Thread: Future of the Australian Electricity Market

I bought four of these bulbs recently and will buy more soon: meross Smart Wi-Fi LED Bulb, E27 Light Bulb, Multiple Colors, RGBCW, 810 Lumens, 60W Equivalent, Compatible with Alexa, Google Assistant and IFTTT, No Hub Required (2 Pieces) : Amazon.com.au: Lighting

They are fantastic fun!

In the lounge, kitchen and hall I've set up six programs - Full Bore, Daytime, Evening Pre, Cooking, Dining, Evening Post, Reading and Movie.

Each has been set to a light colour (from 100% white, to a nice yellow/orange, to rather dim). Its a widget on everyone's phone. Press the button and BOOP! it changes the pattern over about a second (its not an instant flash change!). At night, just before bed, I boop the button for "Full bore" and flip off the wall switch. It will act just like an ordinary bulb (9W, 60 watt equiv).

One can also set up other devices to interact with it, such as in-wall plugs, switches, thermometers, light sensors, etc, etc. It can go all rather mad and nerdy. I've stuck to very simple routines and tweaked them over a week.

I've found the colours imbue an absolutely lovely temperament into the house at these selected times. I don't use their colour feature, just the white to yellow/orange range for lighting. I'm sure if I should ever host a party then I will do something braver

Yes, they rely on the internet and a company cloud-based server to send-and-receive coms to.... which was a risk should the company vaporise, but I've begun helping out on two open-source projects which reverse engineered the protocols and server coms in order to make third party aps and solutions. It was easy

61IDy9AwxYL._AC_SL1500_.jpg

For years QLD has had the cheapest wholesale electricity. Apparently that is not now the case:

Qld warned of possible power outages (msn.com)

Regards
Paul

An update on the power crisis in QLD and NSW. No load shedding last night or this morning, but not out of the woods by a long shot. The following article shows the percentage of foreign ownership of the gas companies!! Holy smokes!

Chris Bowen faces calls to slug gas companies with windfall profits tax (thenewdaily.com.au)

Regards
Paul

Everything has a downside unfortunately Researchers Use Smart Light Bulbs to Infiltrate Networks - Security News (trendmicro.com)

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

. ... Lights, particularly LEDs, consume very little power, ...

My daughter works for a division of Schneider Electric that examines and recommends ways of saving on electricity bills for large companies. Bunnings is one of their clients. Last time I was in one of their two Toowoomba stores there was a large TV screen showing real time electricty they were generating both for that individual store and their network of stores as a whole. Clearly they, in an industrial context, are aware there are savings to be made: Indeed need to be made. Very interesting. I have noted that it is never very warm in their stores: A true wharehouse.

Regards
Paul

Go into any large retailer and they will be extremely brightly lit - Bunnings, Coles, Woolies, etc. The reason is simple; there is a measurable correlation between light levels and sales.

And a negative correlation, albeit in a narrow band, between temperature and sales - Marketing 101.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

... I bought four of these bulbs recently and will buy more soon: meross Smart Wi-Fi LED Bulb ...

You have got me worried, woody.

Remember the old cartoon about someone like me in the Apple Store and the sales assistant is saying "... From this point on, Sir, the smartphones are smarter than you."

Will I now fear the light globe display?

Originally Posted by Chris Parks

Everything has a downside unfortunately Researchers Use Smart Light Bulbs to Infiltrate Networks - Security News (trendmicro.com)

Originally Posted by GraemeCook

You have got me worried, woody.

Remember the old cartoon about someone like me in the Apple Store and the sales assistant is saying "... From this point on, Sir, the smartphones are smarter than you."

Will I now fear the light globe display?

Ah! Beat you to it!

I put on onto it own wifi network, installed a packet analyser and prodded the bulb into doing things it wasn't intended to do. Unfortunately I couldn't find any microphones or other Secret Squirrel stuff, but there is a flashable firmware. I hate closed source products (security via obscurity is not secure) and I wrote to the company asking that they release the source so we can have some proper fun with it. The company seems receptive to this (I've a few links to two github projects if interested)... Home Assistant

I like these bulbs due to their efficiency and longevity. Of course, at $10 each, they may cost more than a traditional bulb in total (incandescent + #kw/h over lifetime) but it makes me feel good that I'm saving a few watts.

