Thread: Future of the Australian Electricity Market

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I see a back flip in political stance a blatant lie and thoroughly disgraceful.

Some things never change.

We will know that nuclear power is viable when Angus Taylor and Peter Dutton resign from parliament to make their fortune from the Dutton-Taylor Nuclear Company Limited. If it is so viable without subsidies there must be a great commercial opportunity.

Twiggy obviously lacks their vision.

I am running the risk here of embarking on a political trend (not allowed under the Forum rules) ...

You are safe, Paul. It is clearly a debate about economic and strategic policy, and an inference of psychiatry.

Mr Dutton has finally released his well considered nuclear plan with proposed sites in all mainland states. The state premiers, coincidentally all Labor, are all lining up to say "Not in my state".

I have said it before, and I will say it again, nuclear is clearly a federal issue so the only place that Mr Dutton can locate it is in Canberra. Jervis Bay is also a federal territory but I don't think the admirals would accept a nuclear plant.

Apparently, the only small modular nuclear reactors that have been built are in Russia or China - successful?, safe?, cost effective? - that it a national secret. One in America being built by a company called NuScale collapsed when its projected cost of producing electricity rose from US$55 to $83 per megawatthour. (About AU$133.60)
"... NuScale had been the flag-bearer of the technology, ...

In 2016, the project had an original target of selling power at $US55 a megawatt hour ($83/MWh).
Last year, NuScale conceded the costs had jumped to $US89/MWh, even with subsidies — though some analysts said they were likely to be far higher still. ..."

Federal politics live: Energy Minister Chris Bowen criticises Coalition nuclear plan'''s lack of costing, modelling - ABC News

If it costs $136.60 to produce, then you probably need to sell it for, say, $150 per mWh to make a reasonable profit and keep the shareholders happy - assuming no further cost increases. I plotted those two projected cost and sales prices against the AER's wholesale electricity prices for the last four years. A lot of potential red ink!

Electricity Prices.jpg

Not disputing your point but I thought this whole exercise was about saving the planet not saving your wallet.

Won’t all the alternatives including renewables be more expensive than our current fossil fuels?

I find it hard to believe how far Dutton is prepared to take this, in the face of massive evidence to the contrary. I've become used to pollies ignoring facts when it suits their agenda, but this is setting new records for crass stupidity.

I say again, this will be the end of him (and he won't be missed).

So exactly where is the power to cover "poor weather" going to come from? I have 26kW or so of PV, plus 20kWh of battery, which has consistently covered all my usage for the last 11 months, as well as exporting (limited!) enough to just about cover the daily/metering/standing charge. For most of the last two weeks however, I have only just managed to recharge the batteries every day. That's with actively managed usage, running appliances at the "least worst" times, heat pump hot water, room heating with a wood fire, and minimal cooking etc. after the sun has gone down. Trivial power exported during this period. It hasn't seemed very windy either, but that may be very local.

Scaling that up, the amount of renewables and storage required to cover such periods for the entire population would seem immense. The "driven by profit" motive for installations would seem questionable for either storage or generation capacity that will be used for only a few weeks of the year - unless they can make an entire year's profit in two weeks, it's not going to be too interesting to anyone.

So what is the plan here? How do we cover a string of days, or weeks, over a large area, with minimal wind or sunshine?

Originally Posted by Warb

So exactly where is the power to cover "poor weather" going to come from? I have 26kW or so of PV, plus 20kWh of battery, which has consistently covered all my usage for the last 11 months, as well as exporting (limited!) enough to just about cover the daily/metering/standing charge. For most of the last two weeks however, I have only just managed to recharge the batteries every day. That's with actively managed usage, running appliances at the "least worst" times, heat pump hot water, room heating with a wood fire, and minimal cooking etc. after the sun has gone down. Trivial power exported during this period. It hasn't seemed very windy either, but that may be very local.

Scaling that up, the amount of renewables and storage required to cover such periods for the entire population would seem immense. The "driven by profit" motive for installations would seem questionable for either storage or generation capacity that will be used for only a few weeks of the year - unless they can make an entire year's profit in two weeks, it's not going to be too interesting to anyone.

So what is the plan here? How do we cover a string of days, or weeks, over a large area, with minimal wind or sunshine?

That is the elephant in the room that everyone avoids. I ask this question constantly and it is met with silence so would love someone to fill me in with how this is all going to work with our current technology