CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

**derekcohen** · 16th March 2020, 04:53 PM

And I’m going to express an optimistic view. This world has amazing capabilities of doing amazing science. And if we apply it and work together, I think we can control this problem.

Dr Sedger: Yes, absolutely. I would endorse that. And I’d say that the mortality rates at the moment simply reflect who is being tested. And it’s primarily people who are turning up with symptoms.
But we’re now beginning to appreciate that there is a large number of people who could be quite asymptomatic, who are never tested. This virus will certainly have infected many more people than will be tested.
And if we did have surveillance of every single person being tested, then there’s two questions here: Are you testing for the presence of the virus? If they’ve had virtually no symptoms and not a big illness, you might not find the virus.
But if we test for the presence of an immune response to the virus, we would truly know how many people have been infected. And then we could get a true estimate or at least a much closer estimate of what the mortality rate really is. So at the moment, there’s hyperbole.
Sunanda Creagh: And Catherine asks, what is the likelihood of transmission through using a public swimming pool?
Dr Sedger: I would think quite small because a) the virus would be quite diluted in a swimming pool. Secondly, swimming pools are all treated with chlorine, for example, and chlorine is a very effective anti-viral agent. You’d have to drink a lot of swimming pool water to get the virus.
Professor Wallach: I agree with that.
Sunanda Creagh: Candy would like to know: there are conflicting symptoms lists circulating on Facebook. One says it starts with a dry cough and if your nose is running, it is not COVID-19, which I suspect is incorrect. Can we please have an accurate list?
Professor Wallach: So, again, the major symptoms are, in fact, the cough and shortness of breath and fever. But, it’s not to say it’s not possible that you’ll have also upper respiratory effects.
The virus goes into the lung and attaches to the alveolar cells or to the cells that make up our air sacs and that help our breathing. And it has to get there to really cause this disease.

So if there’s upper respiratory involvement, which includes sneezing and runny nose, et cetera, it’s probably not the main effect of the virus.

Again, I would say if you see that somebody is sneezing and wheezing and and that’s it, it’s probably an allergy, but it does frighten people. I was on the train this morning, and I know if I, God forbid, sneezed the whole train would empty out pretty quickly.
Dr Sedger: You know, we’re just coming into winter. And actually, it’s a really good question because at the moment, what’s building is a sense of fear. But we must keep in perspective that there will also still be the normal seasonal cases of flu.

So just because somebody sneezes or has a sore throat does not mean that they’ve got COVID-19. And we need to make sure, I think it’s really important that we don’t stigmatise people who have symptoms because it may not even be COVID. And we’re all at risk from any respiratory tract infections and already have been for years.

That’s not a new thing. We just need to keep things in perspective.
Sunanda Creagh: A question from Karen: can you catch it twice?
Dr Sedger: Normally, I would have said no, because we imagine that there’s a good immune response that will then provide you protection from re-infection. That’s what our immune system does.
But this is a new virus. We don’t yet fully understand how our immune system clears it. We don’t know whether virus can remain for a longer period of time. I would would say, though, that there are only a few cases of people who have been treated, appear to have recovered, they’ve gone home, they’ve then had another relapse.
There’s only a very few number of cases that have been like that. So for all intents and purposes, I don’t think that’s something we should fear and it’s not something we’ve seen with the previous SARS outbreak in 2003.
Sunanda Creagh: And Tim would like to know: how will quarantine work in a family?
Dr Sedger: Yeah, it’s interesting, isn’t it? We think of quarantine as being away from work or away from public places. But really, if you have been infected, then the people in your family are as at risk as your work colleagues would be at work. Again, I think it’s about just common sense. Don’t share food utensils, wash your hands, don’t keep touching your face and your mouth and your nose. Get rid of tissues in a nice sort of clean manner. It’s about minimising transmission.
Professor Wallach: Let me just add to that, that all the data indicates that children likely will only get very mild symptoms, if at all. So if you’re a family member and you’re worried about your children, this is one time that you can be happy about this. All the results so far indicate that children aged zero to nine, there’s not been a single death.
Dr Sedger: Whereas what we do know is the elderly appear to be more susceptible to a more severe disease. So that’s where if I’m sick, it’s better not to go and visit my grandparents or something like that. That’s where quarantine within the family works in a practical sense.
Sunanda Creagh: And just to finish up, is there anything else that you’d like to add?
Dr Sedger: Yeah, I think I’d just want to finish with a really positive note. I mean, we live in an amazing era of medical research and science.
Within a very, very short period of time, parts of the virus had been sequenced. We now track the virus in its entire sequence. We know, we have clinical trials for the drugs. We have people working on vaccines. We have epidemiologists better understanding the disease susceptibility within a population.
I mean, we learn a lot from other existing outbreaks of infectious diseases. And I remain positive that, you know, the medical and scientific community working together will be able to solve this. I’m quite confident that there’s a really strong response.

