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Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves
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15th April 2020, 10:29 PM #1531
You are right, JOT, but it is the best available data. Every country must and does under report cases, unless they do 100% testing, there are zero false negatives, zero false positives and zero infections between test date and publishing date. But the important issue is the gestalt of the charts, not the minutiae. Look at the chart profiles.
My view, based on a little manipulation of those bar charts is that NZ is about 5-6 days later then Aus, rather than 2 weeks.
finally, agree that it is a team result; Team Australasia has done a great job. Geography has helped, but the human effort was/is critical.
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15th April 2020, 10:36 PM #1532GOLD MEMBER
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The Tassie hotspot is clearly showing how quickly escalation can happen. And it's showing that the little shortcuts that some people think they are "safe" doing are actually big deals. Again, the problem we're trying to solve for is to not put everyone in hospitals lining up for ventilators at the same time. This certainly is not cherry picking; again, this is the example that nobody wants to follow.
You've watched the simplistic demonstration of an epidemic's spread yeah? YouTube Even if they're not representative of a population's actual behaviours, they do show how social distancing and restrictive transfer between populations can go a significant way to protecting us all.
How we exit from here is going to be interesting - and I don't claim to have any idea what will happen or when. In this regard I can only sit back and watch what the medical experts and the people who have much more information available to them than we do, guide us through. There's no way I'd expect that we'll get to the point where we could say we have eradicated it from Australian soil.
Just on mountain biking. The reason the rules should have to apply equally to this is that it's not dissimilar to not driving unnecessarily for holidays, there are additional safety factors that could put stress on hospital resources away from his "normal" area. And as we learn more about the virus, unlike walking along the footpath or riding along the edge of a road where there's room for you to take slightly different paths to everyone else, MTB tends to be single file with little wiggle room, so anything left behind from a previous rider becomes a hazard for you that you can't avoid (and probably didn't know you needed to)
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15th April 2020, 11:31 PM #1533
He even has the facial expression to go with it
the finger.jpg
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15th April 2020, 11:49 PM #1534
While visiting our local hospital, creatively named The Canberra Hospital, I saw last week a VAST pile of big HEPA like filters that had been obviously pulled out/replaced.
Must have been a thousand of them. Not some little toys, but the big ones like I saw you post once ages ago BobL, maybe 1/3rd of a sheet of MDF in size. Super thick, perhaps 15 or 20cm. Some were probably 50x50 and 30cm thick.
They look pristine. VERY nice! I was going to shanghai a few, then I remembered.... plague.
It seemed so fantastically wasteful (Mottainai). But I can understand why.
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15th April 2020, 11:51 PM #1535SENIOR MEMBER
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Graeme,
Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code doesn't generally mean the company goes out of business. It's the U.S. equivalent of administration, as we call it, which can mean liquidation but it can also mean that other debtors cannot sue to wind up the company when an administrator has been appointed. Assets are valued at depreciated cost or otherwise but not at their current earnings potential.
In Australia, the Ruby Princess has been a major story but it hardly caused a ripple in the international press according to my international correspondents. While the cruise companies might have been irresponsible to have accepted passengers after the pandemic was announced, the latter boarded of their own free will, including one of my sisters on the Costa Victoria and two old friends on the Greg Mortimer, I might add. It's hard to see any legal actions succeeding unless wilful negligence can be proven.
I had an interesting discussion with a mate yesterday about ports of convenience. The crews aboard get better wages, food and accommodation than they would have in their own countries. That's why they sign up. By our standards they're paid a pittance but they don't live here or anywhere in the first world. If it weren't for them, very few could afford a cruise. Compare the cost of the Broome-Darwin cruises with Australian crews versus what you get with Carnival or Royal Caribbean. Of course, the tax havens are another matter...
Time will tell,
mick
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16th April 2020, 12:02 AM #1536
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16th April 2020, 12:17 AM #1537
Poundy, spot on. Your other point were exactly correct, but I thought to comment on just these, as they twigged with a post-grad thing my daughter did last year.
It was a statistical analysis of TB in Algeria. All the reports were in French so I translated it for her.... so it was a lot of reading!
The Algerians problems in crushing TB, which is horrific in its social, economic and environmental impact, are the same as the points you raised.
Getting the genie back in the bottle requires cooperative society wide changes. People, cultures and essential rights need to be subserviated for the greater good. Tracking individuals, changing culture and habits, removing taboos, proper treatment, getting people to hospitals, all of these things were (are) a massive undertaking in a poor country like Algeria.
Treatment, and providing an EFFECTIVE vaccine, cost something like 43 cents. It stops it dead..... BUT the population harvested and continued to construe all sorts of myths about the treatment and recoveries that hamper efforts to this day.
Stupidities abound, like those treated are forever "tainted". Hiding those so diseased from a fear of ostracism. Anti-Government conspiracies. Corruption. Coverups. People questioning the veracity of the science (those who do so had/have ZERO education).
.... FOURTY THREE CENTS....
TCCP123, I keep reading your posts and it only keeps vividly bringing back every single argument for the reasons behind the failure of eradicating TB in Algeria. Many of the points you raise are the same as those who oppose treatments, for whatever reasons, that leave their country on its knees.
I don't think you get it.
Man, I think you really need to have a bloody good hard long think about the types of media you read and the messages you are adsorbing from them, because, frankly, they are misleading you. You are dangerously ill-informed and many of the postulates you put forward are so identical to the naysayers within the Algerian problem that its scary.
The Algerian culture faces a lot of hurdles, but they aren't stupid. They know where the problems lay and might I say, euphemistically, they are addressing them.
There may be a time, here in Australia, where such problems may need to be equally euphemistically addressed.
