Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

I don't think we can rely on those numbers being terribly accurate.

They are coming thick and fast. There is bound to be duplications and omissions.

It might take a while for everything to be tallied properly and heads accounted for, officially.

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

....but then I couldn't work out how to go back to the "world" except by shutting it down and starting again.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Yes, Paul, they didn't get that bit of Systems Science and Engineering quite right....

I just do a control refresh [Control R] on my Windoze computer. It is slow to reload, but like you it is the only way that I've found to get back to their overview dashboard.

Otherwise its quite good.

Originally Posted by NeilS

Yes, Paul, they didn't get that bit of Systems Science and Engineering quite right....

No, and surprising how many fundamental things like that can be missing from top-flight organisations' sites. Yes, just refresh the page fixes it.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

I don't think we can rely on those numbers being terribly accurate.

No, no set of figures will be up to date.

Originally Posted by Fuzzie

What worries me is the stats for recovered vs new reported cases don't seem to be following similar trajectories yet. If most people recover the graph lines should sort of mirror each other. .....

Hi Franklin

I am not sure that that assumption is correct as all the reported figures are dynamic - the infection and recovery rates of the various countries and regions are affected by the actions of their governments and their populations. This is the major rationale in the video BobL posted (#936 above).

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

The data from there sometimes does and sometimes does not match the Johns Hopkins data, but it is a least able to be copied from the table on this page Coronavirus Update (Live): 722,196 Cases and 33,976 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
so maybe that might suit Neil's purposes?

Yes, that page and several others out there allow you to sort alphabetically by country, do a copy then re-order by whatever other column you choose when you have loaded that data into your own spreadsheet, but you then have to manually enter in the population numbers in or do a fair bit of faffying around to get the rows aligned.

I did at one stage have a spreadsheet pre-loaded with the population numbers for the most relevant (for us) countries, but then some countries began to be added (like the British Virgin Islands and Timor-Leste) and then my population data was out of whack against the alphabetically sorted countries.

There are only three countries yet to record a case and when they are added the task will be easier. I might re-visit it then.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

Its one of those things isn't it. Stats and news reports are one thing, but hearing a NEXT DOOR neighbour taping up the inside of his door is another.

I get the impression, from limited meetings, that he is a bit soft anyway. He doesn't seem to be taking it well. His demeanour, aggression, drinking, anger, 3am shouting-at-the-Xbox is getting a bit out of hand. I've reprimanded him on the building facebook page and offered him assistance for projects/item/necessaries (declined).

I can easily see it turning to vigilantism. There are two bikies here, friendly chaps, but they don't strike me as dudes who will take much of that kind of shenanigans without it eventually resulting in a chat.

Before long, I think we'll all have stories. My three Chinese contacts have not come back....

Timely observation, WP.

Psychologists/psychiatrists colloqiually term this reaction as "cabin fever". It may become increasingly significant. And not just among those diagnosed positive.

Imagine the cumulative stress on someone with a mortgage, credit cards, young family, the whole catastrophe, who is stood down from work, only centrelink benefits, is in lock down in a small flat hoping his family is safe, and does not know whether his employer will survive....

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Imagine the cumulative stress on someone with a mortgage, credit cards, young family, the whole catastrophe, who is stood down from work, only centrelink benefits, is in lock down in a small flat hoping his family is safe, and does not know whether his employer will survive....

A good reminder of what some people must be going through. I imagine most of us (on this forum) won't be in this position but plenty of others will.

Originally Posted by NeilS

I did at one stage have a spreadsheet pre-loaded with the population numbers for the most relevant (for us) countries, but then some countries began to be added (like the British Virgin Islands and Timor-Leste) and then my population data was out of whack against the alphabetically sorted countries.

That's exactly why I am limiting my countries to 2000+ cases, plus they are the most relevant anyway (even using 1000+ limits it to about 45 countries atm). Then I can just add countries as they tick over into 2000+

Using yesterday's data, countries with 2000+ cases account for 92.33% of cases, and 1000+ countries are 95.66% of cases, so dropping out the <2000 countries won't skew the data very much at all.

Also, I think I'll only do every three days, because that's the doubling rate roughly.

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

I am not sure that that assumption is correct as all the reported figures are dynamic - the infection and recovery rates of the various countries and regions are affected by the actions of their governments and their populations. This is the major rationale in the video BobL posted (#936 above).

