Thread: breaking covid rules

Originally Posted by ian

posted by a forum member who has been Covid stuck in Canada since May 2020 -- and based on "Scotty from Marketing's" decision to reduce international arrivals by a further 50% looks to not make it back home till the middle of 2022 !!

If you don't mind me asking, why are you stuck there? I haven't even attempted international travel in the covid era, so I have no personal knowledge of the situation, but it seems from the press as though some people manage to come in and out whenever they want, whilst others are apparently stuck overseas. There was a news article quoting a (Queensland?) politician who said that many people had come and gone several times, with a few up to about 6 trips (from memory). A friend of my wife flew in with her entire family (all un-vaccinated) back to NSW to visit her parents, and is now heading out again, and a local kid and his girlfriend came back from (by coincidence) Canada around the middle of last year. Why can some people come and go seemingly at will, whilst others can't? Is it related to the (Australian) state they are coming to, where they are coming from, or just whether they can afford to pay for flights and quarantine? I'm genuinely interested to know - we read stuff in the media but normally don't get to find out the whole story!!

Aus system seems to be whoever can afford tickets and manages to get them. Number of plane seats / arrivals is limited but airline decides who gets the seats.

There is no central allocation / allowance / queue system.

Originally Posted by Warb

If you don't mind me asking, why are you stuck there? h

I have a child who was doing their final school subject at Calgary's National Sports School when Covid started and the Canadian-US border was closed in March 2020. My child's school moved to full-time on-line learning in March and also cancelled all April and June 2020 diploma exams. As a family our joint decision was to remain in Canada so my child could complete high school. (The relocation to Canada was to give my child the opportunity to both train for their sport and at the same time complete their high schooling.)
Pulling out of the Canadian school in March 2020 would have meant that my child would not have graduated from a Canadian school and because of differences in curriculum requirements between Alberta and NSW, once back in Australia, the child would have been required to repeat Years 11 and 12 as what is called a "mature age student". This is something we didn't want to contemplate, so we stayed in Canada, for what we hoped would only be a few months.

As of today (July 5, 2021) the Canadian-US border remains closed.
The last direct flights from Canada to Australia was in March 2020.
Even though we had booked a Qantas flight from Canada to Australia for June 2020, Qantas stopped flying to any overseas destination while the kid was still finishing school.
As non-Canadian residents, if we cross the US border we can't return to Canada. So we would find ourselves paying for hotel accommodation in LA while waiting for confirmation that we could board on a flight back home. For all of 2020, sitting, perhaps for months, in Covid infested LA was not an attractive option. I think at one stage, serum testing was indicating that 1 in 12 LA residents had been exposed to Covid.

The recent 50% reduction of flight capacity have just made life more difficult.
Earlier this evening my wife looked at the cost of travelling back to Sydney in September 2021 and the fare quoted is more than AUD $33,000 EACH. Paying a few thousand for quarantine is nothing compared to a having to find $100,000 just for three airfares.)



so as I said, not happy Jan.

Bugger.

Originally Posted by ian

so as I said, not happy Jan.

I understand the problem, but to be fair none of that is the Australian governments fault. It looks like the only reason you can't get back is the price of the flights, which is not really under the control of the government.

BTW, if you're not worried too much about airlines and routes, have another look for flight prices. There is a guy and his girlfriend in my town who flew back from Canada because his dad was sick, and he's now gone back again. I was talking to my wife last night, and we realised there was no way he could afford the kind of prices you are talking about so I did a quick search, not least because I may have to go and visit my aunt in the UK. Anyway, cheapflights.com.au are listing return flights, Toronto to Sydney (2 stops, LA and Fiji), 23rd September, for below AU$3K, the cheapest being $1800. I have no idea of the accuracy, or what other restrictions might apply, but they are saying they have seats available. Might be worth a look?

Originally Posted by D.W.

May be time to take a vacation to the states. We're generally walking around maskless here in and out of doors and there's little covid around (even the delta variant, which is present, but isn't spreading here like it is elsewhere because we've mostly got mrna vaccines and much of the rest of the population has had covid.

I don't know if you can get pfizer or moderna there, but if you can, have a couple of shots of it and head over here to the beach. It's like the old days.