Please try and see this pandemic for the real danger it is.
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16th April 2020, 02:28 AM #1538
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16th April 2020, 03:16 AM #1539
the coronavirus is labelled "novel" because it is a "new" virus and no one in the community is immune to it.
Therefore it is not surprising that some people who previously tested negative to the virus are now testing positive to it.
Also, I understand that the tests being used to detect the virus have significant rates of "false positive" and "false negative" results. Ideally a Covid-19 test would be definitive, yes (>98% assurance) you have it, or no (<0.01% chance) you don't have the virus. My understanding is that the false positive and false negative results are greater than 15%.
What would be most worrying would be if a person who had previously been hospitalised because of the virus was readmitted after catching the virus a second or third time.regards from Alberta, Canada
ian
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16th April 2020, 03:59 AM #1540
Brett
your envisioned future is a very very dystopian one.
Prior to just now, almost 79% of the Australian workforce WAS engaged delivering services to other people. Scott from Marketing's "job keeper" initiative is really just a fudge to keep the official unemployment numbers somewhat under "control". In reality, almost everyone who worked in hospitality (deliberate past tense) is now unemployed. A few thousand will pick up jobs stacking shelves or changing adult nappies but the vast majority (>1,000,000) have suddenly appeared queuing outside Centrelink waiting (fruitlessly?) to be seen and get their details sorted.
There is a very good reason that the "New Start" below poverty level payments were doubled and became "Job seeker" ones. (Talk about massaging the optics !!)
Without "Job keeper" I believe we would be looking at an unemployment rate >30%. That's well into Great Depression territory.
Locally -- and admittedly the Bow Valley is a highly tourist dependent economy -- unemployment jumped to around 85% in less than a week.
With "nearly everyone" working from home long term Turnbull's internet "solution" will need to be replaced sooner than pronto. Internet traffic maps the population's spatial distribution so if everyone is working from home -- need I say more?
It will take a very very long time for the service industry to come back if it can ever come back.regards from Alberta, Canada
ian
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16th April 2020, 04:06 AM #1541
well for starters, maintain the existing quarantine restrictions on all inbound passengers.
i.e.
you go on a cruise -- 14 days in quarantine in isolation at the dock when you get back.
you fly into Australia from O/S -- 14 days in quarantine isolation at the airport when you arrive.
Currently, I'm in Canada on an extended visitor's visa. If it's 14 days mandatory quarantine -- do not pass GO, do not collect $200 -- when I get back what should I do?
Uh??regards from Alberta, Canada
ian
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16th April 2020, 04:32 AM #1542
some edits for your unfortunately that situation is a direct consequence of the US constitution.
State governors (or in some instances State legislators) get to determine what should happen within their own state. The US President might be the Commander in Chief, but he (or she) has no control over what a State Governor does.
I may have mentioned this previously but the US System of Government is deliberately designed to be particularly weak -- the founding fathers' were obsessed with protecting the original 13 colonies from control by a future "tyrannical government" so deliberately set up non-democratic system where each state got to select who could vote for President -- aka the electoral college -- and other systems including that even the US military has to be specifically reapproved by Congress every TWO years.
same here in Alberta. Schools are closed till next academic year (first Tuesday in September) and all uni entrance exams (called diplomas) are cancelled.
Kids are all working from home.regards from Alberta, Canada
ian
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16th April 2020, 04:48 AM #1543
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16th April 2020, 06:05 AM #1544
Derek
That is so sad for your friend and terribly upsetting for your friend's family and loved ones.
As I look out the window here in southern Alberta, it's snowing lightly -- there was about 2" overnight -- and we are in an effective, but not rigidly enforced, lock down.
Covid-19 is spreading (not as yet rampantly) through the nursing homes in Calgary. In terms of number of confirmed cases, Alberta has completed almost 83,000 tests and detected around 1870 cases, 2/3rds of which are in the Calgary health zone.
All the schools, libraries, gyms, places of worship, restaurants, etc have been closed for 4 weeks now with the virus peak not expected till early May. (Will is finishing his HSC equivalent via home study.)
The stores that are still open are open for on-line or phone orders only. All deliveries are "touch free".
Currently there are no travel restrictions, but with nothing open why would you bother?
And I can't get my hair cut till the "public gathering" restrictions are lifted.
As I mentioned in another post, Banff is effectively a ghost town -- for a town that attracts >3.5 million visitors each summer (May to September) seeing no one on the street when we were there earlier in the week was confronting.
All the clothing stores are closed, and the Chateau at Lake Louise closed three weeks ago. About the only places open in Banff are the two supermarkets. Apart from purchasing fuel, there is no stopping between the Banff Park gates and Golden. I'm not even sure you can still buy fuel in the Lake Louise village. BTW, Canmore to Golden is over 160 km and Calgary to Golden is more like 260 km.
Canmore the is not as bad, but official unemployment in the Bow Valley (Canmore through to Lake Louise) is now about 85% of the entire pre-pandemic workforce -- and that number includes those laid off by the local councils.regards from Alberta, Canada
ian
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16th April 2020, 10:47 AM #1545.
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Finally someone credible is talking about ventilation.
Good ventilation lowers riskTo mitigate the risk of catching the virus through the air, there are a few extra precautions. Good ventilation for enclosed spaces reduces the chances of the virus hanging around in the air, said Professor Morawska, who is director of QUT's International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health."We don't have quantitative data about this and, of course, every environment is different," she said.
"But what I do if I go to any place, I look around. How many people are there? How, according to my judgement, is the place ventilated?
"If I see that potentially it's not ventilated places, the risk is high, I don't go there."
Can coronavirus be spread via the air, and how do I protect myself? - Health - ABC News
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