They are not independent statistics in as much as the 'removed' cohort grows inversely to the number of infections in the model. At the moment there is a lag in the reported rate of change of 'recovered' cases compared to new 'infections'. That to me means we haven't started to see the real time it takes to recover figure yet. There is some mention that it takes 4 weeks to recover to the point of not being contagious. This is a good reason for placing infected people in the isolate box as well as practicing social distancing. If 4 weeks is the real time it takes to recover I presume we should start to see the recovered graph obviously trending upwards in about another 2 weeks, hopefully not a lot of extras will be in the 'removed' numbers.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

I saw a few interesting points put forward by some (the usual crowd) right winger biz-nuts.
.......

One of my economist friends, a former FAAS in Treasury, is fond of summing the views of the classic conservative business lobby as:

* capitalise the profits, socialise the losses, and

* "I am opposed to all government intervention unless it involves a subsidy to me."

Oz Comparison.png Infections relative to geography divided by population density

Oz overlay USA.jpg

Originally Posted by woodPixel

I saw a few interesting points put forward by some (the usual crowd) right winger biz-nuts.

-- If they need yet ANOTHER bailout (after 911, GFC), they fork over, or relinquish shares to the government...
-- If they've engaged in share buybacks to enrich the execs and shareholders, then they should just as well SELL more shares....
-- One wondered WHY individuals had to rely on savings and loans to survive. He conjectured, if "corporations are people" then why treat them differently?
-- Some, rather interestingly, for companies (such as shipping) use Flags Of Convenience. they pay tax in the Bahamas/Panama, but want a USA bailout (what!!?)
-- For those companies who have PAID NO TAX, why should the TAX PAYER bail them out? They are already profitless zombies and should be put to death!

Apologies for making this discussion financial

Yeah I get all of that and that is one aspect and I know the debate comes up about them not paying company tax but company tax is just one tax out of many and yes I agree it would be best if they did pay it but even some of our high profile sports stars that many worship in this country have a foreign registered abode to avoid paying tax here but I don’t hear much said about that.
Keep in mind the indirect tax they pay/ generate through the various sales taxes, fuel excise, GST and PAYG tax of their thousands of employees, luxury car tax etc etc etc
I agree 100% that it would be good if they also paid company tax as well but if they folded or left the country then we get non of those thing plus we would have a welfare burden as well for the unemployed.

I know the current system is far from perfect but it is still better than the alternative.

Originally Posted by NeilS

Yes, Paul, they didn't get that bit of Systems Science and Engineering quite right....

I just do a control refresh [Control R] on my Windoze computer. It is slow to reload, but like you it is the only way that I've found to get back to their overview dashboard.

Otherwise its quite good.

Thanks Neil

I thought for a horrible moment my Luddite personality was becoming dominant over my IT personality (The Obsessive personality from my Dissociative Identity Disorder is, for the moment, taking a back seat until he can get uninterrupted shed time).

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Timely observation, WP.

Psychologists/psychiatrists colloqiually term this reaction as "cabin fever". It may become increasingly significant. And not just among those diagnosed positive.

Imagine the cumulative stress on someone with a mortgage, credit cards, young family, the whole catastrophe, who is stood down from work, only centrelink benefits, is in lock down in a small flat hoping his family is safe, and does not know whether his employer will survive....

Graeme (and Evan)

I turned up a reference to "cabin fever" earlier today and was a bit puzzled. I thought I had accidentally surfed onto the owners builders sites again.

Possibly most of us on this section of the Forum are either retired or still working and as such only slightly impacted.... for the moment!

On a slightly different note we apparently have our first infection here in Millmerran (pop.1400). Somebody at the local service station allegedly, but we don't know who so this has to be in the unconfirmed basket for the moment. The pumps at service stations are a high risk piece of equipment handled potentially by so many.

By the way Evan, Your video link into Wuhan seems to have stopped working. I have not been able to access that for several days now. Perhaps my cynical self is coming to the fore, but is this so the "improvement" in Chinese data cannot be dis-proved do you think?

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

...
I turned up a reference to "cabin fever" earlier today and was a bit puzzled. I thought I had accidentally surfed onto the owners builders sites again. ...

My understanding is that the term arose to describe a condition prevalent at the end of a long, cold Canadian winter. Ian may be more authoritive than me.