**derekcohen** · 16th March 2020, 04:54 PM

That’s not to diminish that people have died and it’s been tragic. But we live in an era where we’re exposed to infectious agents and we are getting better and better at controlling most of those infections.

Professor Wallach: So I’ll just add and put in a plug for a program I’m very much involved with called Spark working with people at Stanford. We established a program for exactly this time, when there’s sudden outbreaks. And the program now involves 23 countries and around 70 institutions, all working together for outbreaks of Zika, Ebola and now coronavirus.
It gives me great hope that, apart from what you said, we’re now working together collaboratively like never before. We’re putting our egos outside and we’re saying we have social responsibility to do better.
Certainly, in the case of a pandemic.
And we’re doing it. And we’re very proud to be able to say we have 15 projects going on now collaboratively that we just formed over the past two weeks, together with our colleagues all over the world. I also believe in a very bright future.

Current Australian coronavirus statistics - 16 March 2020

Total: 249 confirmed cases, including three deaths:

1 in ACT
111 in NSW
46 in Queensland
19 in SA
6 in Tasmania
49 in Victoria
17 in WA
10 of those were associated with the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Source: Department of Health, Coronavirus health alert

**doug3030** · 16th March 2020, 04:54 PM

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

What would have happened, as a presenter/journalist in contact with many people, if he had done a Scott Morrison?

Nobody wanted to shake hands with Morrison in the bushfire zones anyway.

Originally Posted by BobL

I’m concerned by “limited numbers” in any sort of group gatherings. Whether it 10, 99, 250 or 500. If it means more than one person from outside a communal family group the virus has a much greater chance of spreading.

That bothers me too, Bob. It makes no sense when you can still go on a train with 1000 others.

Or Scott Morrison's religious mob could host the Hillsong gathering on the two days before the 500 people limit went onto gatherings. Funny how it was announced on the Friday and did not come into force until the Monday and Hillsong was on the two days in between.

And why wait until there's a crowd of 1000 gathering at the gates of the Grand Prix sneezing and coughing on each other before cancelling the event?

**BobL** · 16th March 2020, 06:06 PM

Just came back from my GP today - in the waiting room I sat as far away as possible from everyone 3 seats minimum in all directions. 10 seats away from the bloke with the red eye/nose and box of tissues.
The GP sent me off to get an Xray of my broken ankle so should find out in a couple of days if all is OK
The Radiographer reckons it's healed but he will send thru an official report to the GP in a day or so.
Then I can dump the 'effing moonboot - HOORAY!
I brought my own pack of hand sanitiser but didn't need to use it as the surgery and the Radiographers has packs everywhere.
I did my hands 6 times and didn't touch anything while I was there.

After nearly three months of doing nothing I'm rather desperate to get out in the park with the dogs and regain some fitness if I'm going to eventually get this virus.

