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Thread: Price for timber to drop?
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4th January 2021, 09:33 AM #1Member
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Price for timber to drop?
Hi All,
According to some news articles, China used to buy 95% of Australia's timber; now they stopped to buy it at all: More Australian timber exports to China blocked as pressure grows to take trade dispute to World Trade Organization - ABC News
I'm wondering if timber is going to be cheaper for us mere mortals now. Did anyone notice falling prices for timber so far? Nothing has changed in Adelaide as far as I can tell. I'd love to stockpile a few cubic metres.
Cheers,
Andy
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4th January 2021 09:33 AM # ADSGoogle Adsense Advertisement
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4th January 2021, 10:07 AM #2.
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i serious doubt it.
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4th January 2021, 10:10 AM #3
I agree with Bob.
Time to look at other markets, India, Taiwan and Japan for example.
Yes Australia will take a short term hit, but the over dependence on a ideological opposite has resulted in this issue.Pat
Work is a necessary evil to be avoided. Mark Twain
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4th January 2021, 10:13 AM #4Senior Member
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Unlikely. Timber is a commodity with a global market like gas and oil, the global price would have to drop before it drops here. Otherwise they'll just sell it to the next highest bidder.
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4th January 2021, 10:34 AM #5
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4th January 2021, 10:53 AM #6Woodworking mechanic
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The news item I saw said the majority of the timber was plantation timber for the production of particle boards of varying descriptions
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4th January 2021, 11:13 AM #7Member
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I don't know what gets exported; my assumption was that it will be all kinds of timber.
China is now refusing to accept timber from South Australia and Tasmania, as well as Queensland and Victoria
Lobster got allegedly cheaper.
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4th January 2021, 11:27 AM #8
I don’t think it will change much in the hobby industry.
What was being exported, is really not what we buy a lot off.
Cheers Matt.
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4th January 2021, 11:46 AM #9GOLD MEMBER
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There is actually a shortage of Australian hardwoods at the moment as the fires has taken much of the stock.
Pretty much all of our house framing timber is imported too.
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4th January 2021, 01:34 PM #10The person who never made a mistake never made anything
Cheers
Ray
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4th January 2021, 01:41 PM #11GOLD MEMBER
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If anything, China "helped" keep the prices down. Worst country I have ever had to deal with. No loss in my opinion.
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4th January 2021, 02:01 PM #12Senior Member
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4th January 2021, 04:12 PM #13GOLD MEMBER
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There are shortages of structural pines at the moment. It pretty much happens each year, and they use the shortage to drive up prices. The mills actively try not to over-produce because that'll drive down prices. This year the story goes, due to Covid, the mills scaled back production expecting the wider industry to slow down also. But with the money that the government was throwing around, the wider industry continued to work pretty much unaffected. So the demand for the timber remained, while the supply cut back. Now at work, we have to call the wholesalers and ask what they have, and how much (if any) of what they have is what we can have, because they are trying to keep everyone working, but the timber just isn't there.
Late last year, the mills were negotiating with the unions, hoping they could work through the XMAS period in an attempt to catch up with the backlog. Unions being what they are, that didn't go ahead. The mills are going back to work on the 11th Jan, much the same as the wider industry. The unions (being as nice as they are), allowed the mills to have a few people come back early to do 'maintenance'. So when I go back to work on the 11th Jan, I get to play with about 3 packs of pine, which is not a lot. With a bit of luck, my holidays will be extended while we wait for more timber to arrive.
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4th January 2021, 05:05 PM #14
Look at ABARE figures and you will see that this figure is waffle.
Australia imports almost twice as much timber products, by value, than we export.
Exports to China are dominated by two very low value products:
- Hardwood wood chips, mainly plantation sourced, and
- Unpruned softwood logs destined for chipboard.
Neither of these are suitable for milling into sawn timber.
Slow down or demise of this trade is unlikely to impact on the type of timber that woodworkers use.
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4th January 2021, 05:56 PM #15GOLD MEMBER
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