Thread: Katoomba Monthly Temp average set to be SMASHED!!! AGAIN!!!

Some time in the next 5 to 10 yrs we will have a very reliable cost effective energy solution, technology progresses exponentially, the fuel companies will be one of the biggest drivers of it because they have the most to loose, BP is already ahead of the others in this regard and the middle east oil cartels aren't all that far behind either, they will just milk the economy for all its worth between now and then and hedge their profits in both camps, am I cynical......yes/nah, just pragmatic.
Good investment opportunities, anything to do with copper, the mining companies are on an exploration drive at the moment looking for viable copper reserves, even here where I live they are currently exploring the extent of the known copper deposits around the old mines in the area, it has certainly divided some of the local farmers.

Originally Posted by NeilS

The economics of an east-west interconnector is beyond me, but the $5bn for Snowy 2.0 doesn't seem to have been insurmountable.

It is worth pointing out that Australia's infrastructure has been almost entirely built by governments:

• Roads
• Rail
• Ports
• Power
• Telecommunications
• Water
• Sewage
• Airports
• Hospitals
• Education
• Research
• Ext defence
• Air traffic control
• Police
• Courts
• Prisons
• Currency
• Libraries
• Museums
• Art Galleries
• Major sporting facilities
• Major entertainment facilities
• National broadcaster
• Garbage collection
• Playgrounds

Left to the private sector very few parts of this infrastructure would have been built. The overland telegraph would never have happened! And, where built by the private sector, little of it would have worked together. Every voltage and frequency known at the time would have plagued us.

Some of this infrastructure has been sold off to the private sector in recent decades, but it has always been governments that have built the nation by building the essential infrastructure.

The private sector may have built a few toll roads, tunnels and ports, but it is still governments that build the big ticket items like the NBN (even if they get it wrong) and Snowy 2.0 (yet to be seen how well that goes).

Small-government governments forget this and delude themselves since divesting themselves of so much infrastructure that everything can now be built by private enterprise. But, the returns on large scale long term nation building infrastructure are beyond the risk that private investment is prepared to take. That is still the role of governments, but those obsessed in national debt levels are slow to or incapable of showing any leadership on this.

Without appearing to be partisan, our current national gov seems to be particularly adverse to taking any leadership in this respect. A far cry from Prime Minister, Sir Robert Menzies, who in 1958 spoke of the triumph of the Snowy Mountain scheme:

"In a period in which we in Australia are still, I think, handicapped by parochialism, by a slight distrust of big ideas and of big people or of big enterprises ... this Scheme is teaching us and everybody in Australia to think in a big way, to be thankful for big things, to be proud of big enterprises and ... to be thankful for big men [sic]."

Dig him up and bring him back!

Just leave it at

Originally Posted by NeilS

...our current national gov seems to be particularly adverse to taking any leadership...

'nuff said.

Menzies inherited the SMS from Ben Chifley, a nation building vision of the then Labor Party, despite that parasite Angus Taylor recently trying to re-write history & crediting it solely to his side of politics. However there is no doubt that Menzies became a very strong supporter of it, despite the Torys opposing it initially. Sadly, such bi-partisan leadership is completely lacking these days. In fact the major driving force was Bill Hudson (The SMS Commissioner) who was able to out-maneuver the opposition to it that came from personalities on both sides of politics.

We need similar commitment from the public sector to modernise the national grid. It's do-able, but private enterprise has not got the incentive to fund it. And really, nor should they. I fully agree with Neil that there are fundamental nation building investments where government must step up and commit to. Why would we want to pay more for the privilege of private enterprise charging more (as they need to in providing return to shareholders) and delivering less (as they seek to minimise costs)?? This is a role government is supposed to play - delivering services when they are natural monopolies.

Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

I think I may have missed the reason why it is better to link WA to the eastern states, when they never have been before, especially at such a cost. Could someone just touch on that again please?

To some extent I'm just tossing numbers around.