Interesting to hear my GPs take on COVID19.
He reckons anyone over 60 with pre-existing medical conditions like mine should be taking COVID very seriously and isolate themselves immediately from all social situations except for immediate family.
Anyone over 70 without any pre-existing conditions should also consider that - something along the lines of what the UK gov is considering.
He said the government is doing too little, too late, especially as far as seniors are concerned.

Oh well, we both been stuck at home for the last 5 weeks (6 weeks for me) so we've had plenty of practice and should be able to just carry on as usual.

**BobL** · 16th March 2020, 07:57 PM

When are the govt going to learn basic maths?

The current doubling rate of confirmed (let alone unconfirmed cases) cases now looks like its just 3 days - we're no different to anyone else.

It matters near NIL what the number of infections are today
If its 300 today, its 600 by the 19th, 1200 by the 22nd, 2400 by the 25th etc,
4800 by the 28th
.
.
20000 by early April
OK the number of recoveries will get greater but even then there will be more than the total numbers of infected Chinese by the school holidays.

When are they going to do something serious about this?
Waiting until Friday to do the next step is just nuts.

**Kuffy** · 16th March 2020, 08:11 PM

Crown Casino is where I lose all of my money and catch most of my flu's and colds. It's a really gross place because there are so many people there touching things, pressing things, coughing all over the screens/cards/chips. So gross. I'm glad they recognize this too. Here is an email I received from Crown Casino Melbourne today.

Crown’s first priority is the safety and well-being of its employees, guests and the community.
In light of the current circumstances surrounding COVID-19 and following consultation with the Victorian Government, Crown Melbourne has initiated the following social distancing measures, effective immediately:

Every second gaming machine and electronic table game has been turned off
Distancing at seated table games between players, including no standing players
Restricting the number of players at each stand-up table game (Roulette, Big Wheel and Sic-Bo) to five players, and
Restricting the number of patrons in individual food & beverage, banqueting, theatre and conference facilities to 450 persons with a prescribed maximum density
Hotels will continue to operate as per normal

The above measures have been approved by the Victorian Chief Health Officer.

Crown Melbourne has also implemented other precautionary measures, including the provision of alcohol-based hand sanitiser and more frequent and strengthened cleaning measures.

Crown continues to recommend that our guests regularly use the hand sanitisers located throughout the complex. We also ask you to advise staff if you are feeling unwell while on site, as we have medically trained staff to assist.

If you are experiencing flu-like symptoms we politely ask that you not visit the complex.

Crown will continue to closely monitor the situation and follow guidelines from relevant health authorities.

Thank you for your cooperation and understanding.

If there was going to be an epicenter for a virus to spread from, I would be betting that it would be Crown.

**Lappa** · 16th March 2020, 08:42 PM

So BobL. What should be done and for how long? There was/is talk of waiting two weeks then closing down the schools, Unis, etc. for 2 weeks which will then be followed by the 2 weeks holidays. Is that sufficient or is it too late?

**Simplicity** · 16th March 2020, 08:43 PM

It seems our government is still running with cash is king mentality.
If only they saw what other countries had done(or not done).
I’m sure Hillsong was a big hit on the weekend tho.

Cheers Matt

**BobL** · 16th March 2020, 09:40 PM

Originally Posted by Lappa

So BobL. What should be done and for how long? There was/is talk of waiting two weeks then closing down the schools, Unis, etc. for 2 weeks which will then be followed by the 2 weeks holidays. Is that sufficient or is it too late?

From this point onwards I would be in favour of:

Except for Aussies, Complete suspension of OS air travel, and reduce the public event social limit numbers to 10, immediately, yes you can have 10 people in a small snack bar or bar for a few days.
Uni/schools shutdown within 24 hours, don't wait and see if this has an effect - it won't be much anyway
Full social (restaurants, bars, non life support stores, etc) lockdown by next monday See below,
A completely Chinese/Italian style lockdown (at least in Sydney) should probably the following week.
The Gov could look at least look a selective shut down first - Sydney looks like the the go at the mo, but Brisbane and Melb are not that far behind. Would have to be tomorrow. Not going to be popular but might even give the bushfire people a chance to recover?
Upgrading testing and chasing down possible infectees, like the Koreans, Taiwanese and Singaporeans are doing.
Don't wait for people to reinforce nutter science on the interest - Single point official What'sApp or similar mobile updates for the whole population twice a day like the Singaporeans are doing.
Mobile phone tracking of infectees - draconian but emergency powers would get around that.
A proper media campaign that doesn't look like a pukey hospital ward wall.

