Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Originally Posted by Handyjack

PS: Does anyone know if Bunnings or M10 are still open? Does anyone care?

Here in Victoria yes they are (at the moment).
Yes I care. I need the hardware store open for spare parts and other supplies.[/QUOTE]

still open and trading normally........they are pretty busy with everyone stocking up

At work today, we have implemented a bunch of things to reduce infection between the office, the guys upstairs designing roof trusses and the grunts like me on the factory floor. No one is to enter another section anymore which is pretty easy for the office workers and the designers. But the factory has multiple zones and processes, of which I can operate all at speed, but most staff can only do one or two zones as assistants. With the amount of work winding down, we are needing to move around a lot having person A work with person B on machine Z, and then person A needs to move to another area and work with person C on machine Y etc etc. So apart from allocating a tape measure, hammer, staple gun and any other bits n pieces to each grunt, we now need to disinfect machinery as we begin to work on them. My point is, social distancing with just ~10ppl doing set processes is a freeken nightmare. I'm in favour of eradicating the virus rather than herd immunity (flattening the curve), as eradication just seems much more plausible. I reckon as more voices like mine are heard, lock down will be in full force by Sunday night.

Originally Posted by BobL

We haven't reached peak infection but simple scaling suggests that once the 704 cases reach ~50,000 there will be enough serious cases amongst them to require all the ICU beds. That of course assumes assumes similar rates of seriousness and no deaths or recoveries amongst the current serious cases. It also leaves no beds for any other ICU cases.
Hopefully the recent changes will help slow things down other wise it will be too late.

As we have 2229 ICU beds, that gives us a 4.4% max requiring ICU at 50,000 infections. It’s going to be close.

i spoke to my sister today - she’s in lockdown in country California. She said Trumpy is considering lifting the lockdowns but she reckons the Governors will overrule him.
My ears are still burning from her appraisal of the guy.

An Italian cousin works as a carpenter/joiner from a home wood workshop in a small village in the Alps (district of Trento) and says no hardware stores are open in his district. He's only permitted to work if its an emergency - he makes doors and window fames so not a lot of call for this. So far in 3 weeks of shut down he's only done one paid job replacing a damaged window in a house in the mountains. He does a few odd jobs for himself otherwise he's totally locked down.

Originally Posted by BobL

An Italian cousin works as a carpenter/joiner from a home wood workshop in a small village in the Alps (district of Trento) and says no hardware stores are open in his district. He's only permitted to work if its an emergency - he makes doors and window fames so not a lot of call for this. So far in 3 weeks of shut down he's only done one paid job replacing a damaged window in a house in the mountains. He does a few odd jobs for himself otherwise he's totally locked down.

We're already seeing this and we're not even locked down. My local FB page is full of people asking for work. And this is only a week and a half into it. What's it going to be like after six months?

Originally Posted by Tccp123

We're already seeing this and we're not even locked down. My local FB page is full of people asking for work. And this is only a week and a half into it. What's it going to be like after six months?

He's got work do but he's not allowed to do it, or hasn't got the timber or the fixtures and can't get them because the sellers are shut.

Not sure if anyone has posted this:

Telehealth system expanded to help patients get help during coronavirus pandemic, more test kits and masks on the way - ABC News

Regards from Perth

Derek

Test1.jpg

Good effort, .06%

At the moment in my area, most businesses are open and it’s business as usual, although lack of patronage is evident in the retail shops. Supermarkets are busy. Obviously restaurants, coffee shops are take away only but most coffee shops were opening around 7am this morning. My favourite coffee shop still had tables on top of each other before the latest close down and people were avoiding it like the plague so there is hope that people are listening. Now they are take away only.
I still had a class Monday with one notified absence. We were supposed to have a hookup with management who were going to explain the future today but that didn’t eventuate which is not uncommon when they call meetings.
None of the students have been told about close downs at work so I can’t see much changing in my industry unless they go UK style.

What are others seeing in your neighbourhood?

A Debt Jubilee will need to be called.

3 months, perhaps 6.

Originally Posted by Tccp123

Test1.jpg

Good effort, .06%

Unfortunately it's not possible to test everyone in Australia as there are simply not enough test kits in the whole world to do that ?

The best we can hope for is targeted testing and tracking/monitoring which is what Korea has done with about the same number of tests per head of population.

I see Sydney Westmead hospital has developed a blood test that can pick up if anyone had the virus and survived so if this is applied routinely to anyone having a blood test so medical authorities will get a handle of the numbers that have had mild cases that have had it without anyone knowing about it.

Just watched the PMs latest effort - talk about farting around at the edges of the problem ie beauty salons are now out but hair dressers are in?

If you are only supposed to go outside your house do the shopping, work, bank, pharmacy, medical appointments or helping someone then why the heck are all those other stores and shopping centres left open. Doesn't stack up IMHO.

There are supposed to be 500,000 of the new 15 minute tests landing in Oz this week.

South Korea are on the ball apparently. They have testing stations everywhere. They were quite well prepared because they have had similar viruses previously.
On channel 7 tonight

For those that want to get objective, factual information about the statistics - see this site. I think its the best you will get. A lot of VERY detailed analysis and NO speculation.
(Also very worthwhile looking at the analysis for other data sets - lot of categories to pore over)

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research - Our World in Data

Of interest:
" ...the data shows South Korea has done many more tests than other countries. That means we can expect that in South Korea the number of confirmed cases – positive tests – is closer to the real number of infected people than it is in other countries.That makes it encouraging to see that the number of daily confirmed cases in South Korea has gone down...."

" ...journalists pretend that the case fatality rate (CFR) gives an answer to the question [How likely is it that a person who is infected by COVID-19 dies because of it]. But this is not the case.
While it is a relevant metric, the CFR does not in fact tell us the risk for an infected person to die..."

"...if it is the case that the number of total cases is higher than the number of confirmed cases, then the ratio between deaths and total cases is smaller than the ratio between deaths and confirmed cases.
This also means that when we compare the CFR between different countries, the differences do not only reflect higher rates of mortality, but also differences in the scale of testing efforts..."

What is important is to try and understand the possibility of exponential growth, while understanding that the initial exponential growth may not be constant over time.

"...The trajectory of China and South Korea shows that the speed at which cases rise is not necessarily constant over time. Both countries saw a rapid initial rise but then implemented severe counter measures ... the trajectory became flatter, the speed of the outbreak has decreased..."

This is all to say that it is INCREDIBLY important to try and understand the detail of the figures being thrown around. Political 10 second sound bites and shock-jock headlines just don't cut it. Its complex.