Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Looks like there has been some error in the editing of the quoting codes.

Just to make it clear, I did not post anything about young females and g-strings, despite what the quotes are displaying in a couple of posts above.

Maybe a moderator might be able to fix the codes.

Originally Posted by doug3030

Just to make it clear, I did not post anything about young females and g-strings, despite what the quotes are displaying in a couple of posts above.

Maybe a moderator might be able to fix the codes.

Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.

Originally Posted by NeilS

Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result and unintentionally his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.

Thanks Neil and apologies Doug

I did not intentionally change anything. The skill required to multi quote has eluded me for the sixteen years I have contributed to the Forum with the one exception that about a week ago I did successfully do a multi quote, but I still don't know how I did it and have not be able to replicate the task again.

So in short I just hit "reply with quote" and I have absolutely no idea how the two posts became one. Just to state my position on the undies for mask thingy, from my very sheltered perspective, I think they probably look a lot better worn as originally intended: But not on everyone.

Regards
Paul

My apologies Doug. I haven't quite got the hang of quoting the post I'm answering. And, for the benefit of other members and/or moderators, Doug did NOT mention young ladies or G-strings. I thought it might raise a smile and apologise for any offence anyone may have experienced. Pete

Originally Posted by NeilS

Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.

Thanks Neil,

I understand how the quote codes work. I fix them myself all the time on other forums where I have moderator privileges.

Originally Posted by Ned Kelly and his Gang

I understand how the quote codes work. I fix them myself all the time on other forums where I have moderator privileges.

Yes, Doug, basic quotes are relatively straight forward, it's those multi-quotes on this forum software that can get us all tripped up at times.

And, if we happen to have any bushrangers on the forums they can fiddle the codes if they have a mind to do so....

Originally Posted by NeilS

Originally Posted by doug3030

Originally Posted by NeilS

Most likely it was a case of Paul unintentionally hitting the multi-quote button and not quite sorting out the consequences of that (multi-quoting is a bit tricky).... So, Woodhutt's start of quote is there above the quote box, but no end of quote, and as a result his quote appears to be attributed to you, Doug.

Thanks Neil,

I understand how the quote codes work. I fix them myself all the time on other forums where I have moderator privileges.

Yes, Doug, basic quotes are relatively straight forward, it's those multi-quotes on this forum software that can get us all tripped up at times.

And, if we happen to have any bushrangers on the forums they can fiddle the codes if they have a mind to do so....

And if you really want to you can go back and put the whole conversation into one post. Oh the fun I could have doing that all day.

OK, I'm back banging on about modelling.

Please tune out if this is not your thing.

The reported data that we are getting on the number of cases and deaths, etc, tells us what has happened and there is much value in that for us and our governments, and this will also be invaluable for those who manage future pandemics once all the data is in after this one. However, those managing the current crisis don't have the benefit of hindsight (other than from some lesser epidemics over the last few decades) so they are having to make many critical decisions based on the available modelling.

The deputy chief medical officer agreed last week to release the modelling that they are working on, but that has not happened. I suspect that there is disagreement in the inner circle with the timing on that.

On The Drum last Thursday (?) the/a chief modeller expressed the value of having the models that are being used open to the public. In his view, doing so improves compliance with restrictions. I detected a hint of frustration that this has not happened already. No conspiracy theory on this, just a sign that perhaps we have less than the most competent at the helm.

In contrast, NZ has been releasing and updating its modelling since 27 Feb.

COVID-19 Modelling reports | Ministry of Health NZ

Perhaps it is no coincidence that NZ is performing so well. They also learned a very big lesson during the 1918 flu pandemic.

I previously posted a link to some modelling on bed, ICU, ventilator and predicted deaths in the US. So far it has been tracking closely to the predictions. Here is the link again. The third graph shows total deaths. Note: Time-wise the US is behind us by about a day (and much more in other ways... ).

COVID-19

I think someone must have shown Donald Duck some projection curves and it seems that it won't be business as usual again by Easter.

There are of course many issues around modelling. Even the experts in the field admit that it has its flaws as quoted in the following briefing; Epidemic modelers are the first to admit their projections can be off. “All models are wrong, but some are useful”.