$14B (AUD) is a starting point based on an inter-connector costing $1M/km. (and let me apologise for not including reference to the post containing the $1M/km figure.)
For comparison a big enough Li-ion battery to allow all SW WA's coal and gas fired generators to close might cost 2x that amount (AUD $30B) if supplied in 2030. However, if delivered in 2020 the cost is more like 4x the $14B cost of a suitable east-west inter-connector. So the scale of the potential investments are comparable, with the added benefit that the inter-connector would allow the $5B Snowy II "water battery" to also power WA.



More worryingly, over the next 15 years, approximately 11,000 MW of coal fired generating capacity is scheduled to be removed from the AUS market.
IMO the time to act is upon us right now. We can't postpone action till after Liddell closes (removing 2000 MW) in 2022. I very much fear that we are heading for a repeat of late 1970s.)

Not sure how many remember, but back when I was at Uni (mid 1970s), NSW came perilously close to a total state-wide black out. The then generating system was operating well below the level of demand -- as evidenced by the widespread rolling blackouts.
I remember stories in the press that in the event of a catastrophe, there was enough reserve heat in the about to be decommissioned boiler at Vales Point to allow the state-wide system to be restarted if the restart could be affected before the water cooled. (The issue was that coal supply at all the more modern power plants - in those days Liddell, Munmorah, etc - relied on electricity to run the generators.)

Originally Posted by NeilS

Any further brain waves on micro generation out there?

Every high rise building also has the potential for micro-generation of power with 'pumped' hydro.

• One tank at top and one at bottom
• Turbine near bottom.
• Pump up water with:

- wind mills on roof or
- wind turbines on roof an/or
- energy generated with lift braking and/or
- turbine on rain/waste water drop

• Trigger hydro turbine at peak times either into the building for local use or sold into grid at a premium spot price.

I have no idea of the in/efficiency of this.

Here are some articles with some calcs and analysis:

Highrise energy storage core: Feasibility study for a hydro-electrical pumped energy storage system in a tall building | TU Delft Repositories

Is energy storage via pumped hydro systems is possible on a very small scale? -- ScienceDaily

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...e_in_buildings

High-rise building mini-hydro pumped-storage scheme with Shanghai Jinmao Tower as a case study - IEEE Conference Publication

Some reservations from a non-systems perspective (like which property developer is going to allocate the premium penthouse space for no financial return to them?), but I won't be surprised if we don't get to see something like this develop.

Originally Posted by RossM

Just leave it at 'nuff said.

Menzies inherited the SMS from Ben Chifley, a nation building vision of the then Labor Party, despite that parasite Angus Taylor recently trying to re-write history & crediting it solely to his side of politics. However there is no doubt that Menzies became a very strong supporter of it, despite the Torys opposing it initially. Sadly, such bi-partisan leadership is completely lacking these days. In fact the major driving force was Bill Hudson (The SMS Commissioner) who was able to out-maneuver the opposition to it that came from personalities on both sides of politics.

Yes, Ross, I was aware of those details, but was trying to avoid appearing to be party political. But, happy for you to have pointed out the facts.

I thought a PM to PM comparison between those of the same political persuasion was sufficient for my purposes.

Agreed, bi-partisanship is sadly missing. Good leaders are comfortable with collaboration when needed. They don't always have to attack everything from their opponents to look statesman like.

Originally Posted by ian

More worryingly, over the next 15 years, approximately 11,000 MW of coal fired generating capacity is scheduled to be removed from the AUS market.
IMO the time to act is upon us right now. We can't postpone action till after Liddell closes (removing 2000 MW) in 2022. I very much fear that we are heading for a repeat of late 1970s.)

Not sure how many remember, but back when I was at Uni (mid 1970s), NSW came perilously close to a total state-wide black out. The then generating system was operating well below the level of demand -- as evidenced by the widespread rolling blackouts.
I remember stories in the press that in the event of a catastrophe, there was enough reserve heat in the about to be decommissioned boiler at Vales Point to allow the state-wide system to be restarted if the restart could be affected before the water cooled. (The issue was that coal supply at all the more modern power plants - in those days Liddell, Munmorah, etc - relied on electricity to run the generators.)

