Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

I agree the US data is suss.

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Some statistics that I think would be useful for comparing Australia to the rest of the world would be how many people returned here from overseas (and where from) in the last 6 weeks in comparison to other countries who have a lot of travellers. Expressed per capita in relation to infections could tell a particular story.

Because of the Schengen agreement in Europe that would have been impossible to determine until borders were closed and even now I doubt they are recording traveller origins.

A bit of history...

This week economist John Quiggin lamented the fact that Kevin Rudd doesn’t get more credit for economic management, given the fact that Australia came through the global financial crisis in solid shape and has avoided a recession. This is a common source of puzzlement amongst some, but let me solve this apparent conundrum.
The first thing to note is that Rudd’s economic management did not, in fact, save Australia from the fate that befell other countries. European countries have not been in crisis because they did not have him at the helm; the US did not suffer an economic disaster because it wanted for a Wayne Swan when the crisis hit. Greece and other countries are not in economic catastrophe mode simply because they failed to send out $900 cheques to their citizens.
The simple fact is that all of these countries went into the disaster-zone in 2008 because when the global financial crisis hurricane hit, they had high government debt and high budget deficits, which made them extremely vulnerable to adverse shocks. Had any one of these countries’ governments faced the crisis with zero government debt and consistent budget surpluses, they would have been considered pillars of strength rather than sources of weakness. What those European countries wanted for, in other words, was Australian treasurer Peter Costello running their budgets in the long lead-up to 2008.
Australia hit the 2008 crisis in rude financial health: debt-free, growing strongly with significant assets and running surplus budgets. It is these robust foundations, along with very favourable terms of trade, which guaranteed that Australia would survive the crisis in very good shape.
Just prior to the crisis, reserve bank governor Glenn Stevens drew attention to the magnificent financial position built up over more than a decade by Costello, saying that “the capacity to respond, if need be, to developments in the future is virtually without peer.” Little did he know at the time, but three months later that position of economic strength would be tested in the most dramatic fashion.
The pre-existing strength of the Australian government’s finances were to prove a bulwark against the economic storm and investors, businesspeople, consumers and financial markets were greatly reassured by the strength of the Australian economy. On top of those firm foundations, each political party in Australia was in the wonderful position of being able to offer stimulus packages drawing on these sound finances. People will debate the merits of the respective stimulus packages, but with its strong terms of trade, Australia was foreordained to outperform other countries once the storm hit, and foreordained to receive accolades from the International Monetary Fund for doing so.
The most important lesson about the global financial crisis is not about what happened after it hit but in what happened in the lead-up, and this can be summarised simply: don’t put your country into a zone of financial vulnerability.
How did so many leaders allow their countries to drift into that zone? They tried to explain that rising debt levels were not unreasonable compared to other countries. When quizzed about growing budget deficits in the UK, for example, chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown would always point out that Britain’s government debt and deficit levels were reasonable when one looked at other comparable countries. “Net debt is now 47% of national income in France, 47% in America, in Germany 62%, in Japan 83% and in Italy over 100% – but this year in Britain 36.4%,” Brown said in 2006 as he revealed yet another gradual economic deterioration.
Of course, Brown’s reassuring words masked a position of disastrous weakness, and this weakness only became evident when the crisis sent the British economy into a tailspin from which it has still not recovered.
The next time you hear mollifying words from Rudd that our rising debt levels are at reasonable levels compared to other countries, think about how Britons were lulled into the financial danger zone and ask yourself: are we on the same trajectory?

There are some excellent figures showing number of travellers send origins for 2019. Unfortunately the only stats. for 2020 are for January (published 16/3/2020) but they only show numbers, not origin.

Came across this from a report in the Daily Telegraph today.

8860433C-4D01-42A8-9327-5A0C2BBCFB86.jpg

Well said Tccp123

Those who can't see that probably run their own finances the same way a poorly run country runs theirs - with all the credit cards and loans maxxed out.

