Thread: Consumer Confidence Low?

We have to ring to book a free hard rubbish collection - allowed one per year and two free trailer loads to the tip. The two trailer loads can be converted to an extra collection. They then say what day it will be collected and the rubbish has to be put out the night before. Certainly saves the scavengers and the mess they make.

Originally Posted by Chesand

We have to ring to book a free hard rubbish collection - allowed one per year and two free trailer loads to the tip. The two trailer loads can be converted to an extra collection. They then say what day it will be collected and the rubbish has to be put out the night before. Certainly saves the scavengers and the mess they make.

That's a fantastic system, I wish they would do it here...what council ?

A number of Sydney councils run that system too, I suspect that doing it this way, less rubbish ends up being collected ( cost saving measure) just the same I think it is a better way of doing it.

Originally Posted by damian

That's a fantastic system, I wish they would do it here...what council ?

Hume Council -covers Broadmeadows, Craigieburn, Bulla, Sunbury and in between. In my opinion it is actually too large an area for one Council but that is a subject for another time.
For the free trips to the tip you have to produce your rate notice.

yep we had a market in a small town in Victoria that's closed because of greed from some and lack of interest from the general public in two years general downturn was quite noticeable spending was a thing of the past.

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Confidence is a curious thing. I once heard it described as the false sense of well being you experience immediately before you completely understand the situation.

Indeed. Recessions are largely/mostly about confidence, both from consumer and business. There can be other factors in there too, like the odd GFC or similar financial based crisis.

Remember in 1982 when Malcolm Fraser urged us all to "Spend spend spend, and buy Australian" to reel in the deep recession of the time? Consumer confidence had ebbed away and we had a really bad drought, and I started seeing To-let signs everywhere in the Taren Point industrial area, and I still believe that is the earliest and most obvious warning sign. I saw the same thing in 1990 well before we were in technical recession in 1991.

Poor old Mal thought we were the problem when in fact it was him - the country was ripe for change but he was yesterday's man by then. Hawkey (god love 'im) booted him out, broke the drought, and the country shot forward again.

Another very good benchmark is the Advertising spend. At the time of the 1990-92 recession I was a Commercial Photographer creating brochures (turnkey service) mainly for Industry and Engineering. The signs were writ large 12 months before we technically went into recession. The same thing happened directly after the Olympics in 2000 to the point where I had to abandon the industry after 15 years. I maintain that it was only the Olympics (with the massive and sudden inflow of tourism dollars) that kept us out of a technical recession, at least in NSW. Very fortunately for me that also coincided with the transition from film to digital photography so I still got reasonable coin for my film gear when I sold it.

This ABS graph shows how perilously close we were in 2000. One qtr of zero growth followed by 0.3% contraction. That's a mild recession in my opinion. It also shows the very large contraction in Q1 of 1991. I can't find the same chart for the 25 years before that, despite looking for 30 minutes, so I have sent Business Insider a request for it. It will show a light recession in 1974, a deep deep recession in 1982-3 (4 qtrs of neg growth and two of zero)


I think it is universally agreed that we only dodged a recession (as such) in 2008 because of massive Govt expenditure, but that of course came at its own cost. That prompts the question: Which is worse, to have a recession of indeterminate length (with all the pain and suffering it brings) or to ratchet up Govt debt to avoid recession - but have to pay for it later. That is probably a very nuanced debate with valid points to be made for both.

Most certainly the GFC shot my Mortgage Broking business out of the sky in just a few months in 2008. I started it in Jan 2008, was busy for 5 months and then.....nothing....at all......



Going back to Paul's comment about confidence, I think the media has a very great deal to answer for in creating a loss of confidence, especially in these days of 24/7/365¼ news. It becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

So after reading this thread I can tell you that my confidence is shot!

This chart is as close as I can get for the moment, but the figures for 2000 are wrong, so I dunno about the rest.

You don't realize how lucky you are. We put our unwanted out to the curb with a sign "Free". The hope is that some one will snag the junk in a week. There is a guy that is always looking for metals. If I see him and I have something I'll flag him down. Then he'll take what I point at.

I won't enter into this discussion as I think my opinions are well known..... BUT....


--> Do you REALLY think that the GFC was "solved"? Really?

