Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

#4 has died of the bug at my nans care centre in Ryde/Mcquarie yesterday.

Makes all these theoretical discussions a bit more real....

Originally Posted by Tccp123

Does anyone actually know anyone with the Corona Virus?

Apologies for the delay. Its 3am and no work tomorrow, so I played Black Mesa on Steam for hours and hours!

Yes. I live in a block of 180 units, divided into 3 buildings. The young bloke next door to me has it. His two co-renters abandoned him 2 weeks ago. He's been spending his time gaming, watching movies and getting outrageously drunk, quite often.

There is talk on the buildings Facebook group that a couple on the upper floor are infected, but everyone is being very deliberately polite in not fingering them. Stigma and all that.

There is also talk of two cases in the upper building, but I don't know the facts.

So, yes, this beastie is really getting around.

I dont know anyone personally.

Originally Posted by BobL

The Spanish flu was also not just one flu. The first wave was mild and had a low death rate (also not unlike COVID19), it was the second wave that knocked us for 6 and the same could happen with COVID19.

Just to emphasise the potential consequences of the first wave of the H1N1 (usually, and incorrectly, called Spanish Flu) outbreak in 1918, subsequent waves of infection were much worse, but fortunately by then quarantine measures had been much improved.

On 7 November 1918, the S.S. Talune docked in Apia. (Note that 7 November 1918 was about four days before the official end of WWI -- 11 November 1918, and approximately 12 - 18 months before the H1N1 epidemic's peak.) Although the ship had been quarantined in Fiji, passengers exhibiting symptoms of influenza were permitted to disembark in Apia. The result:
"The total number of deaths attributable to influenza was later estimated to have reached 8500, or 22% of [Samoa's] population."
Source: Influenza in Samoa - The 1918 influenza pandemic | NZHistory, New Zealand history online

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

I can see strong social arguments for assisting our regional airlines, and possibly Qantas, but I fail to see why any charity should be extended to Virgin Australia.

Virgin Australia is over 90% foreign owned and largely by foreign governments whose pockets are far deeper than the Australian Governments.

Ownership of Virgin Australia
20.94% Etihad Airways - Owned by Government of Abu Dhabi
20.09% Singapore Airlines - Majority ownership (56%) plus “golden share” owned by Singapore Government.
19.98% Nanshan Group - Ownership is rather murky, but “…Nanshan (Corporation) is effectively the government of Nanshan (City of 150,000)…”.
19.82% HNA Group - Owned by Hainan Provincial Government
10.42% Virgin Group - British private company founded by Richard Branson.
8.75% ASX - Publicly listed shares.
Source: Virgin Australia Holdings - Wikipedia

Originally Posted by Beardy

but it is not about who owns a company it is about how much they contribute to our economy. Virgin employs about 10,000 Aussies directly and then there are all the other businesses that provide services to them so the number for that business alone staying viable in Australia could easily be in the order of 50,000 jobs

but that is assuming that no other operator (including Qantas) is willing to step in and make up the demand.
Assuming that travel patterns return to pre-Covid-19 levels within 12 months -- not that big of an assumption -- most of Virgin's staff would easily find jobs with Qantas and Jetstar.

Think of how Qantas "bounced back" following Ansett's demise in the wake of 9/11.

Originally Posted by ian

but that is assuming that no other operator (including Qantas) is willing to step in and make up the demand.
Assuming that travel patterns return to pre-Covid-19 levels within 12 months -- not that big of an assumption -- most of Virgin's staff would easily find jobs with Qantas and Jetstar.

Think of how Qantas "bounced back" following Ansett's demise in the wake of 9/11.

Grahams response was in reference to my post #860 about supporting big business in general and has highlighted Virgin.
Just the same, even if Qantas took up the slack on Virgins demise the jobs lost would be significant as you only have one set of infrastructure running V two. When Holden close , they don’t all get a job at Ford.

My broader point and not aimed at any business in particular is we need to have jobs to recover financially after this.

Originally Posted by Cgcc

Pointing to relatively low numbers is like standing under an umbrella while it's raining and saying, "See, it's not so bad. I don't know why everyone's saying umbrellas are so important. I'm only getting a few drops. Let's not get hysterical about holding onto this umbrella."

And the problem with using analogies is that the wording can convey any meaning you wish. For example:

"See, it's not so bad. I don't know why everyone's saying umbrellas are a nuisance. At least they save us from the rain which the experts say will kill 4% of us if it gets on our skin"

Originally Posted by Tccp123

At least they save us from the rain which the experts say will kill 4% of us if it gets on our skin"

Can you please provide source and author for that expert opinion?

now is the time when I laugh at my kids about living in a country town and still have no neighbours...was getting tired of the 5 acre block...not any more.
wifey has always had a pantry full of food, convinced we could feed big family for 4 months, 2 freezers stacked with meat, buy from a farmer mate who culls his own lamb, pork & beef. Milk is the problem, dont even think of putting dried stuff near me, from the udder into the fridge

Feel (sometimes ) for those that live in cities....

