Thread: strike while the irons hot

Great work little Johnny Howard better than Keatings 30c to USA $
Unless of course you were getting tipped in US $

Originally Posted by wheelinround

Great work little Johnny Howard better than Keatings 30c to USA $
Unless of course you were getting tipped in US $

How do you know its little johnny?? is the AUD strong or is the USD weak?

whats the conversion to EUR like?

My guess it isn't anything to do with the AUD its the USD going down, and the AUD staying the same

Originally Posted by Gra

How do you know its little johnny?? is the AUD strong or is the USD weak?

whats the conversion to EUR like?

My guess it isn't anything to do with the AUD its the USD going down, and the AUD staying the same

Both, actually, but a democratic Government of whatever description has only a minuscule influence on the exchange rate of a currency, and Australia as a whole has a minuscule influence on the world economy.

Weak USD, the Chinese are getting rid of it as fast as they can, also the arbitreurs buying Aus interest with Japanese loans. I agree with Frank and Gra the government makes very little difference. I jumped on short on the A$ a few years back as there was a short selling spree going on. Economic fundamentals remained the same and Johnny was the man, got down to US46c. Loved it!

Unless you are spending a lot of money the currency doesnt make that much difference. It gets eaten by fees and couriers.

It is the IDIOT! He has borrowed so much that the value of the US Dollar is down significantly!

Originally Posted by Gra

How do you know its little johnny?? is the AUD strong or is the USD weak?

whats the conversion to EUR like?

My guess it isn't anything to do with the AUD its the USD going down, and the AUD staying the same

"My guess"? ...How do you know?

It is no state secret. In fact it is very simple. Good economic management = strong currency. Mismanagement = weaker currency.
Comparative prices or exchange rate is a reflection of how each currency compares. Had the Australian dollar only gone up in relation to the US dollar one could argue that we kept steady and the US dropped, still steady is not a bad achievement yet that is not the case at all. Our currency has gone up in relation to all the other currencies including the Euro.

To say that governemts have littel influence in the value of the currency is a ridiculous statement. Governemt's economic management have everything to do with the aquisition power of a currency. It is true that currency value when floated is at the mercy of offer and demand and things like good economic management and zero or very low inflation can temporarily tip investors to dump it in favor of one that promises higher returns (interest), and the small Australian economy reflects this. In fact the Australian dollar is the most traded currency on the planet.
So...the value and long term prognosis of the US currency is the result of US policy, nothing else.

For those who even after 10 years of observing the "virtues" of our local NSW mafia bosses, are frothing at the mouth to return Labor in federal politics, watch this space. Once the "money for nothing" has disappeared, the wheel will turn and this time it will take much less that it took Bob and Paul to stuff it up.
Our exchange rate, our low inflation, our low unemployment and our high investment rate are all the result of good economic management.

Turned into a political bandwagon thread pretty dang quickly with none of the posters actually getting close to why it it is so strong.

To turn back to original post, this is one reason why a strong Aussie peso is not good for the economy, increased imports which places more pressure on interest rates.


Oh and for those who want to know why the dollar is so high its the resource boom and percieved advatages in interest rates. Nothing to do with who's in power, we are a resource based economy.

Originally Posted by Marc

"My guess"? How do you know?

20 years in the financial markets........


What I was saying, as I didn't have access to current rates was that it was more likely that the USD fell in value more than the AUD raised in value.

As for the amount a Govt influences the value of a CCY, it can help but not in the short term. It can only influence using long term strategies (As ALL of our political parties are so short term focused they will never influence it.... ). The central bank will have more influence on the value of the CCY (The Setting of interest rates), as the reserve bank is a separate entity from the "govt" in this country (in name at least) the govt doesn't have a large say in what they do the board does. (They can make some serious hints i'm sure though)

Originally Posted by Marc

"My guess"? How do you know?

It is no state secret. In fact it is very simple. Good economic management = strong currency. Mismanagement = weaker currency.
Comparative prices or exchange rate is a reflection of how each currency compares. Had the Australian dollar only gone up in relation to the US dollar one could argue that we kept steady and the US dropped, still steady is not a bad achievement yet that is not the case at all. Our currency has gone up in relation to all the other currencies including the Euro.

