Thread: COVID19 Tracking App - would you use one?

Originally Posted by markharrison

In the capitalist societies we live in (even more so in the USA); unions have a poor reputation amongst people that would most benefit from being a member of one. The outcome of a successful campaign to demonise unions as fundamentally corrupt; by those in power that actually are corrupt and really don't have working people's interest at heart! This is an excellent example of why unions are important; and why the suppression of unions has -- and is -- a bad thing for working people.

Frankly, that is the sort of BS you would expect in a failed state.

I'm sure it's going on there, and you're not hearing about it. The issue is simple - when you divert masks toward the critical areas of hospitals, then the support staff doesn't get the same quality in masks. We mention it here in the US because we're not afraid of reality.

China may have the upper hand on something like this because they can manufacture the masks, but they also have the upper hand in that they can squash anyone who talks about it. We don't do that here.

The reality so far is that nobody in my wife's clinic has gotten covid and I didn't figure they would, either, it was just an illustration of human nature, not unions or capitalism.

The nurses in the clinic are union/collectively bargained. The union didn't have any issue with it, either.

What's interesting is that when this is brought up, because you guys don't seem to have an objective view of the news and there's a strong "we aussies are better and care more, thus we'll say that and ignore the real numbers", you perceive something different than reality. Part of that is the fault of the news.

The assumption that the case rate in the US is at 1% of the population is errant. The one reliable stat so far with covid is that in organized countries, the death rate is around .005% or a little bit lower. Health care here is far superior to there. You don't have to believe it, and the news may not say that, but the resources spent here and the potential for economic gain (and the competition) is why. We have stratified levels of coverage and access isn't universal, but seeking care here at the highest level results in more resources and treatment per patient than anywhere else in the world. Literally something like 18% of our GDP is spent on it and though we're something like a 20th of the world's population, i'd guess more than half of the advances in medicine come from ehre.

Saying that, with about 350 million people in the US, we have 137k deaths so far.

Australia's population is 25 million - you have about 10k deaths so far.

The likely total case rate and death rates in both countries are just about identical. Do the math.

The obnoxious thing here in the middle of this isn't too little regulation, it's too much. Our medical system has scads of potentially viable vaccines. I live 5 miles from the health system that developed the polio vaccine. They had a viable vaccine to try that creates covid antibodies in mice in about two weeks. Why? Because they have a gigantic vaccine practice and already had vaccine options for sars. Thus far, nobody has been able to try the vaccines because our government thinks that treating lots of people who didn't want covid is ethical, but allowing 25 volunteers to sign up to try a vaccine and create a fast path toward gathering data presents an ethical dilemma. Likely, zero of them would die. The potential payoff is saving hundreds of thousands around the world from death.

It's just plain goofy hearing about how well covid is controlled elsewhere, but not here, only to find out the overall death rate per capita is about the same or worse. Pure propaganda.

We can see real time data at health systems here. My wife's place of employment is a gigantic 600 bed hospital. In the middle of the first outbreak, the hospital notified staff twice for resource updates - each time, they had covid patients in the low teens, about half of those in the ICU on ventilators, and the other half just in the hospital. In some parts of houston and early on in new york, the health systems were at capacity. Each time they got close, we shut down.

The notion that we're going to have a vaccine that's viable and ahead of virus mutation is a nice academic ideal. It doesn't appear to match reality very well so far.

I do work for unions (benefits). I think on average, the union workers are better off than their non-union counterparts but the wage package here for most trades is around $60 an hour for unskilled labor and $70-$100 an hour for skilled labor. The reality is that not all projects can afford those labor rates. The cost of providing benefits and pensions to retirees are generally half of the wage package, perhaps slightly more on the low side (the laborers may have hourly wage rates around $25 US, which is about $35 there I would guess) and a big retiree population to care for. Retirees get a large percentage of their pre-retirement income as a pension income and generally get free or near free medical through age 65.

You cannot bid residential work at $80 an hour on average, people won't pay for it. You end up with a system that is a combination.

The unions are smart enough here to realize that if they make too many demands of the private systems, the number of employed men and women will go down and they won't be able to take care of their retired members. Reality isn't as simple as you think it is.

Originally Posted by D.W.

Australia's population is 25 million - you have about 10k deaths so far.

The likely total case rate and death rates in both countries are just about identical. Do the math.

Actually to date we in Australia have only had 108 deaths from COvid. We haven't even had 10k identified cases yet. Not sure where you get your information from but maybe you should redo YOUR math.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers | Australian Government Department of Health

Let's have a look at a society that lives mostly by it's production here (we don't have mineral or surplus energy resources that allow us to live in a false reality)

PPP GDP per capita in the US is nominally higher than australia. Once you normalize the GDP for purchasing power, it's much higher than australia (About 25% higher). PPP GDP checked for dispersion is probably the best measure of standard of living from one country to the next. You can assert life expectancy is, but that ignores individual choice by people.

