But Willow's fine, and that is what's important. All good.
But, seriously, Bob, with all the bars, restaurants and massage parlours closed, what else could you spend your $$$$'s on?
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Tools ? But SWMBO’s horse had a vet visit yesterday for orthotic shoes as it’s feet have literally gone pear shaped!
Worldometer has just updated its graph on new cases in Italy by adding yesterday's new cases. The escallation has not resumed; good news so far.
Attachment 470491
The hope must, of course, be that the graph for Italy follows the general shape of the graph for China. It has had an exponential growth shape like China; let us hope that it now follows a comparable decay curve. My guestimate is that Italy is now poised near the apex of their curve, comparable to the position indicated by the red arrow on China's curve.
Attachment 470493
[Source: World Health Organisation: Report of the China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019.]
Looks positive but the Italian Authorities are still concerned the general population will slacken off their vigilance as they will need to keep this up for some time. This is the time that's the hardest to cope with as coming off the brake too early could easily result in a rebound. The will also be a subsequent waves to contend with.
The Italians imposed a full lock down in their most affected regions some 4 weeks ago when they about 1/4 of the cases and the same number of deaths Australia has now. The Italian data suggests it takes 4 weeks to see a significant change in the curve so we should have been at full lock down at least one week ago.
It's interesting to speculate/compare the Chinese with Italian situations as the Regional populations are about the same size.
- Chinese experience was relatively blind, Italians had some hindsight evidence of that might happen from Chinese
- Chinese population are (or are made) more compliant, Italians will cut more corners
- Chinese acted faster and more decisively than Italian? ie hard lockdown, forceable quarantine, rapidly put up large quarantine hotels/jails
- Italians probably had superior medical facilities and staff but simply not enough to cope with the larger numbers of ICU cases.
There was an infectious diseases person on the ABC last night said that even very poor African countries were able to beat Ebola with minimal tech by rapid quarantining of travellers and using social distancing and hygiene. The general population quickly realised they had no expensive tech fix available and (unlike some local ning-nongs who are not complying with basic quarantining) took successful ownership of the other factors seriously and immediately. For next time we will need to find a much more efficient way of handling travellers returning or moving en masse thru borders. Given what eventually has happened the financial investment would seem like peanuts.
With the current movement restrictions and panic buying still leaving empty shelves, this thread may be of some help to some folk:
How to make your vege last MUCH longer in th fridge
I'm not sure if this research Data shows coronavirus can only be controlled if 8 out of 10 Australians stay home - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) has already been posted in this or a similar thread
https://www.abc.net.au/cm/lb/1208623...ponse-data.png
As of 26 March, Australia is sitting at >2800 cases of coronavirus, so either physical distancing is less than 70% compliance, or was begun too late in the outbreak.
Not taht it makes much difference either way.
Just watching Melatonia bragging about how well everything is going, and the great G20 meeting. Looking forward journalists' questions to him on having now the world's highest number of cases at 81,000+
Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Now Has More Known Cases Than Any Other Country - The New York Times
Our old mate Kevin Dudd has chimed in this morning regarding the serious explosion in cases in Indonesia, tweeting “this has grave concern for the international security of both Jakarta and Canberra. It will require solidarity and deeply skilled diplomacy ahead”.
I guess he’s looking for a job.
latest estimates are that more than half of the most populous nation per square km on earth are infected, about 150 million people.
I'll be honest ian, that fact that our economy is currently being thrown under a bus because a computer model tells us we have to isolate, is nothing short of alarming.
Coronavirus exposes the problems and pitfalls of modelling | Science | The Guardian
Have a look at the following;Quote:
British statistician George Box: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
Coronavirus data reveals how COVID-19 is spreading in Australia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Attachment 470549
Virtually all of the issues that we currently face are a direct result of people STILL arriving here from overseas. When that finally stops we will see a decrease in the numbers. Undoubtedly at this point the gubment will jump up and down claiming it was their management of the situation that created the curve flattening, when in reality it was their lack of leadership that created this whole mess to start with.
It is certain that a significant portion of the country will experience the full brunt of this virus......but it's still too early....because it's not cold enough. And we should not be throwing the whole economy under a bus. This is why people in North Queensland want to isolate themselves, not really from the virus....more really the crap leadership and economy trashing.
The graph that is more worrying for NSW is this one
Attachment 470550
It showing that that the number of new infections with unknown sources is rapidly rising in comparison to other causes. According to the press today that is due to people not heeding the current warnings and not practicing isolating and distancing.
Virtually all of the issues that we currently face are a direct result of people STILL arriving here from overseas. When that finally stops we will see a decrease in the numbers. Undoubtedly at this point the gubment will jump up and down claiming it was their management of the situation that created the curve flattening, when in reality it was their lack of leadership that created this whole mess.
This is 100% correct, and I note that all the expatriate owners of bars hotels and resorts over there are now whining that their income has gone and they want to come home. This is becoming a cyclic thing, but this time they are bringing a viral death sentence with them, for lots of us.
Indonesia has already put it’s hand out for financial help during this crisis ( which they were denying and saying the power of prayer will stop it) as late as last weekend. I wonder how much the Australian government will send them? Maybe they can sell a few of those Apache attack helicopters they bought with the money we sent them last time?