Thread: Future of the Australian Electricity Market

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Mick, do some research on "Dualit" brand. They were pretty good when I purchased mine in 2008.

I bought a Dualit "Classic" toaster in the UK in the early 1990's. It's the simplest design possible - a clockwork timer, hefty 1 or 2 slot selection switch and a manual lever to raise the toast. No electronics whatsoever. I believe they started making them in the 1950's, and their "Classic" model hasn't changed all that much. Maybe 5 years ago we upgraded to a 4 slot version of the same toaster because sometimes we needed, um, 4 slices of toast at a time. The old 2 slot machine got relegated to the workshop, but still worked. I have no knowledge of their other products, but if they follow the same philosophy as the "Classic" toaster, expect them to be basic but bombproof.

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

These days I read a lot of "Choice" articles, and then look for reviews on what they recommend, before purchasing. I am yet to be let down by this process in the last year or so.

Usefully, Choice also tend to show the country of manufacture for each model from a particular brand. Makes it easy to identify at what level in their product range German brands (for example) actually make the product in Germany. Likewise with cars, e.g. which Hondas still come out of Japan, vs. bodged together in the UK

One thing I don't agree with about Choice is the "buy" button for any given product. It diminishes their objectivity.

Of course, being a tight , I don't actually subscribe to Choice magazine. Our local library has it though, so I can go look at relevant Choice reviews there before considering any major appliance purchase. As you say, best to use this to generate a short list of products to consider, then go off and Google other reviews and compeittive pricing info.

I think I only ever got one bum steer from Choice some years ago; they recommended a particular kettle as being one of the quietest available due to some fancy feature it had like a double base rather than exposed element. We bought one - it was quiet for about 2 months, then transformed into the noisiest kettle I've ever experienced. Sounded like a 747 taking off when my partner put a brew on early in the morning before going off on shift work. Luckily the kettle burned down with the rest of the house in the bushfires (2020), and has been replaced with a simple, cheap, exposed element type (probably K-Mart) which works a treat and is as quiet as a mouse.

Originally Posted by Davich

Heheh, ol Crikey strikes again, nuke bad and over priced, solar good and cheap..............except when it is not, why did not Bernard Kean mention the Kogan Creek solar boost $76.2 million dollar flop that not only has been abandoned but has now been totally scrapped without producing a single watt?
The lies that are put forward about "renewables" is astounding, simple fact remains if there is no base load power on tap the entire grid falls over, better yet just shut down all coal fired power stations for a week and see what happens eh? Just to note though I have been totally off grid for over 10 plus years however that is my choice and which I have paid for out of my own pocket, have a look at the waffle in the link below, just another money grifting project for the gullible to soak up, just to note the report advises it cost $76.2M and was completed in March 2016...............no mention it was actually Abandoned and Scrapped.

Kogan Creek Solar Boost Project - Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA)

Snip from the page

Summary

The Kogan Creek Solar Boost Project set out to install a 44 megawatts of concentrating solar power (CSP) at CS Energy’s 750 megawatt coal-fired Kogan Creek Power Station.

Project innovation

The project intended to demonstrate the hybridisation of solar thermal and coal-fired power generation on a large scale, and provide key insights into the construction and operation of hybrid renewable/fossil thermal plants.
Benefit

Valuable insights gained during the project will be used to strengthen future renewable energy developments.
A bit more insight on this from the SMH no less.

'Fast-moving clouds': How CS Energy's Kogan Creek Solar Boost project failed (smh.com.au)

Davich

Thanks for the contribution. Kogan is a government owned station. The station at which I work, Millmerran (I mention this as a welcome newcomer to the thread i need to state my position), is privately owned. Millmerran looked at the same thing as Kogan Creek and decided not to go ahead as it was not economically viable. That was then. It may not be the case now. Renewables have made daytime power ridiculously cheap. The big issue, as you have said is power during the sunless and windless hours. The focus should be on storage and that aspect is still lamentably minimal.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by Warb

I often wonder whether journalists do themselves any favours by including statements such as "...the AFR or Dutton — both of whom like to whine about too much government spending —". To me, when you include comments like that you instantly remove any pretence of being impartial, which then calls into question any "factual" statements made. Obviously regular readers of whatever source produced the article will already know, and presumably agree with, any political or idealist leaning, but as a new reader I don't. If I read an article that comes across as well-researched, unbiased and factual I tend to pay far more attention to it than to one that includes personal attacks and derogatory names, or in any other way seems obviously "motivated" towards one side or the other.

It also fascinates me how many of these articles focus on the history of nuclear generators taking a long time to build and going massively over budget. It's not that the statement is inherently untrue, it's simply that I'm not sure there has ever been a government project that has been completed on-time or on-budget......

