Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I am still 24 years old and bullet proof.

I wish I was but alas!!

Originally Posted by NeilS

I previously posted a link to some modelling on bed, ICU, ventilator and predicted deaths in the US. So far it has been tracking closely to the predictions. Here is the link again. The third graph shows total deaths.

COVID-19

That modelling is still tracking quite closely with the actual data as it comes in showing early signs that they are starting to drop just very slightly below the projections.

The significance of looking at this for the US is that, unlike the situation here, they do have enough data now to verify the projection of about 80,000 deaths there. This will change as real data is added to their modelling.

In looking at the third graph remember that the US is behind us by about a day. eg as I write it is 9.30am on the 8th here and 8pm on the 7th in New York, so in this instance compare the projection for the 7th with the published data on places like Worldometer that update after midnight GMT+0.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

Life must have been lived fulsomely every day one received!*

* then again, there were the vigorous... efforts... of re-population required

Not wrong there, that ancestor had 14 children..... with a little help from three wives and one mistress!

And, even taking into account the fatalities among those children from the plague, etc., the number of his descendants could now be in the tens of millions. Re-population is never a problem, running out of planet capable of supporting them is. The current pandemic is just a temporary distraction.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

Me too!

Evan

I hope you are just bulletproof and are not referring to abuse by a movie mogul!

Regards
Paul

The pharma grade glycerol finally came today and I mixed up some IPA based hand sanitzer using the WHO IPA recipe. Hand feel seems good although it's quite a bit thinner than the usual hand gel stuff but it works very well in a spray bottle. Now we can have a bottle in the car, one by the front door, one in the kitchen, one in SWMBO's hand bag and a couple of spares.

Today's spreadsheet attached.

Points to note:

• Australian 3 day Cases increase was very small at 6.2%
• Australian 3 day death increase was once again 50%, but that is a bit skewed because of the low number.
• Australia is slightly trending down the Total Cases column, and IPM column
• Australia continues to remain very near the bottom of Deaths and Death Rate.
• Of the 2000+ death countries, Germany, UK, USA, Belgium had significant 3 day increases in Deaths of >40%, and France not far behind.
• USA 3 day new cases rate continues to fall (72%, 43%, 27%) so maybe they have peaked out somewhat.
• Same for Spain, Italy, France, but with better (lower) percentages than the USA

I have added a couple of things:

• When you sort a column the top cell will go green to indicate which sort it was.
• 4 columns K-N show the four overall positions for a country in each of the fields cases, death, death rate, IPM. This was really more about tracking Australia's position through the history of this spreadsheet.

Norman Swan's "Health Report" contains a discussion on face masks. It might be of interest to some of you. There are several topics broached in this segment, but the face mask discussion starts around the 8min mark if you wish to go straight there.

Coronavirus: face masks, sheep dip, clinical guidelines and CT scans - Health Report - ABC Radio National

In another broadcast (I think it was Norman Swan again) I heard that when Covid-19 decides to really latch onto a victim ( it is to my mind a latching process as the virus cannot live very long by itself and has to adhere to cells, which become the host) it develops into a second and much more severe phase. The talk, on Radio National, was sparked by the downturn in Boris Johnson's health. Looks like they were right to hospitalise him and the illness has gone far beyond the precautionary stage.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

• USA 3 day new cases rate continues to fall (72%, 43%, 27%) so maybe they have peaked out somewhat.

Except that the USA has added 10,500 cases and 600 deaths in the last 3 hours....

I don't want this to sound harsh or callous because the current British PM is just another human being (although over-privileged and under-smart)
BUT
him getting a bad case of C19 may make the rest of the UK, and indeed the rest of the world, take the situation somewhat more seriously than has been the case.

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

[/LIST]
Except that the USA has added 10,500 cases and 600 deaths in the last 3 hours....

Brett

Those figures are worrying enough in themselves. An escalating situation with a country whose attitude reflects various amendments and the fact it is a "free" country and they can't be told what to do exacerbates this considerably. I have heard this from an American and somebody who has just returned from the US (New York) and is back at our workplace after two weeks of enforced isolation.

However the more worrying factor is they have Dr. Donald Trump advising the populace how to self medicate, now that it is going to go on beyond Easter ( it would have been so nice if it was all done and dusted by Easter in time for the Bunny to visit) as it didn't go away by itself as he originally, and very confidently I might add, predicted it would.

Sorry. What's that you say? King Donald is not a doctor! Well. Who would have believed that!

Regards
Paul

Comeuppance - a word an American I knew used excessively 20 years ago.... seems so apt now.

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

However the more worrying factor is they have Dr. Donald Duck advising the populace how to self medicate

Let him screw his own country - they voted him in (albeit with a slim minority in the pop. vote). The more worrying thing for me is for people like Bob who may find it hard to get the meds they need because duckheads around the world listen to Dr. Duck. Furthermore Dr Duck has just procured 29mill doses from India, so that will surely create a world shortage, at least for a while. That comes on top of other meds that could be in short supply because of the supply chain and transportation problems from China and India.

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

....
However the more worrying factor is they have Dr. Donald Trump advising the populace how to self medicate, .....

What's the worry?

I am sure Dr Trump consulted with Dr Google.

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Furthermore Dr Duck has just procured 29mill doses from India, so that will surely create a world shortage, at least for a while. That comes on top of other meds that could be in short supply because of the supply chain and transportation problems from China and India.

Hmmm. I've seen a few reports on medrxiv that Hydro doesn't actually work for this beastie.

BobL may be in luck - The yanks will find capitalism prices their excess inventory harshly. That useless excess will flood the market at VERY reasonable prices (for the buyers thereof anyway!)

I'm more than a little surprised that any country is actually engaging with the USA. As they become more desperate, so will their acts of piracy, sabotage, acrimony and ... war.

On Saturday I asked my chemist for 3 packs of potassium iodide. Just In Case. He looked right at me for quite a time.....