D.W.

Interesting comment from a country that to date has had 33,722,290 cases reported and 605,567 deaths attributed to the virus as of 6 July 2021.

Australia on the other hand has had 30,803 cases and 910 deaths. Ah, but I hear you say look at the difference in population. Very true: So on a percentage basis America has had 10% of the population infected and 0.1% have died as a result.

Australia has had 0.1% infected and 0.003% have died as a consequence.

We also have to remember that the efficacy of the vaccines is not 100%. They vary from about 60% up to 80% (roundish figures) depending on which type has been administered and whether the second booster shot has been received. It would be a very confident and complacent person to wander freely in many communities. Incidentally, "confidence" is the state of mind experienced immediately before true reality manifests itself.



Regards
Paul

Ps: Source: COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (jhu.edu)

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Interesting comment from a country that to date has had 33,722,290 cases reported and 605,567 deaths attributed to the virus as of 6 July 2021.

Australia on the other hand has had 30,803 cases and 910 deaths. Ah, but I hear you say look at the difference in population. Very true: So on a percentage basis America has had 10% of the population infected and 0.1% have died as a result.

Australia has had 0.1% infected and 0.003% have died as a consequence.

On the other hand, the US have/are bouncing back, travel is possible, and life is getting back to normal. In comparison, half of Australia is in lockdown and (most importantly, I'm sure you'll agree) my holiday to Tasmania has been cancelled and everyone is out of stock of the spindle sander I want to buy.

Playing Devils Advocate again, the vast majority of deaths from covid are of people who are old and/or have significant underlying health issues. Earlier in this thread [edit: sorry, this may have been a discussion in an entirely different forum!] we touched on "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few", where we justified vaccination of aged care workers to protect their patients. In that case the few (those who didn't want to be vaccinated) were deemed to be less important than the rest of us. Now, on the other hand, we are suggesting that the needs of the 0.1% of Americans who died from covid outweighed the needs of the 99.9% who didn't. It's an interesting philosophical issue - how much harm/discomfort/restriction should we put on 99.9% of the population in order to protect the 0.1%. And for how long? Have the 0.1% been asked? I'm in my (late!) 50's, and my kid's schooling and lives in general have been stuffed around by covid. If I was in my 80's and living in a retirement home, I'm not sure whether I'd think I was being fair to them........

The vaccine is not 100% effective, as you say. It is also now blatantly obvious (and, in fact, has been from the start) that this disease is not going away. Like many other diseases we are going to have to learn to live with it. Currently Australia boasts low death rates, low infection rates and equally low vaccination rates. Unless we are live as a permanently isolated country in "perma-lockdown", I don't see how those numbers can last. Even with higher vaccination rates, that 60% efficacy rating of the vaccine means that 40% of the immunised population will still get, and spread, covid. The evidence suggests that those who are immunised experience less severe symptoms, but will that really help the old/weak/sick? Are we just delaying the inevitable (yes, I realise that death is always inevitable, but you know what I mean!)?

Devils advocate, as I said!!

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

We also have to remember that the efficacy of the vaccines is not 100%. They vary from about 60% up to 80% (roundish figures) depending on which type has been administered and whether the second booster shot has been received. It would be a very confident and complacent person to wander freely in many communities. Incidentally, "confidence" is the state of mind experienced immediately before true reality manifests itself.

the 2nd jab of vaccine that I am scheduled to get tomorrow is rated as being 94% effective against Covid.

However, as (after tomorrow) a fully vaccinated person I can still spread Covid should, perhaps I should be honest and say when I catch the disease.
Calculations in Canada suggest that 90-95% of people over 12 need to be vaccinated in order to protect the under 12s who at present can't be given the jab.
Most importantly, the reason I'm rolling up my sleave is that two weeks after the 2nd jab, my chance of being hospitalised or dying from Covid reduces to nearly ZERO. It's not that I won't get Covid or spread the virus to others, it's that when I do, the people I pass the infection onto will, if they are also vaccinated, not get so sick that they require hospitalisation.