Health care here is same day usually at your PCP's office for anything if you want it to be, and walk in options elsewhere (covered by insurance are practically unlimited - even in rural areas). Specialist access is pretty much immediate with waiting only for the most notable practitioners - e.g., if you are a baseball professional and you want T.J. surgery by the best surgeon, you may have to wait for him. IT's probably worth waiting. If you just want shoulder surgery as a layman from a highly rated surgeon, access is pretty much immediate.

If you are indigent, you get a monthly income, free health care, free food, and free or subsidized living accommodations, internet access, assistance with utility bills. We have a gigantic socialist safety net that people like to pretend is not there. There is one condition that you need to meet to get it - you have to spend down your own personal assets first before qualifying. you want the government to cover your expenses and keep your own money? Tough. These rules are often skirted by folks who qualify for disability and spend down their recorded assets, but then work under the table in the cash economy on the side here.

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separately, the median income in the US here per individual (not full time, but across all individuals) is $40100 as of last year. In aus, it's about $50k aud, but adjust that to currency, and that number is equivalent to $33k in USD. Adjust for purchasing parity (the strength of a purchasing dollar, as to what you can actually buy) and australia suffers about another 10%. So the median income is about 75% in actual standard of living there.

You can create situations where an american could get themselves in trouble with that, which is refusing to find a job with benefits and going uninsured. That's not necessary here, and is stupid, but the volunteers who do that are often self employed and they choose to forgo coverage. I think it's a bad decision, but it's your right here. coverage for a healthy individual age 40 is somewhere around $4k a year. There's an urge, especially for people starting businesses, to put their wellbeing aside. For younger individuals, it's magnified (and their cost of coverage is even lower, perhaps 5-7% of their total income). The tax system is hugely progressive, so even if those individuals pay social safety net taxes, they often pay nothing in federal income taxes (or get a credit in return for being below a certain wage level). Health care is subsidized further for people below poverty levels.

The picture painted around the world based on "pat ourselves on the back because we're not the US" is idealistic pandering.

It's popular here to talk about how great it is everywhere else because of the opposite factor - people love to believe they're driving a really tough road when they're not.

I've got an English friend who is an engineer - he's retired, grew up in England and couldn't get an engineering job as a child because his dad was a joiner. The class system there isn't as strong as it used to be, but it's meaningless here. You want to be a hematologist and your dad worked at mcdonalds? You don't have to hide it. You may find an employer who is clamoring to give you a shot because they'd just love to have you as a newsletter story.

This friend of mine just watched his father die in England in a nursing home over a period of about a year. He is fabulously liberal (hates trump, of course), but says to me all the time "you have no idea how lucky you are to have been born here. No idea. " Actually, he says it in an admonishing tone. I suppose he was used to teh customer service type setup here with end of life care and it's not as responsive, expensive or as clean in the UK and there are fewer options. He thought overall, the level of care there was unacceptable. I reminded him that it cost half as much and as a cheapskate, I'd choose the cheaper less responsive option if it was available. He wouldn't.

When our european guests (from denmark, london and scotland) come here, they first look for gunshots and four wheel drive trucks (due to the farcical shows marketed overseas), and then instantly want to go on a drinking and eating binge due to the taste and low cost of the food and services here relative to europe. They talk about the fat shaming shows in the UK, so we help them find the "biggies" when we're out walking around. That's what they're looking for, but they seem to want to come here often and don't think that it's fair that we don't have a mortgage.

Originally Posted by doug3030

Actually to date we in Australia have only had 108 deaths from COvid. We haven't even had 10k identified cases yet. Not sure where you get your information from but maybe you should redo YOUR math.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers | Australian Government Department of Health

my mistake, that's cases. You guys may be a special case in that you're not generally a tourist destination for western europeans or chinese tourists (which are how the virus was delivered here in huge numbers before it was detected).

The rest of my commentary above holds. In places where the system is like yours (western europe) and the virus was introduced in large numbers, the outcome has been similar. Except we really haven't seen an overwhelmed health care system other than in newspapers. We have seen ICU fully subscribed, but health care utilization here is down about 30% due to the drop off of elective an delayable items, so the health care system is on the other end - it's underutilized and hurting financially because of it, not experiencing a windfall due to a packed house.

You lost me at “living in a false reality “. I think you may have been digesting too much Donald Trump rhetoric.

Originally Posted by D.W.

my mistake, that's cases. You guys may be a special case in that you're not generally a tourist destination for western europeans or chinese tourists.