Unfortunately they don't have enough testing chemicals to do this properly.
Like the 6 known infected people who went to a wedding on the weekend - if even a couple of these had been tracked before hand they might have been stopped from attending.
This takes $$ and possibly some draconian measures but for every $ not spent on this in the short term will result in months of hospital chaos that no amount of $$ will fix.
Why haven't we got 10000 people work on tracking and testing today?

The authorities keep talking about flattening the curve but not really doing much towards that.
When the decision is made to flatten it then at least do it seriously and within 24 hours - too many pollies in the way worried about the economy.
It's easy to say these things in hind site but something like this would have helped.
A 500 person limit is almost useless.
The Media adds are too crappy and too late.
The incoming travel quarantine was 3 weeks too late, it's already being demonstrated that this sort of thing is only going to have small impact on slowing the infection rate and any effect is only going to show up as a slight blip in the infection rate in ~2 weeks time.
Except for Aussies returning, there should have been no air travel two weeks ago which is also when ed institutions should have shut down.

I hope they remember for next time because there will most definitely be a next time.

**Lappa** · 17th March 2020, 07:29 AM

Well predicted BobL. Newspaper heading this morning.

D7044EF4-BAFF-4804-BEC2-1F23C29CA001.jpg

**Tccp123** · 17th March 2020, 09:26 AM

I've just experienced Coronavirus hell! It was worse than Dante’s Inferno!

A SUPERMARKET FULL OF OLD PEOPLE!...including me!

When they’re not just ‘propping’ in the middle of an aisle to get their bearings they’re stopping to chat with some other old fogie. And they all have a shopping cart!!

And to make matters worse I didn’t even have to show my senior’s card to get in. The guy said he trusted me !!! And don't get me started on the situation in the car park!

If this is what we have to look forward to, heaven help us!

**BobL** · 17th March 2020, 09:42 AM

Originally Posted by Lappa

Well predicted BobL. Newspaper heading this morning.

Not really - I've just had time to read/listen/watch a variety of reasonably creditable sources and where possible chase/validate their references

**BobL** · 17th March 2020, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by Tccp123

I've just experienced Coronavirus hell! It was worse than Dante’s Inferno!
A SUPERMARKET FULL OF OLD PEOPLE!...including me!

Depressing isn't it.
It sounds terribly ageist but my recommended cure is to visit a high care dementia care centre, chances are you won't look quite as old and possibly slightly more "normal".
I've also been called a "young bloke" and my mum calls me her baby boy!

When they’re not just ‘propping’ in the middle of an aisle to get their bearings they’re stopping to chat with some other old fogie. And they all have a shopping cart!!

Usually with one item in it!

My seniors card story is back when I first got my card I presented it for the first time at my regular/local IGA who give a 5% discount for seniors and mentioned that this was the first time I had used the card. The young checkout assistant said "I've been automatically giving you the Seniors discount for about a year!"

**BobL** · 17th March 2020, 10:50 AM

That many oldies in any one place is completely daft and a sure fire way of spreading the virus amongst the most vulnerable. Where possible Online shopping should be undertaken by oldies if they want to reduce their risks.

**Tccp123** · 17th March 2020, 11:03 AM

Originally Posted by BobL

That many oldies in any one place is completely daft and a sure fire way of spreading the virus amongst the most vulnerable. Where possible Online shopping should be undertaken by oldies if they want to reduce their risks.

Apparently on-line shopping is no longer available. (I thought that sounded too easy)

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