Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

There has been a massive discussion on this in the professional and academic literature over the last 100+ years. The consensus seems to be that there is an investment cycle and that cycles last between 7 and 10 years. But it is impossible to predict when they start and when they end. Its "good" to be in equities (shares) on the rising market, and "good" to be in cash (bonds, bank deposits) in the troughs. But as you cannot predict the transition, by switching to cash after a trough has started then you are locking yourself out of the future rising market.

Just think about it; if you could reliably predict the timing of the transition, then you would very quickly be a billionaire!

From my experience nobody can pick the very top or the very bottom, well not consistently. Try catching a falling knife, if you get it wrong it goes badly wrong.

I did manage to sell out of tech stocks 2 weeks before the dot-com bubble burst in 2,000. I was heavily involved with the Internet things at the time so had some insights.

Pulled back while still above ASX 5,000 before the big drop in the GFC (that was a train wreck waiting to happen for all to see) and went back in hard starting in Dec 2008.

I had pulled back modestly well before the current downturn, not that I or anyone else could see the virus or its impact coming, but mainly because of the overvalued US market and uncertainty about what the Twit might do next, like start a war somewhere. Good move to get re-elected, but bad for everyone and everything else.

Have been currently buying back in since 23 March and leaving some powder dry for further falls, but that could go badly wrong.

But invariably I leave a bit on the table when I sell down before the peak and leave some on the floor buying back in late on the upswing. Selling down is the easier bit. Judging when to buy back in is the challenging bit. It's a mug's game; one wrong call and you will be joining the queue at Centrelink.

And, you can at best only do a bit better than staying invested at whatever you decide is your risk level, which is what sensible people do.

Excellent advice there (in my unqualified opinion) from your adviser Lappa in regards to taking advantage of the temporary reduced minimum amount you are required to draw down on your super. If you can live on less, reduce your draw down to protect your Capital until it recovers. That should be easier while eating out is curtailed, interstate and overseas holidays are off, and the car is mostly parked in the garage.

Note: If it is not already bleeding obvious, I have no qualifications or certification to give anyone any financial or investment advice. I recommend that everyone get independent professional advice before making any financial decisions. I have found the free and expert financial advisers from my Industry SuperFund fund have been excellent, that is in my unqualified opinion.

Anyway, I'm getting a bit off topic here.

Originally Posted by BobL

...
If anyone can't get their grocery shopping done in under that time then they're either seriously dawdling in the aisles or going to the wrong supermarket.

...

I also agree, Bob, but the GP was specifically talking about the masking needs of his medical practice. Standards presumably would need to be a little higher than a shopping expedition and they would need protection all day.

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

I also agree, Bob, but the GP was specifically talking about the masking needs of his medical practice. Standards presumably would need to be a little higher than a shopping expedition and they would need protection all day.

Agree - I was specifically referring to the average non-medical user not needing the same standard of protection of a medical professional.

Originally Posted by BobL

The US is desperate,even some hospitals in the US are now accepting home made masks

Childrens hospital of Philadelphia.
Making Homemade Face Masks | Children's Hospital of Philadelphia

CDC expected to reverse position on home made masks
Homemade face masks and coronavirus: New CDC guidelines expected and everything to know - CNET

Minnesota Dept of HEALTH
https://www.health.state.mn.us/disea...p/masksalt.pdf

And that coming from a country that has been providing sanitising wipes in supermarkets for ages.

Originally Posted by NeilS

Selling down is the easier bit. Judging when to buy back in is the challenging bit. It's a mug's game; one wrong call and you will be joining the queue at Centrelink.

And, you can at best only do a bit better than staying invested at whatever you decide is your risk level, which is what sensible people do.

And, the advice from Choice...

"trying to get out of high risk investments at the peak and back in at the bottom is highly unpredictable and can leave you chasing your losses."

Originally Posted by BobL

I found a pair of undies that were not too stained and are suitable for a mask.
The beard coverage is excellent.

Attachment 470929

And suddenly the world changed.

Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.

Who would have thought it a couple of short weeks ago.

Jaysus. USA has added 6500 cases in the last 11 hours! On today's death rate of 2.7% just that will result in another 175 deaths in the coming weeks, just from that half day period.

As I posted before, the deaths are 2-3 weeks behind.

Originally Posted by doug3030

Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.

My sister said it could be genetic and reminded me that in his 60s dad would wear a pair of undies on his head and sing when he drank too much grappa. I don't drink (much) but recently took up having an espresso with grappa every other day - no sign of any singing though.

I've been a participant in the annual national (regular/seasonal) flu tracker program for a few years.

Flutracking.net | Tracking Influenza Across Australia and New Zealand

If you join you get a weekly email reminder/link to click on to answer half a dozen yes-no questions about flu like symptoms.
It takes about 30s each week to participate - very easy.

Normally this survey starts in mid April each year but this year because of COVID19 they started tracking earlier.
These are the results so far.
Screen Shot 2020-04-06 at 6.55.07 am.png
Its early days but it looks like flu like symptoms in the community are lower than usual and one might then ask why?
It's too early for the early release of the regular flu vaccine to have had an effect.
Perhaps it's due to people staying at home, washing their hands and participating in social distancing.
If this continues there will be fewer people getting (and dying from) the regular flu so maybe the relatively few people (so far) dying from COVID will be compensated for by fewer regular flu victims?

Flu tracker also shows where various symptoms are located around AUS. This is the cough and fever data.
the data is by post code and the map on the Flu Tracker website can be zoomed in on see finer detail.
Looks like North Island NZ is getting knocked around a bit.
Screen Shot 2020-04-06 at 6.57.53 am.jpg

BobL, this is EXACTLY what is needed for this bloody WuFlu.

EXACTLY.

If people could register, update with daily temp, pulse, breathe rate, O2 and blood pressure (I've you've a little machine)*

Perfect. Maybe it should be mandatory.... especially for those already tested positive.



* All of this stuff is so cheap now, everyone should have them really. Finger O2 and pulse meters are $20 on eBay.

Originally Posted by BobL

My sister said it could be genetic and reminded me that in his 60s dad would wear a pair of undies on his head and sing when he drank too much grappa. I don't drink (much) but recently took up having an espresso with grappa every other day - no sign of any singing though.

Call me old fashioned and out of touch with current societal trends if you like but I am still holding on to the belief that singing, even badly, would be more socially acceptable than wearing your undies on your head in public.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

BobL, this is EXACTLY what is needed for this bloody WuFlu.

EXACTLY.

If people could register, update with daily temp, pulse, breathe rate, O2 and blood pressure (I've you've a little machine)*
Perfect. Maybe it should be mandatory.... especially for those already tested positive.

* All of this stuff is so cheap now, everyone should have them really. Finger O2 and pulse meters are $20 on eBay.

Well sign up then and forward it around to others. Its fully sanctioned by NSW Health.
They currently only have about 40k regular participants but unlike single COVID19 tests, participants report every week so it gives a better "in time" picture of what is going on.

Originally Posted by doug3030

Call me old fashioned and out of touch with current societal trends if you like but I am still holding on to the belief that singing, even badly, would be more socially acceptable than wearing your undies on your head in public.

If all one did after a few too many drinks was wear undies on head and sing that wouldn't be so bad, well better than driving and beating someone up anyway.

Originally Posted by doug3030

And suddenly the world changed.

Not only is there no stigma attached to wearing your undies on your head in public any more, it is actually looked upon as being socially responsible.

If only we could persuade young females into this habit. But I guess there's not much facial protection from a G-string. Pete