Yes we are.

The difference is that our leaders took it seriously and despite a few mistakes have put measures in place which have actually helped contain the situation, whereas your president is on record as saying that it will just go away by itself.

Originally Posted by D.W.

my mistake, that's cases. You guys may be a special case in that you're not generally a tourist destination for western europeans or chinese tourists (which are how the virus was delivered here in huge numbers before it was detected).

We get about 1.4 million Chinese visitors a year to Australia

Per 1000 inhabitants Australia gets 265 international tourists where as USA gets 191

The top countries represented are, from the top China, New Zealand, USA and UK, Japan, Singapore and India, Malaysia, HK and South Korea

The irony in this thread is palpable. Only 15% of respondents would download the COVID app without reservation. 33% said never, and another 32% would, but only if they were assured of its security, despite the government having provided those assurances with its introduction. Yes, we acted early and our feds coordinated a nation wide plan of management. The majority of our citizenry have cooperated well, but so have they in the U.S. because fear is a great motivator. We went early and hard and fortunately even our neo-cons decided to listen to the experts for once.

Putting sh*t on another person's country is way out of line IMO. D.W. is right saying that our information mostly comes from the press. That source is selective, commercially and politically motivated, and frequently inaccurate. And don't get me started about the internet.

I lived and worked in Manhattan for a number of years and was staggered when I heard friends' attitudes and opinions about what goes on in the States when we came home on leave. They were so wrong. I still subscribe to the NY Times, but that's only a small slice. You have to live there.

Australia was lucky to have a government intent on producing a balanced budget when the rest of the G20 were spending on infrastructure in these times of low interest rates. I said lucky, not necessarily sensible. Dumb luck. What the U.S. and others wouldn't welcome at present is another large addition to their deficit, hence the need to get back to work asap, tragically at a cost to human life.

I was interesting to learn that Huawei relies on U.S. semi-conductors for their 5G network. I believe Washington "snapped its fingers" and told their manufacturer in Taiwan to turn off the tap to China. I guess the poms will now have to look elsewhere. America leads the world in technology and daylight comes second.

There's lots of things I don't like about the U.S. system; same with Australia's. But let's not start patting ourselves on the back. Even our record period of growth was only due to migration. Take that out of the equation and GDP would have flatlined.

mick

Originally Posted by Glider

Putting sh*t on another person's country is way out of line IMO. D.W. is right saying that our information mostly comes from the press. That source is selective, commercially and politically motivated, and frequently inaccurate. And don't get me started about the internet.

Not what I did, but never mind. My commentary was on the way health care workers (and more generally, workers) in the USA have been let down by the way unions have been emasculated and this is the consequences of it. Hardly a controversial opinion when the people responsible for doing this openly brag about it. To give just one example, see the Koch brothers.

I work for a large Australian multi-national healthcare company. I am privy to information about testing rates here and abroad. I am not authorised to share this information.

On Friday, I became aware of the positive test rates for Austin, TX. I am very, Very, VERY, V E R Y, concerned about where those numbers are heading. The person that communicated that information is an officer of the company. The numbers are totally credible based on the source; to me.

I am not an epidemiologist; I'm not even a medical professional, of any kind. The people that run this company are though, and I do have education in higher mathematics. I understand these numbers.

But, to you and anyone else reading this, of course; I'm just some guy on the internet. Don't just accept what I, or anyone else, says without doing your own verification.

Search for positive test results; asymptomatic and symptomatic. Luckily, being numbers -- therefore kinda fact based -- they are not very likely to be featured on Brietbart, Fox, InfoWars and similar because it would kind of undercut their story...

Originally Posted by Glider

I lived and worked in Manhattan for a number of years and was staggered when I heard friends' attitudes and opinions about what goes on in the States when we came home on leave. They were so wrong. I still subscribe to the NY Times, but that's only a small slice. You have to live there.

Which, in my extensive experience with working in the USA, far exceeds the average USA citizen's knowledge of what happens outside of the 48 contiguous states. I have literally had the "Wow you speak great English" response. For real! Admittedly, that was NC, not NY. Even cab drivers in NY know where Australia is, but their knowledge of Australia was kinda limited to Steve Irwin and similar cultural stereotypes.

Originally Posted by Glider

Australia was lucky to have a government intent on producing a balanced budget when the rest of the G20 were spending on infrastructure in these times of low interest rates. I said lucky, not necessarily sensible. Dumb luck. What the U.S. and others wouldn't welcome at present is another large addition to their deficit, hence the need to get back to work asap, tragically at a cost to human life.

The perception of the "balanced budget" that our government was what they were trying to project anyway. The budget reality is quite different.

