Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Originally Posted by doug3030

I am pretty sure that there are a lot of suitably skilled people out there with better access to more comprehensive critical data in a more timely fashion than anyone on this forum could dream of getting.

The Dept of public health is throwing everything at this. They have an army of folks especially to handle the data and modelling/projections ranging from doctors, epidemiologists, 3D Data visualisers, mathematical modellers, database people, programmers and various other IT guys, supercomputers, and couple of partridges in pear trees. They should also have the full medical records of each patient, demographic data, ties and dates, severity, symptoms, underlaying causes, etc They'll be the ones plot out the death curves etc under various scenarios.

Folks are entitled to play with any available data as much as they like so don't let this put you off

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Wow, good to see such gratitude for someone taking the time to post that info. You could have just said nothing at all, but you had to make that point eh? Wasn't it you that said you don't respond to rude or disrespectful posts? You don't mind posting them in that way though, even to someone with whom you have no beef, yet. (certainly I expect you to be rude, disrespectful, or whatever else to me, along with your tag team buddy).

Leaving myself out of the equation, it would be good if you showed a bit of respect to some of the other posters in this thread. If you couldn't be bothered reading the info - no worries - don't, but you really don't have to keep up a running commentary on what you think might be a bit too much for you to stomach.

Seems to me that this thread is not being moderated.

I know I said I don't respond to D/head comments but I just can't help myself here. Hahahahahahaah!

Originally Posted by BobL

Folks are entitled to play with any available data as much as they like so don't let this put you off

Totally agree - play with the available data to your heart's content, but don't kid yourself that doing so will make a single shred of difference. You have nothing like the complete dataset to play with.

I think its time everyone took a deep breath of fresh air and get back to their work benches and do something constructive, this thread is starting to become as toxic as the virus

Originally Posted by doug3030

Went to our local Coles this afternoon. Jools had a trolley, I went off and grabbed a couple of items and returned to her, we pulled over to the side of the aisle while I put the few items in the trolley. I saw a woman walking quickly down the aisle towards us and I said to Jools, "She isn't going to go through there surely." but she pushed in through the small gap, making forceful contact with me on the way through.

Well we kept our cool and spoke to her and she said something about us being in her way so F#c% us, she had to get through. Jools said something about social distancing being important. Then she spat in Jools's face.

Long story short, I followed her to her car, police were called, I gave them her rego

.....

Coles security tapes, now mostly hi-res, should have all the evidence that you need.

The local Coles manager may be concerned that a serious assault occured on his premises, that the police did nothing, and there is a risk that the perpetrator may return and assault other customers or his staff.

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

Coles security tapes, now mostly hi-res, should have all the evidence that you need.

The local Coles manager may be concerned that a serious assault occured on his premises, that the police did nothing, and there is a risk that the perpetrator may return and assault other customers or his staff.

Thanks - I have been considering going there tomorrow to see what they have. I have to wonder if it would be a total waste of time since the police were so unenthusistic about doing anything. I have a strong suspicion from my interaction with the two police there today that they know who she is and she is a protected species of some kind.

Originally Posted by BobL

Maybe at the corner of SA/NT/WA
Interestingly the WA border does a bit (100m) of a dog leg there - I've never noticed it before.
ON the WA border its called Ngaanyatjarra-Giles.
Theres even cupel fo buildings there!

you've been studying Google maps?



BTW, the location is officially known as "Surveyor General's Corner"

Originally Posted by doug3030

Went to our local Coles this afternoon. Jools had a trolley, I went off and grabbed a couple of items and returned to her, we pulled over to the side of the aisle while I put the few items in the trolley. I saw a woman walking quickly down the aisle towards us and I said to Jools, "She isn't going to go through there surely." but she pushed in through the small gap, making forceful contact with me on the way through.

Well we kept our cool and spoke to her and she said something about us being in her way so F#c% us, she had to get through. Jools said something about social distancing being important. Then she spat in Jools's face.

Long story short, I followed her to her car, police were called, I gave them her rego number over the phone. Police were dispatched to talk to us. They had phoned this woman up before they even spoke to us and were told we were overreacting to a little accidental bump.