To say that governemts have littel influence in the value of the currency is a ridiculous statement. Governemt's economic management have everything to do with the aquisition power of a currency. It is true that currency value when floated is at the mercy of offer and demand and things like good economic management and zero or very low inflation can temporarily tip investors to dump it in favor of one that promises higher returns (interest), and the small Australian economy reflects this. In fact the Australian dollar is the most traded currency on the planet.
So...the value and long term prognosis of the US currency is the result of US policy, nothing else.

For those who even after 10 years of observing the "virtues" of our local NSW mafia bosses, are frothing at the mouth to return Labor in federal politics, watch this space. Once the "money for nothing" has disappeared, the wheel will turn and this time it will take much less that it took Bob and Paul to stuff it up.
Our exchange rate, our low inflation, our low unemployment and our high investment rate are all the result of good economic management.

This post probably needs to be moved, it has little to do with woodwork at the moment. As for the economic argument this bloke here has some interesting things to say http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/default.htm He has cred as being independent

Originally Posted by Sebastiaan56

This post probably needs to be moved, it has little to do with woodwork at the moment. As for the economic argument this bloke here has some interesting things to say http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/default.htm He has cred as being independent

ABC and INDEPENDENT can not be spelled in the same sentence.
ABC goes with words like agenda, labor, left wing, socialist, and other words to that effect.

Originally Posted by Gra

20 years in the financial markets........

It was you who asked "how do you know" not me, I was just repeating your question and answering my own way.

As for your credentials, hey, this is just chat, no need to say what you do. However, since you hinted to it, I must say that "20 years in the financial markets" does not say much at all. One can trade shares, real estate or be an accountant and still have no clue of macroeconomics.
Of course economist also haven't got the faintest idea since all they do is look backwards and assume that what they see will apply in the future.

To conclude, it is my opinion (and the opinion of many people much more informed than me), that each country's currency is the reflection of that particular country stand in the world economic arena. If someone can argue credibly that the strength of the Swiss the German and the UK currency and the weakness of the US are a product of chance I would like to hear such discourse.

Originally Posted by Marc

As for your credentials, hey, this is just chat, no need to say what you do. However, since you hinted to it, I must say that "20 years in the financial markets" does not say much at all. One can trade shares, real estate or be an accountant and still have no clue of macroeconomics.
Of course economist also haven't got the faintest idea since all they do is look backwards and assume that what they see will apply in the future.

Good to know, now all the world knows that political prejudice is a better guarantee of competence in macroeconomics than a doctorate or experience in the financial markets. I suppose you voted for Keating against Dr Hewson, then.

To conclude, it is my opinion (and the opinion of many people much more informed than me), that each country's currency is the reflection of that particular country stand in the world economic arena. If someone can argue credibly that the strength of the Swiss the German and the UK currency and the weakness of the US are a product of chance I would like to hear such discourse.

Do you at least understand that this is a truism nobody has argued against and that the point is what makes the "stand"?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sebastiaan56 This post probably needs to be moved, it has little to do with woodwork at the moment. As for the economic argument this bloke here has some interesting things to say http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/default.htm He has cred as being independent

Originally Posted by Marc

ABC and INDEPENDENT can not be spelled in the same sentence.
ABC goes with words like agenda, labor, left wing, socialist, and other words to that effect.

The "He" referred to is Ian McFarlane, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia for virtually all the 11 years of the Howard Government. But you dismiss his opinion because it has been broadcasted by the ABC.
I think you proved beyond dispute your credibility.

Let's play the topic and not the man gents.

BTW, anyone who managed to lower the Aus dollar in the current environment would have to be a fiscal numb-nut. With China demanding resources at their present levels you couldn't help but maintain a decent balance.

I am more worried about what long term investment is being made while we are enjoying the boom times.

We should be investing in rail and port infrastructure, research, knowledge workers, water purification plants, sustainable long term (clean) energy sources and a bunch of other critical issues. Instead, this country is focussed on the short term and the price of a plasma. We are a sad lot really.