I know it's been said by others much less qualified than I, but Covid should be seen as the 21st century equivalent of influenza -- the common flu.
Up until 15 months ago, people were still dying from the flu. The current global pandemic appears to have wholly replaced influenza as a cause of death.
As a society we need to accept this fact and get back to our normal, pre-pandemic lives.

Originally Posted by Warb

On the other hand, the US have/are bouncing back, travel is possible, and life is getting back to normal. In comparison, half of Australia is in lockdown and (mostly importantly, I'm sure you'll agree) my holiday to Tasmania has been cancelled and everyone is out of stock of the spindle sander I want to buy.

Playing Devils Advocate again, the vast majority of deaths from covid are of people who are old and/or have significant underlying health issues. Earlier in this thread we touched on "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few", where we justified vaccination of aged care workers to protect their patients. In that case the few (those who didn't want to be vaccinated) were deemed to be less important than the rest of us. Now, on the other hand, we are suggesting that the needs of the 0.1% of Americans who died from covid outweighed the needs of the 99.9% who didn't. It's an interesting philosophical issue - how much harm/discomfort/restriction should we put on 99.9% of the population in order to protect the 0.1%. And for how long? Have the 0.1% been asked? I'm in my (late!) 50's, and my kid's schooling and lives in general have been stuffed around by covid. If I was in my 80's and living in a retirement home, I'm not sure whether I'd think I was being fair to them........

The vaccine is not 100% effective, as you say. It is also now blatantly obvious (and, in fact, has been from the start) that this disease is not going away. Like many other diseases we are going to have to learn to live with it. Currently Australia boasts low death rates, low infection rates and equally low vaccination rates. Unless we are live as a permanently isolated country in "perma-lockdown", I don't see how those numbers can last. Even with higher vaccination rates, that 60% efficacy rating of the vaccine means that 40% of the immunised population will still get, and spread, covid. The evidence suggests that those who are immunised experience less severe symptoms, but will that really help the old/weak/sick? Are we just delaying the inevitable (yes, I realise that death is always inevitable, but you know what I mean!)?

Devils advocate, as I said!!

Warbs

The devil's view gives perspective and the philosophical question is interesting to put it mildly. Of course I also have to declare my prejudice as somebody who looks back on middle age as a missed opportunity as opposed to the beginning of the end. My take is that the virus tends to home in on those who have a medical weakness or are to some degree otherwise susceptible. The older age groups naturally are most exposed to this category. However, the stance of them being sacrificial by virtue on being the most likely to die in the near future is a difficult one to sell politically and a little bit hard nosed at best. Premature exodus from the mortal coil tends to be frowned upon, if it can be prevented.

Quite apart from the death statistics it seem not to be just another flu. Have a quick look at Post#1 in this thread for Rob Streeper's account of an early confrontation with Covid-19. Rob is a pharmacist, who has recently patented a drug for use in combating diabetes. I mention this to explain that it is not the rant of a panic merchant, but a reasoned, and worrying, account by a health professional.

I would agree that a plan should be mapped out for the future and made clear to the public. The bare bones ( four stage proposal by the government) have been rolled out without timelines, but the shortcomings of the vaccine should be made crystal clear and in particular emphasised it is not 100% effective. The vaccine itself and the rollout here in Oz is another issue that we cannot address retrospectively, but at least should be learning from our mistakes and making every effort to expedite vaccination much more rapidly than is current. I have to say I don't understand people who are not traditionally anti-vaxers, declining the jab. With our comparatively low levels of infections I can see an argument to set a timeline to become immunised or suffer the consequences of infection when restrictions are completely removed..

I don't believe we are at that point yet.

Regards
Paul

Originally Posted by Warb

I understand the problem, but to be fair none of that is the Australian governments fault. It looks like the only reason you can't get back is the price of the flights, which is not really under the control of the government.

BTW, if you're not worried too much about airlines and routes, have another look for flight prices. There is a guy and his girlfriend in my town who flew back from Canada because his dad was sick, and he's now gone back again. I was talking to my wife last night, and we realised there was no way he could afford the kind of prices you are talking about so I did a quick search, not least because I may have to go and visit my aunt in the UK. Anyway, cheapflights.com.au are listing return flights, Toronto to Sydney (2 stops, LA and Fiji), 23rd September, for below AU$3K, the cheapest being $1800. I have no idea of the accuracy, or what other restrictions might apply, but they are saying they have seats available. Might be worth a look?