Warb

It would be preferable to do without the political comment, but if you have been attacked by certain political elements as often as Crikey, have perhaps you would be unable to resist a dig. For real unmitigated bias have a look at Sky and particularly their headlines.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by Mr Brush

Look, Australia has basically lost the ability to complete large civil engineering projects to a good quality, on time, and on budget. We can't do it anymore. I just read that the costs of Snowy 2.0 (already years behind schedule) are now expected to DOUBLE. I've had some very minor peripheral involvement on Snowy 2.0 as a consultant (trying to fix something they've already stuffed up), but stopped doing work for them when the scale of their incompetence became obvious. Good $$$ to be made, but I just don't want them as a client ! Nucular?? (sic) - you have to be joking !!

Mr.B

I have to restrain myself when talking about Snowy 2. Over talked up (not as much pumped Hydro as there should be), over time and over budget. Their drilling machine has been stuck in the tunnel for several months now.

Regards
Paul

Well, it's much worse than has been reported in the press - the public are only hearing about the large-scale stuff ups. The ordinary, everyday stuff ups don't get a mention. Having done some work up their as a contractor, I certainly don't want anything more to do with the project in future.

Initial cost was estimated at $2 billion. The latest estimate is $12 billion.....clearly even a small child could do a better job of costing a project. They've hardly started on the tunnel bores, thanks to a huge hole that suddenly appeared in a paddock with a tunnel boring machine at the bottom of it, and any government with any fiscal nouse (and a spine) would scrap the project entirely. If the economics barely stood scrutiny with the original budget and timescale, they certainly don't now.

Originally Posted by Mr Brush

If the economics barely stood scrutiny with the original budget and timescale, they certainly don't now.

This leads me to another thought. I have, in previous posts, mentioned the problems that are caused by "climate mitigation" measures being driven by a desire for corporate profit rather than any real wish to fix the problem. Given, as has also been mentioned, that corporate profit as a driver inherently favours the short term, high return, "easy" solutions and precludes any long term, low payback, high-cost projects (as evidenced by the mass of wind and solar farms that are quick, cheap and easy to install but don't address the weather-independent base load problem), will "we" ever grasp the nettle and address that base load issue? Or will we simply hope that someone, sooner or later (and before it's "too late") will devise an approach that will both genuinely work and also meet the requirements for profit?

In the past, western civilization and probably most others have always done things for profit. Whether personal profit, or profit of the country/kingdom/empire, those explorers, engineers and so forth were driven and funded by the desire to profit. I guess the only difference now, if we believe the current predictions*, is that there are significant negative consequences for failure to act.

*Although in the past perhaps the motivation was similar, revolving around what God(s) might do if the population didn't behave appropriately!

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Davich

Thanks for the contribution. Kogan is a government owned station. The station at which I work, Millmerran (I mention this as a welcome newcomer to the thread i need to state my position), is privately owned. Millmerran looked at the same thing as Kogan Creek and decided not to go ahead as it was not economically viable. That was then. It may not be the case now. Renewables have made daytime power ridiculously cheap. The big issue, as you have said is power during the sunless and windless hours. The focus should be on storage and that aspect is still lamentably minimal.

Regards
Paul

Hi Paul, thanks for the welcome, you are correct in that Kogan is government owned and then you would also know that there was supposed to be a Kogan 2 to boost the capacity out to 1500MW but that is highly unlikely to happen in this current climate (pardon the pun!).
Whilst daytime renewables are cheap the only reason for that is that we have shipped our cheap energy (coal) off to China so that we can offshore the "dirty" manufacturing to a country that only gives lip service to human rights and pollution so that we can have cheap goods.
In a past life I went over to China on 2 business deals of which one was paid for by the Australian government to clean up a refinerys pollution that was so bad it could be seen from space.
The winning contractor (ex father in law) stated to me that once commissioned the water treatment plant that he designed and built and was fully paid for by the Australian taxpayer that the Chinese would pull the contract for the 7 other plants that were slated to be built, copy his and then build their own..............and that is exactly what happened.
With the deal that I had going on I had already paid the money so had to go through the process, however after seeing the abysmal treatment of the workers and the conditions they were forced to work under plus how polluted the whole area was I decided then and there to limit my dealings with the Chinese as much as possible even though I ended up losing a lucrative deal.
You are dead right in that the problem is storage of electricity which is why the current base load need to be not only retained but should have more capacity to bring down pricing until we have a viable means of storing power efficiently but with the current dogma this will not happen.

Dave

Originally Posted by Davich

Hi Paul, thanks for the welcome, you are correct in that Kogan is government owned and then you would also know that there was supposed to be a Kogan 2 to boost the capacity out to 1500MW but that is highly unlikely to happen in this current climate (pardon the pun!).
Whilst daytime renewables are cheap the only reason for that is that we have shipped our cheap energy (coal) off to China so that we can offshore the "dirty" manufacturing to a country that only gives lip service to human rights and pollution so that we can have cheap goods.
In a past life I went over to China on 2 business deals of which one was paid for by the Australian government to clean up a refineries pollution that was so bad it could be seen from space.
The winning contractor (ex father in law) stated to me that once commissioned the water treatment plant that he designed and built and was fully paid for by the Australian taxpayer that the Chinese would pull the contract for the 7 other plants that were slated to be built, copy his and then build their own..............and that is exactly what happened.
With the deal that I had going on I had already paid the money so had to go through the process, however after seeing the abysmal treatment of the workers and the conditions they were forced to work under plus how polluted the whole area was I decided then and there to limit my dealings with the Chinese as much as possible even though I ended up losing a lucrative deal.
You are dead right in that the problem is storage of electricity which is why the current base load need to be not only retained but should have more capacity to bring down pricing until we have a viable means of storing power efficiently but with the current dogma this will not happen.

