

Regards
Ray

PS Warren Buffet, was asked about S&P's downgrading of US Debt, and asked if it changed his view of US Debt, he said "if anything, it changed his view of S&P"...

Pete F

8th September 2011, 09:23 PM

Ray that's all well and good, but the bottom line is quite simple. The American Government currently can't pay its bills and is having to borrow money to do so. There's nothing complex about that; no beliefs are required, that's a plain fact expressed in its most simple form. Now of course what they intend doing about it and whether that's the correct path is where economic opinions and faiths come in to play. Currently the government is, for all intents and purposes, choosing to do nothing and hoping the problem will go away. Well, not quite true, they're borrowing yet more money and cutting federal costs. Which brings me back to the topic of the thread, this is why the USPS service has been so lousy, cut costs particularly where the constituents can't see the cuts.

I honestly think it's terrific that you have such faith in the US economy, many people certainly don't. However this is not about economic opinion, what I've outlined above is economic fact, nobody in their right mind can dispute the situation as it stands. What happens going forward is where the question and uncertainty lies. Warren Buffet can say what he likes (and personally I'd agree with him regarding the rating agencies), but there seems to be little real effort to turn this ship around. [NOW comes the economic opinion part] Most economic opinion I've read seems to suggest that increasing taxes will be the only way the US can be expected to emerge from this situation. But as you're probably aware, that in itself has significant economic implications; precisely what the domestic economy doesn't need. It's also politically difficult, with the Republicans stating outright that they will never approve tax increases.

At the end of the day Ray I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on the outlook and we're all going to have to wait and see what happens.

Pete