Ian

Liddell holds an interesting place in my work history as it's problems in about 1982 allowed me entry into the Power industry. In 1982 all four units at Liddell were dead in the water. Even in the days of government owned stations this was the worst of all scenarios. Liddell hd been run very hard early in life (first units commissioned in 1972) as it was the new king. Maintenance was minimal and they paid the price. They were also unable to attract staff to work in the country areas as everybody in those days wanted to live on the coast. Vales Point, Erraring, Munmorah and even Wangi ( it was still open then) were the places everybody wanted to live and work. We used to joke that there was a non-return valve at Singleton. Once you passed that going West there was no coming back. They re-opened the diminutive Muswellbrook power station and that was where I began my power station career. It gave me an entrance to the larger stations of Liddell and then Bayswater.

Liddell at about 50 years old is right on the absolute limit of it's useful life.

I think you are referring to "black start" capability when you are talking about the reserve heat in the boiler at Vales Point. The scenario is that a major system disturbance occurs which causes all the generators in the system to trip offline. About five percent of the electricity a station produces is consumed by the stations own electrical requirements. Many stations (probably most coal fired) are unable to restart, ironically, until there is an electrical supply available. Millmerran can't for example. The reason is that some of the largest electrical motors around are found in power stations. There are two motors in particular that are both large and difficult to start. One is the electrically driven Feedwater pump ( at Bayswater it was over 9MW), but the other, although often slightly smaller, the Induced Draft fan, is the worst. It is normally a six pole motor (this motor at Bayswater was over 8MW) and they take up to thirty seconds to reach full speed. During this time they consume four to five times the normal running current. So the equivalent of a 24MW+ motor!

Consequently today it is the gas turbines that will start first and re-establish supply. Other stations will return to service under direction from AEMO, the system operators. Actually Liddell had it own 13MW gas turbine for this purpose, but it was too small and, like a lot of things at Liddell, it did not work. Bayswater, which is the largest power station in Australia (providing you don't count Loy Yang 1 and 2 stations together) has no black start capability. There is within the industry a concerted effort to prevent a major blackout.The system has automatic load shedding to prevent major disturbances crashing the whole grid. That is what happened in the SA incident during the storms that wrecked the transmission towers.

I should add that most stations have emergency diesel generators. They are small. Millmerran has a 1.2MW machine. Bayswater has two 1.5MW machines, but they are only designed to run the emergency DC auxiliaries, emergency lighting and the beer fridge (only joking) and in this regard are to protect the equipment so it does not self destruct.

If nothing else I see a whole new wave of power station cognoscenti emerging from this thread even if we don't fix the temperatures in Katoomba.



Regards
Paul

This presentation on the hows of coal fired generation is interesting https://www.competitiontribunal.gov..../24893/GS8.pdf

Energizer home battery storage play charged by CSIRO technology | RenewEconomy

Paul, your insights to the power industry are fascinating, and very informative.

Originally Posted by rwbuild

Energizer home battery storage play charged by CSIRO technology | RenewEconomy

What I picked up on in particular was...

"Evergen has also secured agreements with several network operators to test the effectiveness of using distributed battery systems to manage demand and network stress."

This seems to me to be a significant aspect of current developments to overcome some of the challenges with intermittent/variable power generation from renewables.

Originally Posted by woodPixel

This presentation on the hows of coal fired generation is interesting https://www.competitiontribunal.gov..../24893/GS8.pdf

WP

A very good description.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I should add that most stations have emergency diesel generators. They are small. ... only designed to run the emergency DC auxiliaries, emergency lighting and the beer fridge (only joking) and in this regard are to protect the equipment so it does not self destruct.

You are joking?
I thought the beer fridge was the second most important item -- after the emergency lights

Originally Posted by ian

You are joking?
I thought the beer fridge was the second most important item -- after the emergency lights

Ian

It would be if we were allowed alcohol on site . Maybe that's why we are not .

Regards
Paul