Originally Posted by yvan

In his last post, Graeme mentioned the inelasticity of power demand because, in the longer term, domestic consumers are unlikely to change their power consumption in response to high energy prices. ...

Small steps like change all light bulbs to LED's, switch lights off in unoccupied rooms etc etc.

Any suggestions ?

Cheers,
Yvan

Paul is right; lighting does not use much power and heating uses heaps. Increase your thermostat by one degree and the increased electriity would have kept all lights running 24/7. In a domestic setting, by far the best thing you can do to save energy is by improving insulation; the world leaders are in northern europe - Germany, Scandinavia, etc. Part of the drive is called "passivhaus" and well worth reading about. To achieve those standards your probably need:

• R=10 insulation in ceilings,
• R=7 insulation in walls,
• R=5 insulation in floors,
• Double glazing on all windows,
• Triple glazing on those windows facing the pole,
• No air leaks.

Then you can heat a large house including domestic water for less than 15 kWh per square metre per year.

Compare that to an "average" Australian house that might have R=3 insulation in ceiling, and nothing else.

You are in Hobart; your cheapest options for heaing are:

1. Cheapest = wood heater, provided you chose an efficient model that is properly installed and maintained
2. Next Cheapest = heat pump,
3. Third cheapest; There is no third cheapest, all other options are expensive.

We installed gas heating about ten years ago, which almost made sense then, but is now very expensive.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

I bought four of these bulbs recently and will buy more soon: meross Smart Wi-Fi LED Bulb, E27 Light Bulb, Multiple Colors, RGBCW, 810 Lumens, 60W Equivalent, Compatible with Alexa, Google Assistant and IFTTT, No Hub Required (2 Pieces) : Amazon.com.au: Lighting

They are fantastic fun!

In the lounge, kitchen and hall I've set up six programs - Full Bore, Daytime, Evening Pre, Cooking, Dining, Evening Post, Reading and Movie.

Each has been set to a light colour (from 100% white, to a nice yellow/orange, to rather dim). Its a widget on everyone's phone. Press the button and BOOP! it changes the pattern over about a second (its not an instant flash change!). At night, just before bed, I boop the button for "Full bore" and flip off the wall switch. It will act just like an ordinary bulb (9W, 60 watt equiv).

One can also set up other devices to interact with it, such as in-wall plugs, switches, thermometers, light sensors, etc, etc. It can go all rather mad and nerdy. I've stuck to very simple routines and tweaked them over a week.

I've found the colours imbue an absolutely lovely temperament into the house at these selected times. I don't use their colour feature, just the white to yellow/orange range for lighting. I'm sure if I should ever host a party then I will do something braver

Yes, they rely on the internet and a company cloud-based server to send-and-receive coms to.... which was a risk should the company vaporise, but I've begun helping out on two open-source projects which reverse engineered the protocols and server coms in order to make third party aps and solutions. It was easy

61IDy9AwxYL._AC_SL1500_.jpg

I found the exact same globes (re-branded as Arlec) in our local bunnings in the electrical specials bin, they had HEAPS of them, down from $25 to $10. I've kitted out the whole house with them temporarily for just over $3 a globe. Also slightly brighter at 1050 lumens

Arlec 12W 1050lm RGB Colour Mode Grid Connect Smart LED B22 Globe - 3 Pack - Bunnings Australia

event the bunnings full price 3 packs works out ALOT cheaper then those amazon ones which are only a two pack.

just depends which giant company you wish you have your money, Amazon or Bunnings

The potential power shortage continues tonight and tomorrow:

Five states face power uncertainty as AEMO warns of maximum load interruptions (msn.com)

I did extract this comment:

"The cost of power has been rising so rapidly that AEMO stepped in to place a cap on the wholesale price of electricity in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.AEMO set the price cap for consumers at $300 a megawatt hour.
"As a consequence, available offers from generators reduced, contributing to a forecast supply shortfall," AEMO said yesterday."