Dave

Dave

Kogan Creek was the last thermal power station to be commissioned in Australia and Millmerran was the second last. Kogan has the largest single unit in Australia at 740MW and is nearly as much as our two 425MW units combined. We also had anticipated a further two units, but all that was dashed as acceptance of carbon dioxide emissions was finally admitted and we became a pariah.

The coal that is used in power stations is extremely poor quality and for this reason is not shipped overseas. So, while there are some anomalies in attempting to reduce carbon emissions while exporting carbon producing fuels, it is not causing high coal prices in the thermal stations. The market is driven by the old basic economic principle of supply and demand. During the day power supplies are plentiful and the price is extremely low: Frequently in the negative region where the generators have to pay to remain online. The last few days have seen ~-$45Mw/hr in Queensland for extended periods. The converse is true at nighttime where supply is tighter and demand from thermal sources is greater.

The Chinese are a wily bunch of entrepreneurs. I sense, despite never having been to China (so forgive me please if I am wrong), that their approach is changing. As a child growing up, "made in Japan" meant absolute rubbish. Gradually they developed into being high level manufacturers. I think China is moving towards that position. However, their political ambitions may yet prove to be their undoing where in a similar economic position Japan went from strength to strength.

Coal fired stations will be around for a little longer yet. As they become uneconomic, they will close. They are mainly in private hands and the bottom line is king.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by Mr Brush

Look, Australia has basically lost the ability to complete large civil engineering projects to a good quality, on time, and on budget. We can't do it anymore. I just read that the costs of Snowy 2.0 (already years behind schedule) are now expected to DOUBLE. I've had some very minor peripheral involvement on Snowy 2.0 as a consultant (trying to fix something they've already stuffed up), but stopped doing work for them when the scale of their incompetence became obvious. Good $$$ to be made, but I just don't want them as a client ! Nucular?? (sic) - you have to be joking !!

when people talk not only about building nuclear... but the people running it day to day and maintaining it

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Dave

Kogan Creek was the last thermal power station to be commissioned in Australia and Millmerran was the second last. Kogan has the largest single unit in Australia at 740MW and is nearly as much as our two 425MW units combined. We also had anticipated a further two units, but all that was dashed as acceptance of carbon dioxide emissions was finally admitted and we became a pariah.

The coal that is used in power stations is extremely poor quality and for this reason is not shipped overseas. So, while there are some anomalies in attempting to reduce carbon emissions while exporting carbon producing fuels, it is not causing high coal prices in the thermal stations. The market is driven by the old basic economic principle of supply and demand. During the day power supplies are plentiful and the price is extremely low: Frequently in the negative region where the generators have to pay to remain online. The last few days have seen ~-$45Mw/hr in Queensland for extended periods. The converse is true at nighttime where supply is tighter and demand from thermal sources is greater.

The Chinese are a wily bunch of entrepreneurs. I sense, despite never having been to China (so forgive me please if I am wrong), that their approach is changing. As a child growing up, "made in Japan" meant absolute rubbish. Gradually they developed into being high level manufacturers. I think China is moving towards that position. However, their political ambitions may yet prove to be their undoing where in a similar economic position Japan went from strength to strength.

Coal fired stations will be around for a little longer yet. As they become uneconomic, they will close. They are mainly in private hands and the bottom line is king.

Regards
Paul

Hi Paul, you are on the money about Kogan for sure, Kogan breaks even at a ridiculously cheap price point per m/hr but the savings are never passed on due to the way the entire grid is being manipulated, Australia could have cheap power for centuries but as I said the current dogma will not allow it while we transfer our abundant wealth overseas so that they can have cheap power.

Dave

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

... As a child growing up, "made in Japan" meant absolute rubbish. Gradually they developed into being high level manufacturers. I think China is moving towards that position. ...

I think you are on the money, Paul. It almost seems like there is an inevitable economic "law of progression" - first you produce crap, lots of it and when you get really good at it you progress to quality.

• In the early 1900's the USA was not regarded as a quality producer like the UK and Germany,
• Korea also followed the Japan route,
• ditto Taiwan,
• ditto Thailand, with hiccups,
• and India?

We were in China not long before lockdown; it is so big and so complex. They do produce crap, but they also produce some very high quality stuff.

Virtually all Apple products have been produced in China; no one criticises their quality.

We saw lots of Chinese made Mercedes Benz cars. They are identifiable from German made Mercedes by:

• Letter "L" added to model number,
• About 150mm longer - all in rear seat leg room where owner sits,
• Better paint job.

I saw power tools that looked, felt and sounded like Festool at about half the Ozito price.

My theory is that the buyers for Aus Big Chains are so addicted to absolute minimal price that they just do not see the available quality options.