Katoomba Monthly Temp average set to be SMASHED!!! AGAIN!!!

**Bushmiller** · 9th February 2020, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by Beardy

Bushmiller I have enjoyed the insight from your posts on this subject and your practical approach so thankyou for that
Would it be fair to say that Australia’s situation is far more complicated than most countries due to our sparse population over a huge area compared to the much smaller densely populated European ones that can share/trade supply across the border or easily piggy back new technology onto their system ?

And with that, given we don’t know what form the “new” alternative base supply will come We can’t really set up infrastructure apart from tinkering adhock like we are with our present setup ?

Or am I misunderstanding the situation?

Beardy

Thank you for your kind words. I do have a slight advantage being directly involved in the business. However, I have to tell you that there is still a large range of views regarding climate change among my colleagues, many of whom I regard as friends. I am based in QLD after all and it is arguably the most conservative (think fearful and frightened here) state there is, although WA may rival it, but I have never even visited WA so I am even more unqualified than normal to comment.

Yes, Australia is in the invidious position of a small population and a vast land. Simple things become difficult. I think it was in another thread that the subject of transmission was dismissed as not being an issue. It is of course an issue in the same way roads are an issue. We are a relatively wealthy country so we get away with it, but every long road or transmission line has fewer people to pay for it than in most other countries. It is ironic that we have all this sun and all this space and still it is difficult to position solar farms economically. It is also ironic that back in the 70s and 80s Australia was a leader in solar development. The old story. There was just not the interest here for research and other counties where the sun hardly shone romped ahead. Even if we did not use it ourselves (because of our abundance of coal and other resources) we should have pursued it to sell onto other countries less fortunate than us with resources.

nother potential export lost. Oh, the benefit of 20/20 hindsight!

I think in some ways you have hit on the key to the problem. It is that we need a replacement base load system to the current coal fired stations (and the gas fired stations, except they tend to be more expensive to run, but are more flexible). None of the renewables for the moment (note please "for the moment") or unless there is a significant breakthrough, are in a position to reliably produce base load power. Base load power has nothing to do with size, although in the past it was indeed the larger stations that did this, but more to do with the ability to produce reliable power at any time. That is the crucial criteria: at any time.

Sure, we should be moving towards alternatives and if we don't life is going to become very difficult and much less attractive than it has been in recent times. I will still trot out my mantra that the alternative has to be economic or it will not gain traction, because of the competitive market.

What are the alternative base load options? Really? Sweet Fanny Adams your honour!

Currently we have coal but the only alternative is nuclear. In Australia in particular I doubt nuclear will fly for these reasons.

Nuclear plants are expensive to build and expensive to maintain. When they are built they tend to be larger installations to maximise the economy of scale (I have heard that there are some "pocket" sized plants being considered, but I know nothing about them to the extent they may not even have been built). Large plants do not suit Australia because of our relatively small grid (Megawatt wise, not distance). What do we do with the waste? Still no solution to that. What about safety if something goes wrong? Are they more susceptible to terrorist attack? No, but more of a disaster if they are "hit." And which one of you wants one in his back yard? No, no, no, we are not going to stick them out in the desert because there aren't any power lines and it is too costly to put them up and the government won't give them to us for free: This of course is the chant of the private owners. On top of that, the pay back period is going to be long (remember it has to be economically viable) and in the meantime a renewable might get sufficient traction that it becomes both cheaper and more reliable all around the clock!

There is one nuclear alternative that dispenses with some of the concerns above. It is Thorium powered nuclear, but nobody seems to be terribly interested primarily because you can't make bombs with thorium. If Chernobyl and Fukushima had been powered by thorium there would not have been the catastrophic disasters experienced in those two locations. However, that it a bit glib of me as thorium is a very different product. It's big advantages are that the half life of the spent fuel rods are nowhere near as long as the isotopes of Uranium and Plutonium and the reaction can be shut down at the flick of a switch thus eliminating the melt down potential.

However, no bombs and the initial reaction is quite a lot more difficult to establish. Incidentally, Australia just happens to have one of the largest thorium resources in the world.

I am starting to ramble, but on your last point we do need to know where we are going before we build roads just on the off chance.

Regards
Paul

**FenceFurniture** · 9th February 2020, 04:34 PM

Paul do you have any feel for roughly what % of our power needs to be base load?

**Bushmiller** · 9th February 2020, 04:38 PM

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

It's persisting it down - has been since lunchtime Satdy.

256km radar just now
Attachment 468440

Excellent news - the Currowan fire in the Shoalhaven is now extinguished. Funny thing is that on "Fires near me" there are still heaps of incidents - trees down! (and listed as Out Of Control

)

Brett

And there I was feeling very pleased that we had 40mm on Friday (looks like you could be getting nearer to 400mm!) and all but one of our tanks are full. Nearly 50,000L. We just ordered two more tanks on Thursday. I think that is what did it!

Regards
Paul

**Beardy** · 9th February 2020, 04:52 PM

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

This is an issue that complicates a great many things for us (not the least of which is transport infrastructure and cost). That is where more localised solutions become more practical like sharing Solar panels (buying elec from your neighbour), neighbourhood battery sharing in a mini-grid. That would also go some way towards getting around the problem of a roof that can't take panels (mine is asbestos we think), or are too shaded to be properly effective, and renters that can't get panels put on.