This graph is interesting - new infections detected per day, by state.
It's early days but it looks like the WA and SA state shutdowns might be working.
I think it was sort of already happening before it was made official last week.
Also I think the early self quarantining was probably a bit on the slack side and now they are taking it a bit more seriously.

COIDSTATEXSTATE.jpg

Caveat: I do not suggest that Wayne Swan was particularly good at his job. However...

Originally Posted by Tccp123

A bit of history...

This week economist John Quiggin lamented the fact that Kevin Rudd doesn’t get more credit for economic management
snip
snip
and ask yourself: are we on the same trajectory?

You haven't shown what the source & author is - that's important for full disclosure. It can be deduced that it was from 2013 (following the link to John Quiggin).

Originally Posted by Tccp123

What those European countries wanted for, in other words, was Australian treasurer Peter Costello running their budgets in the long lead-up to 2008.

This is an absolute crock.

What those European countries wanted for was a land full of resources that China wanted. Costello was lucky and lazy. Any idiot with a pulse and an abacus could have balanced the books in those years. There was a tourism filip after the Olympics, where tourism was almost 4% of GDP. They were sought and won by the NSW Govt (no doubt with Fed assistance) long before Costello was Treasurer. Then there was that little thing called the mining boom that was delivering enormous amounts of money for Costello to play with. So they bought off the electorate with three rounds of tax cuts, when only the first was justified. What they could have done was try and keep our manufacturing industry smart and alive, with some very prudent investment, but no, bribing the electorate so they could stay in power was more important.

Originally Posted by Tccp123

Australia hit the 2008 crisis in rude financial health: debt-free, growing strongly with significant assets and running surplus budgets. It is these robust foundations, along with very favourable terms of trade, which guaranteed that Australia would survive the crisis in very good shape.

This is true, but not due to any savviness from Costello. It was because the Chinese wanted every bit of resource we would sell them. Jaysus, we even sold them Darwin Port eventually.


Joe Hockey: "...we will deliver the surplus in our first year and every later year."
Ahh, nope. Six budgets and counting.

If they had cruise chips berthing and idiots letting them in without testing, then their numbers may be a little different.

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

You haven't shown what the source & author is - that's important for full disclosure.

So if source and author is so important to you Brett, can you please supply source and author in support of what you said below, in the interest of full disclosure?

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

What those European countries wanted for was a land full of resources that China wanted. Costello was lucky and lazy. Any idiot with a pulse and an abacus could have balanced the books in those years. There was a tourism filip after the Olympics, where tourism was almost 4% of GDP. They were sought and won by the NSW Govt (no doubt with Fed assistance) long before Costello was Treasurer. Then there was that little thing called the mining boom that was delivering enormous amounts of money for Costello to play with. So they bought off the electorate with three rounds of tax cuts, when only the first was justified. What they could have done was try and keep our manufacturing industry smart and alive, with some very prudent investment, but no, bribing the electorate so they could stay in power was more important.

SWMBO has been making some masks for kids and I asked for one with the same front design hoping it might persuade eedjets to steer clear.
Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?
Mask2.jpg

Leased the Darwin Port - not sold

Brett manufacturing was never going to survive in this country and both sides of politics have acknowledged that. Nobody is prepared to work for third world wages here

Originally Posted by BobL

Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?

You look nothing like I'd imagined (that's good but yes suitably infected!

Originally Posted by BobL

SWMBO has been making some masks for kids and I asked for one with the same front design hoping it might persuade eedjets to steer clear.
Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?
Mask2.jpg

If you hadn't combed your hair so nicely you would probably look a lot scarier.

Originally Posted by BobL

This graph is interesting - new infections detected per day, by state.
It's early days but it looks like the WA and SA state shutdowns might be working.

I think at least another 5-7 days of stats would be required for a reliable trend in that Bob. Too many wild cards like the Ruby Princess fiasco in NSW, most international flights arrive on the Eastern Seaboard etc etc. NSW has been trending down too, and the Rottnest Island stats might blow WA out of the water (unless McGowan cheats and doesn't count them ).