Originally Posted by ian

Just to emphasise the potential consequences of the first wave of the H1N1 (usually, and incorrectly, called Spanish Flu) outbreak in 1918, subsequent waves of infection were much worse, but fortunately by then quarantine measures had been much improved.

On 7 November 1918, the S.S. Talune docked in Apia. (Note that 7 November 1918 was about four days before the official end of WWI -- 11 November 1918, and approximately 12 - 18 months before the H1N1 epidemic's peak.) Although the ship had been quarantined in Fiji, passengers exhibiting symptoms of influenza were permitted to disembark in Apia. The result:
"The total number of deaths attributable to influenza was later estimated to have reached 8500, or 22% of [Samoa's] population."
Source: Influenza in Samoa - The 1918 influenza pandemic | NZHistory, New Zealand history online

Even today indigenous peoples especially in isolated communities are usually a lot more susceptible to flus.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...110103718.htmT

Prof Peter Doherty in that article

Similarly, as many as 10-20 per cent of Indigenous Australians died of influenza in 1919, compared to <1% mortality rate in non-Indigenous Australians. Hospitalisation and morbidity rates were also higher for Indigenous Australians,

and Professor Kedzierska in same article.

The genetic susceptibility of Indigenous Australian and Alaskans would have resulted from isolation of indigenous populations from the viruses like influenza. The indigenous populations were not subjected to evolutionary pressures caused by the viruses over the centuries.

Originally Posted by doug3030

Can you please provide source and author for that expert opinion?

"Experts" is a good subject because it seems we have a plethora of them. We also have a much larger "plethora" that is "DNA related" so expert advice is not in short supply.

The current UK expert in vogue is Neil Ferguson who heads an Imperial College, London team that has claimed 510,000 people in the UK would die from coronavirus if nothing was done. This is the same expert who in 2001 encouraged the unnecessary slaughter of millions of livestock (F&M disease) costing countless numbers of farmers their living.

He has since revised that number (multiple times) and now it could be as low as 5,700 his team is saying.

That is the problem with putting your blind faith in the experts. Sometimes they don't know either (but may not be in a position to be able to say that) especially if they have a flawed track record.

Originally Posted by ian

(usually, and incorrectly, called Spanish Flu)

Hahaha! Classic strawman. Well actually it's not called a spud, it's called a potato .

For the uninformed it was so named because it appeared towards the end of WWI. At the time propaganda was used to the nth degree and although the SF was thought to have originated in the US there was no way they wanted to show any weakness by claiming ownership of it so it was called the Spanish Flu because Spain was neutral during WWI.

Definitions of an expert;

Ex is a has been and spert is a drip under pressure.

Someone who knows more about less and less.

Originally Posted by Tccp123

Hahaha! Classic strawman. Well actually it's not called a spud, it's called a potato .

For the uninformed it was so named because it appeared towards the end of WWI. At the time propaganda was used to the nth degree and although the SF was thought to have originated in the US there was no way they wanted to show any weakness by claiming ownership of it so it was called the Spanish Flu because Spain was neutral during WWI.

Perhaps a clearer explanation is, by 1918 SF was rampant across many countries but wartime press suppression did not permit the publication of much official data in countries at war. Because Spain was neutral it had a freer press and it was one of few countries that published official flu figures. When people saw the large numbers coming out of Spain that's why they called it the SF.

BTW there were many flus right through Europe during WW2 including an especially bad one going as far back as around 1915 in the staging camps on the North Western Front and mthere is plenty of evidence that at least one strain, perhaps even the main, of the SF originated there Flu epidemic traced to Great War transit camp - Health News, Health & Families - The Independent

WWI camps with atrocious cramped conditions are thought to be much more likely breeding grounds than the alternative much cleaner and spacious US training camps.

Many injured US soldiers transited back and forth through those camps later in the war and they probably took it back to the US.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

Yes. I live in a block of 180 units, divided into 3 buildings. The young bloke next door to me has it. His two co-renters abandoned him 2 weeks ago. He's been spending his time gaming, watching movies and getting outrageously drunk, quite often.

There is talk on the buildings Facebook group that a couple on the upper floor are infected, but everyone is being very deliberately polite in not fingering them. Stigma and all that.

There is also talk of two cases in the upper building, but I don't know the facts.

So, yes, this beastie is really getting around.

I dont know anyone personally.

Thanks WP, I couldn't have asked for a better reply . I expect there will be plenty of "There's talk about..." everywhere, not just where you live.

And kudos for admitting "but I don't know the facts"

Sounds like the young neighbour who "has it" is bearing up well