It is probably also the reason why our per capital emissions are higher than other countries which is why I don’t think it is a relevant point of data.p apart from its propaganda use.
Sharing of power with your neighbors is fine and panels on your house can make economic sense for the owner but it is in no way a solution to our problem of running public infrastructure and industry. Batteries are still not up to the task yet either

Curious as to why you can’t put panels on an asbestos roof? Is it just the installers that don’t want to touch it?

**Beardy** · 9th February 2020, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Brett

And there I was feeling very pleased that we had 40mm on Friday (looks like you could be getting nearer to 400mm!) and all but one of our tanks are full. Nearly 50,000L. We just ordered two more tanks on Thursday. I think that is what did it!

Regards
Paul

i have just installed an additional 100,000 litres of tanks to my place and they have already filled in the last couple of days

**doug3030** · 9th February 2020, 05:33 PM

..

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

I think that is all more to do with a couple of people wanting to argue with anything they can about my posts. Speculated timelines are a pretty soft target for that, but if it wasn't timelines it would be something - anything - else, just to be argumentative.

..
berternie.jpg

**rwbuild** · 9th February 2020, 05:35 PM

Lucky buggers, just looked at gauge, 3.5mm in 36 hrs

**Beardy** · 9th February 2020, 05:41 PM

Originally Posted by rwbuild

Lucky buggers, just looked at gauge, 3.5mm in 36 hrs

My gauge was overflowing at 200mm an hour or so ago so have emptied it to start again. Are you forecast to get a bit more ?

**FenceFurniture** · 9th February 2020, 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by Beardy

Is it just the installers that don’t want to touch it?

Pretty much. It's also a bit steepish and mossy. Apart from that I don't own it anyway.

**rwbuild** · 9th February 2020, 06:21 PM

Originally Posted by Beardy

My gauge was overflowing at 200mm an hour or so ago so have emptied it to start again. Are you forecast to get a bit more ?

Supposed to but don't hold much hope looking at the radar, big sandstone fence in the way.......

**FenceFurniture** · 9th February 2020, 06:53 PM

We had 193mm until 9am this morning, and I'd reckon we've had that much again since then. If that is right then it'll be a half a metre since Friday morning.

**Glider** · 9th February 2020, 07:04 PM

Originally Posted by rwbuild

Supposed to but don't hold much hope looking at the radar, big sandstone fence in the way.......

You're a fair way out of range of maritime weather, Ray. Normally, I'm right on the edge of it but the stronger East Coast lows, like the one we're having now, penetrate a bit further to the West. I haven't measured my guage but I estimate >50mm so far. The paddocks are greening up and we're in for a second Spring, not a day too late. Two weeks ago it was brown paddocks, no feed and a dry river bed.

I hope you get some rain soon.

mick

**rwbuild** · 9th February 2020, 07:36 PM

Yep but at least the catchment of the Lachlan-Wyangala Dam will get some of it, at least Cowra hasn't had to bring any water restrictions in yet and a lot of the farmers are getting some in the N & NW

**Bushmiller** · 9th February 2020, 08:58 PM

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Paul do you have any feel for roughly what % of our power needs to be base load?

That is actually quite a complex question and probably up for some debate.

It could be the generators that are always on line up to their normal loading. For example, at Millmerran we run at full load most of the time and only reduce load when there are limitations on our plant. Those limitation are primarily, but not exclusively, during elevated ambient temperatures. Other stations reduce load probably at times for similar reasons and sometimes also because it is not economic for them to run at a higher load with the prices being offered (actually price are not offered as it is a bidding system). So under these circumstances the amount of base load power is dictated by the night time demand during the week. It may be less at the weekend. That could be construed as the effective base load.

I think this base load would be between 50% and 60% of normal maximum loads for the day. Coal fired stations could be producing up to 70% at times but there are so many variables with solar and wind.

When I am next back on shift I will see if I can put some ballpark figures together just based on what I see over a few days. They will not be official figures and I am not sure that such a breakdown even exists.

The base load may be able to be defined as the minimum load on average at night and a base load station is one that contributes either wholly or partially to that demand. Any other load at other times may partially be supplied by the "base" load stations ramping up, if they have capacity, as well as other players coming into the mix.

One other point I should make about base load stations is that they are often not very flexible at lower loads. To give an example, it might be cheaper to stay on line at a very low (or even negative) price than coming offline completely and restarting. Restarting a coal fired station is costly and sometimes protracted. The gas turbine stations, some of which are completely unmanned can come on (and off) at the flick of a switch. One ex colleague previously worked at a facility near us and he would log in on his phone from home, start the machine and drive in to see if everything had gone as expected. Another ex colleague now controls a number of gas turbines around QLD from his Brisbane base. These are the peaking machines. They only fire up when the prices are high. When the first colleague joined us he said that the gas turbines at his previous location had only run twice the previous year.

Regards
Paul

**Bushmiller** · 9th February 2020, 08:59 PM

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

We had 193mm until 9am this morning, and I'd reckon we've had that much again since then. If that is right then it'll be a half a metre since Friday morning.

Whoa! I'd be participating a little more on the boating section of this Forum.

Regards
Paul

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