Police told us we were being unreasonable, no chargeable offence had occurred and they would take no action. She must have been the mother of one of them or something.

So even with a Government mandate unless they start charging people and telling the public that things like this will be taken seriously there is no hope of any sort of meaningful compliance.

How wide are the isles in your local Coles? In my local Coles, the isles are wide enough for two trolleys plus a bit. If they weren't that wide, there's no way of maintaining two-way traffic in the isle.
So were you and Jules really "pulled over to the side" of the isle -- which would leave more than enough room for the woman to pass you both -- or were you at least partially blocking the isle?

Not that spitting in anyone's face is acceptable, it clearly is assault. However, I doubt if Coles' store manager will let you get the evidence you need from their security tapes. At a minimum you would probably need the police with you when you ask.


I can see the Police thinking ...
the isles in Coles are wide enough for two trolleys to pass.
you and Jools had a trolley and the woman did not.
the woman could easily pass you but did not.
ergo "you and Jools" were "blocking" the isle with your trolley and bodies -- evidence the "woman" had to "make forceful contact" to get past you both.

Given the above, I can also see why the Police declined to take action -- apart from the "she spat on me", "no I didn't" arguement -- you were both equally at fault.
I think the police response is described as "discretion"

Originally Posted by NeilS

The time difference between North America, Europe and here partly explains why the data appears to lag at times. It depends in part on when the staff behind the different sites are awake and updating their data and when the official figures are released country by country around the world time zones.

If anyone would like to wade into the background modelling and assumptions, see the attached.

Attached Files

• COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf (1.19 MB, 3 views)

Thank you Neil and a special shout out to Bill and Melinda Gates and their foundation.

some comments on the attached file
the modelling might only be a week old, but it is now well out of date -- no one should be overly surprised about that this early in the pandemic.

the range of expected cases and number of deaths is very large -- 95% confidence that the estimated number of beds required ranges from a low of 7,977 (nothing to worry about) to a high of 251,059 (that's well beyond "holly f**king s**t"). BTW, that's a 31 times difference in expected bed demand.

ICU bed demand is similarly spread out -- 95% confidence that the peak ICU bed demand ranges from the easily managed 2,432 through to 57,955. BTW, that's around a 23 times difference in demand for ICU beds.

Peak ventilator use is not as spread out -- 95% confidence that the expected range is 9,767 to 39,674. That's only a factor of about 4.



Major caveat
No one at this stage has a handle on how many people have been exposed to the virus that causes the Covid-19 decease.
It will take post outbreak blood serum testing to get a handle on the approximate number of people exposed to the virus.

Originally Posted by ian

Given the above, I can also see why the Police declined to take action

Ian, you were not there. You have no idea about the actual particulars of the incident and layout of the store and your speculation is well wide of the mark.

Don't bother asking me to elaborate because I am not going to waste the time and effort to explaining it to someone who has absolutely no ability to influence the outcome in any way. End of story. Find someone else to entertain you.

Stir crazy old men
Isolation forum frustration relief

research ahh yes research, proves everything.
Some years ago one of the Adelaide Unis proved that supermarket/deli meat pies were the most nutritional thing you could possibly eat.....simply by crunching the information they had and using what they wanted to their advantage...some drongos actually believed it and stocked up on meat pies.

Originally Posted by Tonyz

research ahh yes research, proves everything.
Some years ago one of the Adelaide Unis proved that supermarket/deli meat pies were the most nutritional thing you could possibly eat.....simply by crunching the information they had and using what they wanted to their advantage...some drongos actually believed it and stocked up on meat pies.

April Fools Day prank gone wrong I'm guessing?

Originally Posted by Tonyz

Some years ago one of the Adelaide Unis proved that supermarket/deli meat pies were the most nutritional thing you could possibly eat.....simply by crunching the information they had and using what they wanted to their advantage...some drongos actually believed it and stocked up on meat pies.

Not forgetting the study that was done into the effects of drinking 'diet' drinks. The research team used company cafeterias to gather their data where they noted that only overweight people were consuming diet drinks.

Ergo diet drinks make you fat!