--> Debt. Debt and more debt. Find out how much more people and governments now owe compared to the GFC. What is the debt of our government now, compared to 10 years ago?

--> All the Easy Money of QE... QE2... QE3... where has it gone? Who "has it"? (do try to find out, you might get a wee bit angry). Why if it were successful, has it been repeatedly reused... hmmm?

--> Read up on MMT.

It all comes down to debt. Maybe not yourself personally, but your neighbours (hoooooley doooley!)

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Time to take the Red Pill Neo....
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Time to breathe Evan.... breathe in, breathe out... whew....

I'm at the markets on Sunday, I'll let you know the feedback since I havn't been there for a couple of months.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

I won't enter into this discussion as I think my opinions are well known..... BUT....


--> Do you REALLY think that the GFC was "solved"? Really?

--> Debt. Debt and more debt. Find out how much more people and governments now owe compared to the GFC. What is the debt of our government now, compared to 10 years ago?

--> All the Easy Money of QE... QE2... QE3... where has it gone? Who "has it"? (do try to find out, you might get a wee bit angry). Why if it were successful, has it been repeatedly reused... hmmm?

--> Read up on MMT.

It all comes down to debt. Maybe not yourself personally, but your neighbours (hoooooley doooley!)

..
..
Time to take the Red Pill Neo....
..
..
..

Time to breathe Evan.... breathe in, breathe out... whew....

Yeah, it's very concerning. I'd say a lot of that easy money has gone to - property, stocks and spending on stuff people don't really need - of course a lot would have flowed up to the wealthiest few in the process. That's why we have a property bubble, arguably a stock market bubble (definitely one in the USA), and one of the highest private debt to income/GDP ratio's in the world (4th highest debt to income I believe).

The really annoying thing is that not participating in the irresponsible prospecting/speculation using easy-money-debt means that you miss out on the upside (wealth transfer) and may actually be worse off because; a) there won't be a collapse in these bubbles (in nominal terms) if the government continues/resumes QE and monetises the debt / debases the currency or b) there is a collapse but the government bails out the defaulters and taxes you to pay for it and/or doesn't have any money to provide the services/infrastructure that you would have otherwise benefited from - so even if you aren't part of the problem, you pay for the irresponsible spending/speculation of others.

I see fiat money / paper currency, and paper wealth (stocks etc) in general as simply promises or IOU's. If you hold the IOU's someone owe's you a service or product - call it a favour - whereas if you issue IOU's (take on debt) you need to do something for someone or give something to someone in the future. There comes a point where the number of people issuing IOU's is so large that the people who think they are rich because they are owed so many favours are deluded / out of luck - because it becomes impossible for the people owing them to actually provide all of those services or products when called upon, even if they work the rest of their lives in servitude to do so - and then it all collapses (defaults, wars, revolutions, economic crises etc).

I recall as a child my brother and I had to take it in turn to do the dishes each night. My older brother was lazy (or smart...or both) and kept asking me to do his turn and that he'd owe me one. I did about 4 weeks straight, the whole time thinking that I had accrued a bunch of IOU's that would allow me to not have to wash dishes for 4 weeks myself. What I didn't count on was my brother deciding that the burden had grown so large by then that he decided to just refuse and "default" on all of his promises. I didn't have to learn that lesson again - a promise is not worth anything until it's full-filled - until then it can vanish at any moment.

Sorry that turned into a long rant!

Cheers,

Dom

Originally Posted by woodPixel

--> Do you REALLY think that the GFC was "solved"? Really?

I didn't say that at all, and can't work out how you could it construe it that way. I said we avoided a recession due to the massive Govt spending, which came at its own cost.

Maybe better to read my posts in detail, rather than scan read. With important posts I don't just speed keyboard them out - they are very carefully considered for some time, read, re-read, and often edited.

Originally Posted by DomAU

- a promise is not worth anything until it's full-filled - until then it can vanish at any moment.

Brings to mind all of the BS that we have been subjected to for the last couple of weeks.

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

I didn't say that at all, and can't work out how you could it construe it that way. I said we avoided a recession due to the massive Govt spending, which came at its own cost.

Maybe better to read my posts in detail, rather than scan read. With important posts I don't just speed keyboard them out - they are very carefully considered for some time, read, re-read, and often edited.

Sorry FF, I wasn't referring to any of your posts. Apologies if it seemed that way.