Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Originally Posted by woodPixel

Well, if you fancy a bit of time on the tools, why not build your very own ventilator!

MIT Team Shares New $500 Emergency Ventilator Design with the Public

Nah. I'm waiting for the Matthias Wandel Woodgears version to come out. I just sent him an email requesting it.

Originally Posted by BobL

Nope - disagree, at least some of the people dying right now of COVID19 will be in people who were going to die this year anyway...

Don't forget that about 8% of Aussie blokes in the 60 - 69 age range will die this year irrespective of COVID19.

Yes, but if I was one of those who was going to die in Dec of this year anyway I sure would appreciate those extra eight months and not die in April struggling for breath hooked up to a ventilator. Yes, I know either way that I would be a single stat for 2020, but those extra eight months would be nice!

However, ignoring those who are whinging about getting a few extra months of life, we can expect an increased death toll from from other heath conditions during the peak period of the CV-19 epidemic because of the stress on the health care system. So that 8% of 60-69yr old blokes is likely to be higher this year from non-CV-19 causes if we don't put a lid on the rate of CV-19 transmission. Others have probably already made that point.

As for the 70-79yr olds, I don't want to know about that!

Originally Posted by NeilS

Yes, but if I was one of those who was going to die in Dec of this year anyway I sure would appreciate those extra eight months and not die in April struggling for breath hooked up to a ventilator.

Jeez, Neil, be careful what you wish for!

Originally Posted by NeilS

"One thing is clear, a decision taken today on addressing the public health crisis will be exponentially more valuable as the exact same decision taken in a week – or even a day. This is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for large scale, new and unconventional fiscal and monetary policies."

I do hope you are right, but it's a long way yet from running its course.

And, as others have pointed out, the Covid-19 numbers will be on top of the usual morbidity load, like the 18,000 hospitalisation from the regular flu that we get here on average every winter. Source: Influenza Fast Facts >> Influenza Specialist Group (ISG)

The conundrum for decision makers is if we come in well below the projections then the measures taken to achieve that will be criticised as being too draconian, but more lives will be saved. However, if in retrospect they chose inadequate measures they will have had unnecessary deaths on their watch and the electorate will judge them accordingly. Watch Italy and Spain. But, nobody is going to get it just right in such challenging circumstances, well not unless they get very lucky.

So, every good bit of luck to us here!

Well good luck in placing your faith in an accountant. I've worked with too many of them to fall into that trap.

And I'm going to fall into the trap of my many climate change industry fans here when I ask have you no regard for the financial wellbeing and future of your grandchildren and their grandchildren who may take decades to pay off the lavish cash splash currently being handed out by our socialist government that you approve of to preserve your selfish existence? You've already lived your three score years and ten, isn't it their turn?

Just kidding of course...

Originally Posted by woodPixel

Dude! Take a bit of time to breathe.

It was simply an obvious thought bubble that someone had.... it was obvious to me. The societies that traditionally favour mask wearing when they are sick as an act of social signalling are also those that have very low numbers.

It was just an interesting curiosity, not a scientific study!

Ok Sorry, have we stopped doing that at last? '
'
I sure hope we have.

I must have missed the email.

Today's spreadsheet attached. Coupla new columns with sort buttons added. (Cases and deaths 3 day gain)

Be careful of the red "SCREEN" button. It is customised for my screen to move it to the right, so if it is on a small screen it may go across the ditch.... (you can always just shut it down without saving it and reopen). The "Colours" button is just to colour the cells via a macro.



Italy and Spain are getting HAMMERED, even though the cases haven't increased by all that much. The death rate has climbed disproportionately to the cases. Perhaps that means that there is a lag between getting on top of the new infections and existing cases still dying.

France, UK, Turkey, Belgium not a whole lot better, but with less overall deaths.

Interestingly, only Turkey is even close to doing 2x cases per 3 days (82.8%), and Australia continues to do what I can only describe as "exceptionally well", with one day's worth of new cases for the 3 day period, and only 2 more deaths.


EDIT: replaced the spreadsheet with the next gen. I have decided to take the data at midnight GMT, which is 10am here until next Sunday when it will become 9am.
REMEMBER: DO NOT PRESS THE RED BUTTON!

Originally Posted by Tccp123

Well good luck in placing your faith in an accountant. I've worked with too many of them to fall into that trap.

And I'm going to fall into the trap of my many climate change industry fans here when I ask have you no regard for the financial wellbeing and future of your grandchildren and their grandchildren who may take decades to pay off the lavish cash splash currently being handed out by our socialist government that you approve of to preserve your selfish existence? You've already lived your three score years and ten, isn't it their turn?

Just kidding of course...

A response from Planet Earth: maybe you should have worked with Economists instead. Maybe you didn't know they are as similar to accountants as doctors are to physicists?

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

A response from Planet Earth: maybe you should have worked with Economists instead. Maybe you didn't know they are as similar to accountants as doctors are to physicists?

???

Originally Posted by NeilS

Yes, but if I was one of those who was going to die in Dec of this year anyway I sure would appreciate those extra eight months and not die in April struggling for breath hooked up to a ventilator. Yes, I know either way that I would be a single stat for 2020, but those extra eight months would be nice!

Maybe and maybe not. When 93 YEAR MIL was struck down with congestive heart failure in May of 2018 and didn't pass away until March of 2019 having gone in and out of ICU 7 times until she put her foot down and said "I'm not going back there", I was fairly certain the wanted to depart long before then.

Originally Posted by NeilS

Really!

Respected economists like Chris Richardson are saying the reverse....

Originally Posted by Tccp123

Well good luck in placing your faith in an accountant. I've worked with too many of them to fall into that trap.

Originally Posted by Tccp123

???

Chris Richardson would decline to do your Tax Return for you.

Google might have to be your friend if you are still confused.

Call 'em whatever you like, they're all accountants...

One of the things that is prevalent through all of this is the number of statistics and numbers that are being thrown around both in relation to the virus itself, and the resulting economic response from various governments. One of the hardest things I find is to try and put everything into perspective with so many number and so many large numbers, but I have a way that I have personally found useful over the years that I thought I would share in order that it might help some get their own perspective on what is happening.

The basic premise is to convert numbers into seconds and then view them as time, I find it very useful. So here are a few conversions for you, starting with the smallest numbers and escalating from there, some of the numbers will be approximate and will change as this develops.

number of deaths 50,000 = 15 hrs 53 minutes
number of confirmed cases 1 million = 11.5 days
1 billion because its a round number = 31.7 years
world population 7.5 billion = 238 years
Australian stimulus package 320 billion = 10,147 years
US stimulus in US dollars 2 trillion = 63,419 years.

Make of those numbers what you will.

Cheers Andrew

Perth COVID19 hot spots
https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/~/media...region-map.jpg

6 confirmed cases in my suburb (2 look like they're are at Curtin uni housing)
10 in a cluster around my sons place - don't tell DIL
A bit of clustering along the edges of the Swan River (wealthier suburbs) and training north up along the coast (Pommyville? )
Perhaps a few less in the newer southern suburbs.

Originally Posted by Tccp123

Call 'em whatever you like, they're all accountants...

That's....very revealing.