My understanding is that the elevated average price ( around $600/MWhr) has been constant for a week and that has triggered AEMO to institute a cap of $300/MWhr. This is something of a double edged sword in that while it does limit the price, it also means some generators (primarily some of the less efficient gas generators) say we have no gas for sale at that price and this causes a shortage: No real surprise there: Be careful what you wish for.

However, and I don't really no how this is achieved, AEMO then waves a big stick and says "you have to generate." I would have thought that was an impasse. The fact is that last night there was no load shedding.

Regards
Paul

Tonight's 7pm Tasmanian ABC News: power shortages expected...

For the life of me I cannot figure out how there could be power shortages in Tasmania!
Dams haven't burst and there has been significant rain over the past few months to replenish them.

I am cynical enough to think that the power generated is fed into the national grid at very attractive prices thank you very much, creating a "shortage" in the state.

Energy prices have become a political issue. And, when prices are capped - another form of subsidy - in time they inevitably go back to what they should have been. It is when this happens that it will hit the fan.

I'm off me soap box...

Cheers
Yvan

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

The potential power shortage continues tonight and tomorrow:

Five states face power uncertainty as AEMO warns of maximum load interruptions (msn.com)

I did extract this comment:

"The cost of power has been rising so rapidly that AEMO stepped in to place a cap on the wholesale price of electricity in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.AEMO set the price cap for consumers at $300 a megawatt hour.
"As a consequence, available offers from generators reduced, contributing to a forecast supply shortfall," AEMO said yesterday."

My understanding is that the elevated average price ( around $600/MWhr) has been constant for a week and that has triggered AEMO to institute a cap of $300/MWhr. This is something of a double edged sword in that while it does limit the price, it also means some generators (primarily some of the less efficient gas generators) say we have no gas for sale at that price and this causes a shortage: No real surprise there: Be careful what you wish for.

Paul
Forgive my cynicism, but to me it looks like the AEMO may have been gamed by "persons yet to become known"

Attached is a snap shot from 20:40, June 14, 2022 for Tasmania.
You can clearly see the price spikes >$15,000/MWh over the past day or so.

Don't know about you, but a spot price above $15,000/MWh -- in a state that just opens a tap a bit wider to generate power -- suggests to me that some sort of gaming is occurring.
Perhaps, the Market participants have twigged that if they don't bid a price (to generate any power) over the next 5 minute period, the only price offered will apply to all the market participants.



AEMO Market snap shot Tas - 2040 Jun 14.jpg

Originally Posted by yvan

Tonight's 7pm Tasmanian ABC News: power shortages expected...

For the life of me I cannot figure out how there could be power shortages in Tasmania!
Dams haven't burst and there has been significant rain over the past few months to replenish them.

I am cynical enough to think that the power generated is fed into the national grid at very attractive prices thank you very much, creating a "shortage" in the state.

Yvan
As far as I know the capacity of the BassLink is a meagre 630 MW, around the same as half the demand trough in the chart I posted above.
What I don't understand is how such a relatively low capacity interconnecting cable can lead to potential power shortages in Tasmania.

Meanwhile in WA, us "Croods" are nice and warm in our well lit caves.
This arvo was nice and sunny so I left the coffee machine on and ran the clothes dryer for a good part of the afternoon in sympathy.

And plans have just been announced to cease state owned coal fired electrical production 7 years from now.

When the then Premier Alan Carpenter brought in the 15% minimum availability of WA extracted gas for WA domestic operations in 2005 he was called lots of names not the least of which was "socialist".
Suddenly he's looking very "market responsible" and even the former Liberal Premier, Colin Barnet, agrees it was a good move.
There's so few current opposition around no one was available for comment.
There was a poll run on Perth ABC radio on should WA Gas be share with you lot in the east but I didn't listen for long enough to hear the final outcome but the caller feedback was positive.
Shame about the distance.
I had to write this as we don't often get a chance