Future of the Australian Electricity Market
I have started this thread as one to which general comments on the state of play in the electricity market can be added. This is partly because any time an associated electricity thread arises we almost inevitably gravitate towards electricity generation and in doing so tend to hijack the original thread. The latest example of this was in Glider's thread on electric vehicles.
Towards the end of that discussion a question was asked by Chris Parks on whether a media article was hype or reality:
Media hype??? Electricty market: Coal plants in peril as prices plunge
So perhaps I can start by giving my interpretation on that. The answer is both yes and no. The coal fired plants are already having to adapt to the increasing emergence of renewable power. Solar power has "stolen" the daytime demand. That in itself is a little fudged as there is some guarantee in place for the solar installations on prices and consequently it is not just market driven. The thermal plants can only reasonably make a sustainable income during what I have taken to calling the "sunless" times of the day. This implies that a station which relied on operating at high load for the majority of the day can no longer do so.
Back to the question, Are they in Peril? They are approaching this point but probably more slowly than the article implies. The oldest stations will be the first to be impacted severely, but all thermal stations are affected to some degree. Eventually of cours the stations will be in peril to the point where they will close as they are no longer viable. There is another issue in that the last seven coal fired stations were all built in Queensland. Theoretically, they are the newest and most efficient and would be the last to be shut down, but they are all in the same geographical location and while the Eastern Seaboard has a grid that is interconnected there are issues transporting power over these distances.
For the moment the thermal stations are required to control frequency (maintaining 50Hz) and solar power is unable to do this: Another reason why thermal stations cannot be immediately stopped.
Regards
Paul