We are lucky though. Lucky the government didn't react with the ideological brickbat they used on the opposition when they were in government during the GFC. Lucky that our conservative government took broad advice and acted on it with rational responses. There are things that are not perfect and I would do differently but overall a solid B+, in my non-conservative opinion.

Originally Posted by Glider

There's lots of things I don't like about the U.S. system; same with Australia's. But let's not start patting ourselves on the back. Even our record period of growth was only due to migration. Take that out of the equation and GDP would have flatlined.

On this we agree. No system is perfect; nor will there ever be one. All democracies rely on all parties (in the more broad sense than political parties) acting in good faith. Unfortunately, there is a significant portion of conservatives in Australia that are looking to the USA for inspiration. I don't think that is ultimately useful for conservative politics because there are so many differences between the US political system and ours. I do not see politics as practiced in the contemporary USA as a great role model, on either side.

We are long long way away from being through this. This is not even the end of the first act of this tragic play.

Unfortunately the incompetence of the US federal response (and other similar minded jurisdictions like Brazil et cetera) have probably condemned humanity to live with COVID-19 and its successors forever. That said, there are so many countries where this was going to be the case anyway because they do not have the resources to deal with it; it was going to happen anyway. It's just worse than it could have been if the USA had competent leadership. Describing the USA leadership during this period as incompetent is the kindest possible spin that one could put on it and hardly controversial.

Here be the source if anyone is interested: COVIDSafe * GitHub

Not sure if its been mentioned in the thread previously.....

Originally Posted by woodPixel

Here be the source if anyone is interested: COVIDSafe * GitHub

Not sure if its been mentioned in the thread previously.....

Can't remember if I did mention it but it bears repeating.

Without tracing its operation in a debugger, I did review the source code. It seems to be doing what they said it would; and nothing more.

My only criticism is that it does not give the user any feedback. I reckon letting know just the numbers of connections on a weekly basis would be useful feedback and to keep people interested.

I thought that the 30 minute contact time on the app was a bit long given the highly infectious nature of this virus.

We happened to be having lunch in a restaurant in Bondi recently with a close mate sitting opposite with the sun at his back. For the first time ever, we noticed droplets emanating from his mouth in the normal course of conversation. not unlike the fibres seen in a ray of sunshine. No lisp or emphatic consonants, just normal speech.

A good lesson learned and at social distance.

mick

I heard on the TV news this evening that in Australia the covidsafe app is yet to provide a single close contact that has not been already derived without it. They called it the $2 million failure.

Originally Posted by BobL

Sadly this looks like third world stuff.

I visited my dentist recently and was pleased to see he and all his employees wearing high end surgical masks. He has increased the ventilation through his rooms and he used dedicated aerosol extractor while working on my teeth Aerosol Extractor

I think lack of supplies pretty much occurred everywhere that there was a quick ramp up in virus cases. Everything is very strict here, too - meaning if someone had expired N95 masks, they were unusable, but most sites here (like amazon) didn't allow sale of expired masks to anyone else because they had a policy that anything like n95/p100, etc, would go to docs only. Some of that stuff ended up on ebay (I ran out of nitrile gloves to apply shellac and settled on expired gloves at an inflated price - annoying, but not exactly critical).

I think also that the hospitals (absolutely everything is digitally linked here) can tell quickly where something becomes a problem, so they're hoarding supplies for their ERs and ICUs and they're not going to use those supplies. The simple issue in this region is there just hasn't been much in terms of workplace transmission and the case load (outside of bar patrons and folks traveling to do relief work elsewhere) is pretty low.

The issue is more communication - someone is making decisions, and so far though they seem rude to individuals (like my spouse), they are on target.

Our local schools are planning to open in September - I don't think this will happen, but they have to pretend that they're doing it now. we were talking to one of the staffers yesterday at a local park and they are working through the summer (office staff at school stays there year around). They work in an enclosed area where ventilation moves air, but there is no ability to open windows due to modern "green" design and probably security. The staffer told us that they are more than 6 feet apart inside, so they've decided they're no longer going to wear masks. Simplified rules may meet overall goals, but four folks working in a large office area with stale air isn't exactly ideal.

regional population here is about 1/10 of all of australia, and covid confirmed cases are about the same as the australian total. 10 times the cases sounds terrible, but compared to actual hot spots in the US (or especially spain, italy, england, etc who have much higher per capita death rates thus far), it's not that much. Enough to make sure that it doesn't get worse. When we shut down initially (all essential retail locations still open, which is a nice test - people don't seem to be transmitting it very quickly in gigantic retail buildings), the new cases came mostly from outside of the region. It's easily controllable, just not convenient.