Modelling the Coronavirus Pandemic to Guide Policy decisions.

Imperfect as they are models are the best we have to guide our decision making in times like these, otherwise ideology or politicking will prevail with potentially disastrous consequences.

I look forward to finally seeing the modelling that is being used here in Australia.

Ok

You blokes totally lost me when you started talking "codes." I am but a simple man who doesn't use a mobile phone. This episode has ruined my self belief to the extent I will never ever quote a post for the rest of the day.

Under the circumstances, I am also no longer going ahead with my request to woodhutt for pictures. Having regard to my current luck it would surely get tacked on to a post from the Benevolent Dictator!

Regards
Paul

PS: At least one person in workplace gets me to test his programmes. His claim is that if they survive me, they are bulletproof.

Originally Posted by BobL

I've been a participant in the annual national (regular/seasonal) flu tracker program for a few years.

Flutracking.net | Tracking Influenza Across Australia and New Zealand

If you join you get a weekly email reminder/link to click on to answer half a dozen yes-no questions about flu like symptoms.
It takes about 30s each week to participate - very easy.

Normally this survey starts in mid April each year but this year because of COVID19 they started tracking earlier.
These are the results so far.
Attachment 471020
Its early days but it looks like flu like symptoms in the community are lower than usual and one might then ask why?
It's too early for the early release of the regular flu vaccine to have had an effect.
Perhaps it's due to people staying at home, washing their hands and participating in social distancing.
If this continues there will be fewer people getting (and dying from) the regular flu so maybe the relatively few people (so far) dying from COVID will be compensated for by fewer regular flu victims?

Flu tracker also shows where various symptoms are located around AUS. This is the cough and fever data.
the data is by post code and the map on the Flu Tracker website can be zoomed in on see finer detail.
Looks like North Island NZ is getting knocked around a bit.

Maybe the low number is because people are reluctant to admit they have a slight fever or cough incase they are accused of having Covid

Originally Posted by Lappa

Maybe the low number is because people are reluctant to admit they have a slight fever or cough incase they are accused of having Covid

Yeah - maybe - but I kinda think they might be balanced out by the excess of hypochondriacs that often participate in these self selective surveys .

SWMBO is on her next model of face mask that utilises pieces of the 14 "still in the boxes" Miele Hyclean vac bags we found at MILs during the big clean out.
The mask consists of a tight weave cotton envelope that holds a piece of the Hyclean bag. The claim on these bags is 99.9% of all fine dust - whatever that means (no particle sizes given) , and as I have the test gear I will be measuring this as soon as I get organised.

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

PS: At least one person in workplace gets me to test his programmes. His claim is that if they survive me, they are bulletproof.

Absolutely.

I've run teams and been a programming grunt for ages Some people, just some, are called "Tods".

Everything Tod does ends in wreckage and flames. They are highly valuable and often sought out and kept like pets

..... Touch Of Death.

Originally Posted by BobL

SWMBO is on her next model of face mask that utilises pieces of the 14 "still in the boxes" Miele Hyclean vac bags we found at MILs during the big clean out.
The mask consists of a tight weave cotton envelope that holds a piece of the Hyclean bag. The claim on these bags is 99.9% of all fine dust - whatever that means, and as I have the test gear I will be measuring this as soon as I get organised.

Ha! Funny you should mention this. I saw on some medical forum that is EXACTLY what they are doing.

I noted it as I've a few spare Miele Hyclean bags. The Vac itself is great, but the bags are very nice indeed. Cheap on eBay too.... the knockoffs are cheap, but the originals are cheap enough not to worry too much about the difference.

SWMBO asked a few weeks ago if they could be used for masks.

Funny how things come together! Keen to hear the results of your testing dude.

Originally Posted by NeilS

I look forward to finally seeing the modelling that is being used here in Australia.

We have now had the briefing, but without the modelling!

The slides used during the briefing weren't readable for one reason and another, so a copy is attached. It doesn't say much.

Supposedly the actual modeling will be released by the Doherty Institute later today.