I just mentioned this to my wife.

Sydney Airport is not currently showing any flights arriving from Fiji.
At best that $1800 air fare is a fishing expedition. At worst it's blatant bait pricing.

The Toronto to LAX flight (Air Canada or United or Delta) should be fine.
but LAX to Fiji and then onto Sydney is so highly doubtful (with the number of seats limited to 25 per flight) that as a family it represents too much uncertainty.

Originally Posted by Bushmiller

I have to say I don't understand people who are not traditionally anti-vaxers, declining the jab.

I suspect the problem is twofold. Firstly, in my area at least, we (unbelievably) have a large number of "covid deniers" who think the whole thing in a hoax. I kid u not, they believe it is just big business or [insert some derogatory name for the PM] trying to manipulate them - these people also won't wear masks, possibly because they don't fit over their tin-foil hats. The second reason is more understandable, however. I worked in big pharma for many years, and I know how long it take to develop a drug and do the required efficacy and safety testing. I have heard the experts views that "vaccines are different", but historically that hasn't normally been the case. Yes, there is a new 'flu vaccine every years to address the current strain, but that is not starting from scratch each time. The covid vaccine is new, and we don't have long term testing for it - the blood cot thing, and now the heart problems with Pfizer, demonstrates that problem. I took the decision to get vaccinated, because I'm old enough not to matter. But would I recommend my kids to be first in the queue?... their chances of a severe case of covid are minimal, so I think I'll maybe let a few others go first and see what happens!

On the "up" side, my wife has started telling customers that we will be doing the vaccine and as of yesterday there are 25 people who want it. For a while we were contemplating not even getting any vaccine because nobody seemed interested. So it looks like attitudes are changing!

Ranting
Hi,
I do not think the leader of the opposition's frenzied rantings against the PM and his government are helping the situation at all.
I doubt he could or would have done any better.
Regards

Originally Posted by A Duke

Ranting
Hi,
I do not think the leader of the opposition's frenzied rantings against the PM and his government are helping the situation at all.
I doubt he could or would have done any better.
Regards

I'm no fan of the current government but I have to agree, Albanese has not portrayed an aura of effectiveness, he's going to get trounced at the next election.

Originally Posted by ian

the 2nd jab of vaccine that I am scheduled to get tomorrow is rated as being 94% effective against Covid.

However, as (after tomorrow) a fully vaccinated person I can still spread Covid should, perhaps I should be honest and say when I catch the disease.
Calculations in Canada suggest that 90-95% of people over 12 need to be vaccinated in order to protect the under 12s who at present can't be given the jab.
Most importantly, the reason I'm rolling up my sleave is that two weeks after the 2nd jab, my chance of being hospitalised or dying from Covid reduces to nearly ZERO. It's not that I won't get Covid or spread the virus to others, it's that when I do, the people I pass the infection onto will, if they are also vaccinated, not get so sick that they require hospitalisation.

I know it's been said by others much less qualified than I, but Covid should be seen as the 21st century equivalent of influenza -- the common flu.
Up until 15 months ago, people were still dying from the flu. The current global pandemic appears to have wholly replaced influenza as a cause of death.
As a society we need to accept this fact and get back to our normal, pre-pandemic lives.

Ian

I am not sure that the two vaccines available in OZ, Pfizer and Astra Zeneca (both are not available to all people in Oz and some don't appear to be available to anybody) are better than 80% at most. I don't think the populace at large have been advised that they can still contract the illness or that they can still be infectious post vaccination. As you say, it minimises the effect on an individual and gives a reasonable amount of protection to prevent you dying as a result.

As to Covid-19 replacing the common flu, I would suggest that Covid-19 is a little more intense than that. The common flu may well have disappeared because of people staying at home and not contributing to community transmission. However Covid-19 replacing the common flu is like replacing Mussolini with Hitler or Stalin.

Covid-19 is a nasty, insidious disease.

Regards
Paul